Ranking the NBA's Most Pleasantly Surprising Teams This Season
Call an NBA team surprisingly good, and you'll subject yourself to the wrath of diehard message-board posters and team-site experts who knew all along that the squad they refer to as "we" was going to be better than everyone expected. Never mind that these tinfoil-hat-wearing types think their team, or "we," is always a playoff lock.
That's a risk we have to take as we try to pin down which NBA teams have most exceeded expectations from (and this is key) an objective perspective.
Preseason over/under win totals offer a good proxy for those expectations, but we won't just run down the list of squads on pace to beat their numbers by the largest margin. That said, it's notable that four of the five clubs featured here have already blown past those win totals.
We'll take more of a macro approach to assess the difference between where each of these teams theoretically should have been in the standings and where they actually are. Rebuilders and contenders for a top-three playoff spot are on equal footing here.
All that matters is the degree to which these teams have upended expectations in a positive way.
We already handled disappointments, so let's focus on the most pleasant surprises of the 2022-23 NBA season.
5. Orlando Magic
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A step forward was never out of the question for the Orlando Magic, who added Paolo Banchero to a strong collection of young talent and figured to get former top prospect Jonathan Isaac back at some point during the season after a multi-year injury hiatus. And if you only look at the Magic's season as a whole, a step forward is all they seem to have taken.
At 26-37 and almost certainly too far from a play-in spot to make a run, the Magic are still a bad teamโbut one that could add as many as 10 wins to last year's total of 22. That's respectable progress, and the upside is undeniable with Banchero running away with Rookie of the Year and Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. profiling as quality long-term starters.
That's all with a 5-20 start dragging down the full-season figures. Focus on Orlando's more recent stretch, though, and you might find a case to rank this group even higher.
Since Dec. 7, the Magic are 21-17. Road wins against the Golden State Warriors, Portland Trail Blazers, Philadelphia 76ers and Minnesota Timberwolves stand out in that highly successful chunk of the season, as do home victories over the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets, two teams that could very well meet in the Finals.
You don't typically see so many high-profile wins from a club giving at least 1,000 minutes to six players 24 or younger.
Orlando still needs better guard play. Markelle Fultz looks more like a solid starter than at any point in his career, but Jalen Suggs still can't put the ball in the basket and Cole Anthony profiles as a sixth man.
That they've had so much success with young forwards Banchero (20) and Wagner (21) shouldering a lot of the playmaking load suggests the Magic could become one of the best offensive teams in basketball with better shooting in the backcourt.
That's a topic for another time. Right now, the Magic have one of the most promising rebuilds out there. Don't be shocked if these guys rise above the play-in fray as early as next season, with the added bonus of two more lottery picks coming on board in this year's draft.
4. Indiana Pacers
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The bar was low for the Indiana Pacers, a team expected to retrench and focus on youth in a rare season that didn't include playoff aims from ownership. It seems we underestimated Tyrese Haliburton, as did oddsmakers who pegged the Pacers' over/under for wins in the low to mid-20s.
To ascribe Indy's better-than-expected effort entirely to Haliburton sells some other key influences short, but there's no denying the third-year point guard is the main reason this rebuild is at least a year ahead of schedule.
The 23-year-old is a hair's breadth away from becoming the first player in league history to average at least 20.0 points and 10.0 assists while hitting over 40.0 percent of his threes, and he should have started the All-Star Game.
Anyone unconvinced that Haliburton was the driver of Indiana's breathtaking uptempo attack and general offensive watchability couldn't have held out any longer after watching the Pacers bumble around during a 1-9 stretch in late January without him. Indy's offense is 8.3 points per 100 possessions more potent when Haliburton is in the game, a figure that ranks in the 94th percentile.
We've gone too long without also crediting Myles Turner, who's having a career season and is proving he really was marginalized as a pick-and-pop big when sharing the frontcourt with Domantas Sabonis.
Some may have rolled our eyes when Turner lamented being a "glorified role player" last season, per The Athletic's Jared Weiss, doubting he could do more than he already was.
Fast forward to now, and Turner is smashing his previous personal bests in usage rate and true shooting percentage, proving he was right all along. His rebound rate has never been higher, his shot-blocking remains elite and those averages of 18.2 points and 8.0 rebounds represent career highs.
No wonder Indiana renegotiated and extended Turner's contract, keeping the 26-year-old on the payroll through 2024-25 and removing one of the longest-tenured residents of the rumor mill from the trade block.
First-year guard Bennedict Mathurin has had his ups and downs but can flat-out score and will finish among the top three in Rookie of the Year voting. Buddy Hield, like Turner, also stuck around through the trade deadline, and you can't fault the Pacers for wanting to keep the league leader in three-point makes and attempts.
Smaller successes include rookie Andrew Nembhard and reclamation project Aaron Nesmith. Both have been regular starters with two-way impact.
Indiana has leveled off since Haliburton missed that 10-game stretch and may not make good on what seemed like real early-season potential to steal a play-in spot. But the team is still in a far better long-term position than anyone would have expected a year ago, and the immediate outlook is certainly sunnier than that 23- or 24-win forecast back in October.
Detroit and Charlotte had better get their houses in order. Indiana's rise means the Eastern Conference is running short on pushovers.
3. Utah Jazz
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The benefit of hindsight complicates things, but it never quite felt as though the Utah Jazz were going to be bad enough to truly bottom out. The offseason trades that sent away four starters brought back loads of first-round picks, but Utah also acquired a few too many legitimately valuable players to allow for a full tank job.
