UFC 285: Jon Jones vs. Ciryl Gane Head-to-Toe Breakdown
Jon Jones (26-1, 1 NC) will finally make his debut in the heavyweight division this Saturday in Las Vegas, as he takes on former interim champion Ciryl Gane (11-1) in the UFC 285 main event with the division's vacant title on the line.
Fans have been daring Jones to make this move since the height of his incredible reign as the UFC light heavyweight champion. Now that it's just days away, many people are uncertain how it will go.
While Jones has cemented himself as one of the greatest fighters of all time with world-class wrestling, merciless submissions and razor-sharp striking, he is smaller than Gane, who is considered the sport's top heavyweight striker. This will be Jones' first fight since a contentious decision victory over Dominick Reyes in February 2020, while Gane has been fairly active against the top heavyweights in the sport. Jones is also 35, with some pretty grueling fights on his resume.
This colossal clash in Vegas could seemingly end any number of ways. Given that it will feature two heavyweights in the Octagon, it could also end very suddenly.
Keep scrolling to see how Jones and Gane match up on paper, and for our best shot at a prediction.
Striking
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As every bit of pre-UFC 285 promotional material will remind you, Gane is one of the most technical strikers in the heavyweight division—maybe even the best outright.
His style is largely based on distance management and movement, as he moves much more fluidly than a typical heavyweight. He doesn't have a ton of firepower, but he lands enough—5.11 significant strikes per minute compared to Jones' 4.3—that he quickly wears his opponents down until they break. Just ask Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis how tough the Frenchman is to deal with.
Jones has a similar striking style to Gane. While he doesn't come from a striking background, he has great straight punches, great elbows and knees and lethal kicks, and he tends to make up for a deficit in the power department with accuracy and volume. He also manages range and distance very well, and he switches stances like Gane often does.
However, much of Jones' striking success stems from him usually being the taller, longer man in the Octagon. He will have a slight reach advantage against Gane (84" to 81"), but they're the same height, so it remains to be seen whether his style will be as effective here.
Given the similarities between Jones and Gane's striking games, this one may be a bit of a chess match while it's on the feet. In fact, if this turns into a kickboxing match, it will most likely be a game of inches.
However, we have to give the edge to Gane. He has the physical tools to deal with Jones' style, the volume to wear the bulked-up former light heavyweight champ down, and most importantly, the benefit of being well accustomed to trading blows at heavyweight.
Edge: Gane
Submissions
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While Gane and Jones should be pretty evenly matched on the feet, there is no reason to believe that will be the case in terms of submissions.
Jones has been learning jiu-jitsu for far longer than Gane, who only made his MMA debut in 2018. Jones hasn't just been learning it, either. He's been putting it to use in the Octagon with devastating consequences.
Who could forget his vicious standing guillotine against Lyoto Machida, and the way he let the Brazilian crumple to the floor in an unconscious heap? And how about his keylock against Vitor Belfort? Those were nasty finishes, and they're only two of the six fights that the former light heavyweight champ has ended with his submissions.
Gane has finished there of his 11 MMA wins by submission, and it's possible that he could lock Jones up in a crudely applied kimura or choke and muscle his way to a victory. Yet there's no denying that Jones is the more technical and more experienced submission fighter between the two.
Edge: Jones
Wrestling
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On paper, Jones' wrestling advantage should be even more pronounced than his submission advantage. The former light heavyweight champion was an accomplished collegiate wrestler, and his takedowns and positional awareness have always been a massive part of his game—arguably the most important part of all.
While Jones doesn't use his wrestling in all of his fights—proof of his proficiency on the feet—he has landed more than 40 takedowns in the UFC. He has landed three or more takedowns in seven of his fights.
Gane has completed some takedowns during his time in the UFC, but that hasn't been an important part of his game so far. There is ample reason to be concerned about his takedown defense after he was grounded four times by Francis Ngannou—who is not a wrestler—in his only UFC loss.
In his prime, few (if any) fighters could match Jones in the wrestling department. The question is whether he's still in his prime after three years away from the Octagon.
Edge: Jones
X-Factors
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Jones' X-Factor: Where Do We Start?
For Jones, this fight is all about X-factors.
Yes, he's one of the greatest fighters of all time. Yes, he has a better resume than just about anybody, and he has one of the most well-rounded and effective skill sets we've seen in MMA. But he's 35 now—not old for a heavyweight, but not young, either.
Jones also hasn't fought in three years. That could mean he is healthier and stronger than ever, but it's more likely to mean that his timing is off. He looked beatable in his recent decision wins over Dominick Reyes and Thiago Santos who, in the end, don't seem to be as good as we thought they were.
Is Jones past his prime? Will ring rust be a factor? Was his opposition catching up with him in his last few fights? If so, how will he cope with a quick and clever heavyweight like Gane?
Gane's X-Factor: Being a Natural Heavyweight
In terms of his success in the heavyweight division, arguably the best thing about Gane is that he doesn't really fight like a heavyweight. He lacks the power many of his rivals have, but he makes up for that with speed and technique more akin to what you'd find at light heavyweight or middleweight.
Those are great assets for him, but he'll need to alter his approach a bit against Jones. Instead of fighting like a light heavyweight to beat heavyweights, he needs to fight like a heavyweight to beat a light heavyweight.
In the first few minutes of this fight, he'll need to show Jones that weight classes exist for a reason, and that heavyweights do hit much harder than anybody else. He needs to bully Jones as much as possible in tie-ups. And he needs to hope his cardio will hold up until the former light heavyweight champ breaks.
Prediction
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On paper, Jones is clearly a more skilled mixed martial artist than Gane. He is nearly as good as the Frenchman on the feet—maybe better. He is much better in terms of submissions. He is leagues better in terms of wrestling. And he is exponentially more experienced than his foe, particularly against world-class opposition.
But this is one of those weird fights where the intangibles are likely to matter more than who puts their combos together better or who has better timing on their double-leg takedown. Most of the intangibles surround Jones.
Can he perform in a new weight class against a bigger, stronger man? Can he do at at 35 years old? Can he do it after three years away? Perhaps he is the greatest fighter of all time, but there is so much working against him here.
He may start strong, but before long, Gane is going to hurt him and swarm him.
Prediction: Gane by TKO, Rd. 2
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