2023 NFL Draft: Assets That Should Be Untouchable in Trade for Bears' No. 1 Pick
Surely to the surprise of nobody, the Chicago Bears—who hold the top pick in the 2023 NFL draft but already have a young, highly drafted quarterback in Justin Fields—are "leaning toward" trading said pick, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter.
Schefter also notes that multiple teams have approached Chicago about trading for that No. 1 overall selection, presumably to leapfrog the quarterback-hungry Houston Texans for whoever they perceive to be the best signal-caller in this class.
To most, the pre-combine and pre-pro day season favorite to be that quarterback is Alabama's 2021 Heisman Trophy winner, Bryce Young.
But when assessing what quarterback-needy teams should be willing to surrender in trade-ups to obtain Young or another other passer, it is important to keep in mind that several other quarterbacks in this class—namely C.J. Stroud from Ohio State, Kentucky's Will Levis and Florida product Anthony Richardson—are considered generally to be worthy of premium first-round selections as well.
Teams will have to weigh trading up for, say, Young, against standing pat and "settling" for one of those other names, knowing despite potential hubris that the first round of the draft is practically a crapshoot. In other words, there's a decent chance the quarterback you stay put and draft will be better than the one you want to trade up for.
If you're rolling dice regardless, why pay extra to roll? History isn't on your side if you do. In the Super Bowl era, a team has never traded into the top five and landed a quarterback who became its primary starter for more than six years.
And depending on where you set the bar, you could look at the list of 28 quarterbacks selected within the top 10 in the last 14 drafts and conclude that the only truly successful ones are Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow, with the jury possibly still out on Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Trey Lance, Zach Wilson and Trevor Lawrence.
Still not a good batting average regardless.
Behind Houston at No. 2, there are six teams with top-10 picks that are arguably in need of quarterbacks and could ignore those dynamics this draft season. Here are the assets they should resist shipping off to Chicago.
Indianapolis Colts
1 of 6
Future first-round picks, DL DeForest Buckner
The Indianapolis Colts would only be moving up three spots, so it's really hard to justify giving up a player as awesome as the 28-year-old Buckner, who was a first-team All-Pro in 2020, a Pro Bowler in 2021 and an inside force with eight sacks and 22 quarterback hits despite Indy's immense struggles in 2022.
The Colts were the NFL's worst team in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders, and yet their D ranked above the league median in that metric primarily due to the fact Buckner managed to rank as the 67th-best player in the entire league at Pro Football Focus.
The rest of a rebuilding roster should be tradeable, but the clear-cut talent deficit associated with giving up Buckner is too much to move up three spots with several other quarterbacks likely on the board.
Seattle Seahawks
2 of 6
Multiple first-round picks, WRs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett
In terms of draft assets, the Seahawks have plenty of other areas to address to support the quarterback they select, so giving up the No. 20 overall selection in addition to their fifth pick would be problematic.
Moving up from five is obviously the most plausible scenario, but Seattle shouldn't be willing to surrender that other first-rounder or a future first-rounder. An aging Quandre Diggs? Maybe. It's easy to get excited about Tariq Woolen, but he's expendable simply because his shiny rookie year could still be a fluke.
Surrendering Metcalf or Lockett also wouldn't make much sense if you want to maximize that quarterback's chances of succeeding. Both are exceptional starting receivers. And while Lockett isn't young anymore, it'd actually cost the Seahawks an additional $4.4 million to trade him, per Spotrac.
All other members of the roster and non-first-round picks should be fair game.
Detroit Lions
3 of 6
Multiple first-round draft picks, OT Penei Sewell, edge Aidan Hutchinson
Now that my philosophy on trading up within a semi-crapshoot has been established and my standard has been established, these become easier to figure out.
The Detroit Lions, like the Seahawks, have two top-20 selections. They can't give up both if they want to take a major step forward after nearly making the playoffs in 2022. They also shouldn't surrender their first-round selection in 2024, but I'm less bullish on that because it could be a late pick if they do come through with their new quarterback in 2023.
This obviously means current quarterback Jared Goff is on the table, although the real win is that the team would save more than $20 million by cutting Goff, according to Spotrac.
That said, it has be be taken into account that Goff is a decent player with a decent resume coming off a better-than-decent campaign. If you're going to trade him in for the unknown, you probably shouldn't be willing to cough up much more to move from No. 6 to No. 1.
At the very least, that means the Lions should refuse to deal their last two single-digit first-round picks, Sewell and Hutchinson.
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Las Vegas Raiders
4 of 6
Any combination of edge Maxx Crosby, WR Davante Adams, OT Kolton Miller
The Las Vegas Raiders might have to sacrifice future draft capital to move up from seven to one, and that might be worth it because now we're talking about leapfrogging several teams that need quarterbacks and this is a potential contender that truly needs a signal-caller following the release of Derek Carr.
That said, I still do everything possible to avoid giving up another first-rounder in 2024. Stick to second-rounders if possible, especially because there's still a good chance you're going to be able to draft a quarterback seventh and you could move into a higher pick that isn't the top selection for a lot less.
Active players can certainly be on the table, but the team should be strict about keeping at least the majority of its current nucleus. To me, that consists of the 25-year-old defensive standout Crosby, the superstar receiver Adams and the pillar left tackle Miller.
Trading any of those guys would actually be extremely costly from a financial standpoint, but splitting with one to land a quarterback like Young might be worth it considering there's a risk they could be left empty-handed otherwise. I just wouldn't surrender more than one of those guys and wouldn't include any other first-round picks under those circumstances.
Atlanta Falcons
5 of 6
G Chris Lindstrom, WR Drake London
My soft "never give up multiple first-round picks for another first-round pick" rule still applies to an extent here because I'm not convinced the Atlanta Falcons will be a great team in 2023 (Seattle, Detroit and Las Vegas are better positioned to contend), and that 2024 first-rounder could be primo.
Still, the only absolute non-starters for a team that had only one All-Pro for the 2022 season should be that All-Pro (Lindstrom) as well as 2022 first-rounder London. The former was rated by PFF as the 12th-best player in all of football last year, while London went over 800 yards as a rookie.
The team's next franchise quarterback will need both of those guys in their primes. And they're cheap right now anyway.
Carolina Panthers
6 of 6
Nobody/nothing is untouchable
The Carolina Panthers had just one originally selected Pro Bowler during a poor 2022 season. As Frank Reich takes over, it's hard to argue anybody on the roster isn't expendable to position Carolina to land its next franchise quarterback.
With all of the teams listed here owning higher first-round picks than the Panthers, they may have to make a move to land one of this class' top quarterbacks. And while a bottom-five team in terms of DVOA that is by all appearances rebuilding should try not to surrender its 2024 first-rounder, that shouldn't be ruled out either.
You could make a case for that lone Pro Bowler, Brian Burns, but he wasn't even a top-101 player at PFF and he's entering a contract year. Offensive tackle Taylor Moton would arguably cost them too much financially, but that might be a worthy pill to swallow to save draft capital, and the offensive line has enough talent for them to give up either Moton or still-unproven 2022 first-rounder Ikem Ekwonu.
I wouldn't give up multiple core players, but a combination of player and draft pick package makes sense for a Carolina team that really needs to address the quarterback spot.
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