That didn't keep oddsmakers from handing Utah the second-lowest over/under win total in the league, a meager 23.5, trailed only by the San Antonio Spurs. The Jazz blew past that number with ease, securing their 24th victory on Jan. 18 with a 126-103 throttling of the Los Angeles Clippers.
If the Jazz were going to compete for the chance to supercharge their rebuild by winning the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes, they'd have to continue the teardown by benching or trading a few more players.
Utah wound up dealing Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley at the deadline, but by then it was way too late to win the race to the bottom. Thanks to Lauri Markkanen's ascent to All-Star status and Walker Kessler's emergence as the best young defensive anchor in the league, the Jazz had already won too many games.
A majority of Utah fans should be cool with that. The war chest is full enough from the Gobert and Mitchell trades, and the 2022-23 season has generally been a lot of fun in Utah. Several weeks remain to cruise into a record that'll net a top-10 pick.
The Jazz may not have quite the same level of under-25 talent as the Pacers or Magic, but both of those teams began their rebuilds earlier. It's stunning that Utah has a real shot to approach 40 wins in what most thought would be a ground-zero season.
Where things go from here depends on Markkanen's continued rise, Kessler's improvement as a defender in space and the outcomes of the six first-round picks Utah has over the next three drafts.
Maybe this year will be a blip in a much longer reconstruction process, or maybe the Jazz will sustain the momentum they built this season and stick in the playoff race next year. Either way, the results to this point of 2022-23 have been far better than anyone could have foreseen.
2. Sacramento Kings
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This will seem like malpractice if the Sacramento Kings continue scaling the standings and wind up finishing No. 2 in the West, but let's at least agree that there's no case to rank this team lower than second among surprises.
Not only are the Kings a lock to end the longest active playoff drought in the NBA (16 seasons), but they're also starting to look like a real threat to advance out of the first round.
Their 176-175 statement win over the Clippers on Feb. 24, in which the two teams combined for the second-highest point total in league history, was proof that the Kings aren't just beating up on bottom-feeders.
Outside observers may have viewed that win as a validation of sorts, but the Kings' reaction to it said something more powerful. They almost seemed annoyed at the way their wins still seemed to inspire surprise...and questions about the opposition instead of themselves.
Talk your talk, Kings. You've earned it.
Sacramento owns the league's No. 2 offense, and there's nothing suspect about that ranking. The Kings organize everything around De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis, stationing shooters on the perimeter to clear the middle of the floor for their two best players.
Send a third defender to help on Fox and Sabonis' two-man action, and you can bank on Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes or rookie Keegan Murray canning a three. All of them are shooting 37.0 percent or better from deep, with Murray leading the way at a scorching 41.4 percent.
Unlike years past, the Kings are darting around off the ball in head coach Mike Brown's Warriors-inspired system. Malik Monk is liable to explode for 30 points any time he laces up his sneakers, and Terence Davis has a dozen double-digit scoring nights off the bench.
Defense was always the question for this group, and the Kings' No. 24 ranking on that end underwhelms. That poor result belies a solid process. Based on opponent shot location, the Kings should be holding teams to the league's No. 11 effective field-goal percentage. If opponents cool off from deep, Sacramento could suddenly profile as a mid-pack defense.
That should terrify playoff opponents who'll match up against a Kings team with nothing to lose.
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
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The Oklahoma City Thunder were the league's most egregious tankers over the last two years, trading veterans for future picks, rolling out raw and inexperienced lineups and shutting down anyone (like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander) performing well enough to negatively affect lottery position. They totaled 46 wins in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
So when No. 2 pick Chet Holmgren went down for the year with a Lisfranc injury before this season even started, an organization that didn't need an excuse to turn in another gap year got one anyway.
OKC seemed like a lock to finish with another 20-something and 50-something record, particularly with Wembanyama looming as an even more transformative prospect than Holmgren. The Thunder had been hoarding picks and losses for two straight years; why stop now?
Gilgeous-Alexander establishing himself as an All-NBA superstar is the biggest reason Oklahoma City isn't in the tank, but some of the picks the team snagged over the last couple of loss-filled seasons have had something to do with it too.
Namely, Josh Giddey became a hugely productive starter and is quietly developing into one of the best passers in the league, and rookie Jalen Williams has flashed an All-Star ceiling. Toss in defensive contributions from Luguentz Dort, the general utility of Kenrich Williams (though he just went down for the season with a wrist injury) and the deadeye sniping of Isaiah Joe, and the Thunder have players chipping in up and down the young roster.
Far from the disorganized, half-checked-out vibe you'd expect from a cast of mostly untested players toiling for a team that had no realistic playoff aspirations, the Thunder excel in the effort and execution departments.
A surprising statistical combination illustrates that fact: OKC is one of only two teams in the league to rank in the bottom five of turnovers committed per 100 possessions and the top five of turnovers forced. In other words, they calmly take care of the ball on offense and create havoc on D.
Some of the ball security has to do with SGA commandeering so many possessions himself, typically ending them with clean mid-range looks, layups or free throws. But it's nonetheless impressive that the Thunder have blended organization and chaos so seamlessly.
The results are hard to deny. Oklahoma City is sixth in net rating since Jan. 1, trailing only Denver, Cleveland, Milwaukee, Memphis and New York. On the year, the Thunder have a better point differential than the Lakers, Timberwolves and Clippers. So much for another pack-it-in season. Before Gilgeous-Alexander went out of the lineup on Feb. 24, that list also included Phoenix, Golden State and Portland.
Maybe the Thunder won't keep it together en route to an actual playoff berth, but their firm presence in the play-in mix and improvement over the last couple of months puts them almost laughably out in front of expectations.
If you're looking to buy futures in an NBA team, start here.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Wednesday. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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