Way-Too-Early Manny Machado Landing Spots with Padres Opt-Out Looming
It's certainly early to be speculating about Manny Machado's next team and contract, but the subject is no longer out of bounds.
The superstar third baseman has, after all, already determined that he will be opting out of his 10-year, $300 million contract with the San Diego Padres at the end of the 2023 season. He believes he can do better than the $150 million he would otherwise be owed between 2024 and 2028, and not unjustifiably so.
"It's a business," Machado told reporters Friday. "These are things that happen. Markets change. From when I signed five years ago, it's changed tremendously. Things change and evolve for other players...it's pretty good to see."
Before we can think about where it might come from, let's first discuss the potential value of Machado's next deal.
What Is Manny Machado's Price Tag?
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Exactly what Machado and his representives from the MVP Sports Group are looking for isn't public. But courtesy of Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune, it is out there that Machado wasn't keen enough on the Padres' offer of an additional five years and $105 million to accept it.
Though a report from Bob Nightengale of USA Today stating that Machado is looking for $400 million over 10 years was characterized as "incorrect" by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors, the six-time All-Star's target is surely somewhere between $255 and $400 million.
Machado, an 11-year veteran, will have closed the books on his age-30 season if he indeed follows through on his opt-out decision at the end of this season. He'll thus be a seasonal age older than fellow superstar infielders Trea Turner and Xander Bogaerts, who scored $300 million and $280 million, respectively, on this winter's market.
Abilitywise, however, Machado (52.0 WAR) has been significantly more valuable throughout his career than both Turner (29.7) and Bogaerts (34.9). Other figures such as a firmly above-average 126 OPS+ and a 162-game average of 32 home runs should only further bolster the chances that the total guarantee on his next deal will start with a three.
As for which teams could go that high, we can think of 10 worth discussing.
10-6: Marlins, Blue Jays, White Sox, Tigers, Dodgers
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10. Miami Marlins
If for no other reason, the Marlins are worth throwing out there because Machado is a Miami native. The club's relatively clean long-term books ought to be another reason, but, well, these are the Marlins we're talking about. To sign Machado would likely require them to triple their biggest ever deal with a free agent.
9. Toronto Blue Jays
With Matt Chapman also slated for free agency after the coming season, the idea of the Blue Jays pivoting to Machado at the hot corner is one to be taken seriously. The club's books are already fairly loaded, however, and one can argue that whatever spending power they have should be put toward an extension for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
8. Chicago White Sox
As reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic at the time, the White Sox made a strong run at Machado when he was a free agent during the 2018-19 offseason:
The White Sox will get another shot at Machado once he opts out, but their offer would have to be even better this time. Not impossible, perhaps, but certainly a big ask for a team that's never spent more than $75 million on a free agent.
7. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers might seem like a long shot for Machado, but the club's history as a big spender is but one reason to not rule them out. Two more are their need at third base and the fact that they'll finally be free of Miguel Cabrera's contract after 2023. Such things could amount to a chance for president of baseball operations Scott Harris to make his mark in free agency.
6. Los Angeles Dodgers
Machado, the once and future Dodger? Hey, maybe. He did good work for them in the latter half of 2018 as a gun for hire at third base, where things are now precariously in the hands of Max Muncy. The Dodgers seem more likely to pursue Shohei Ohtani next winter, but Machado will be there as a fallback if that doesn't work out.
5. Chicago Cubs
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The Cubs did a whole bunch of spending this winter, dropping over $300 million on a free-agent haul headlined by Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger.
As a result, run prevention—particularly by way of a much-improved defense—figures to be the North Siders' bread and butter this season. So much so, perhaps, that they'll be able to make the playoffs after losing 88 games last year.
Yet it's no secret that the Cubs aren't as well equipped offensively, with FanGraphs projecting them to end up eighth from the bottom of MLB in scoring. If this is what ends up sinking their playoff hopes, one would assume they'll be in the market for a big bat come the winter.
This is where Machado would come in. More specifically, he'd come in to boost a third base spot that's projected to be among the weakest in the league this year. And if Bellinger (mutual option), Marcus Stroman (opt-out), Kyle Hendricks (vesting option) come off the books, the Cubs would have that much more flexibility with which to pursue Machado.
The big question is how long the Cubs would be willing to stick in the bidding for him, as they're likely to be up against teams that could scoff at the club's max free-agent payout of $186 million.
4. San Diego Padres
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Well, obviously the Padres will be a candidate to sign Machado.
At the least, they'll have every reason to want him back in their lineup. He's been easily the club's most valuable hitter over the last four seasons, with peaks as a third-place finisher in the National League MVP voting in 2020 and as a second-place finisher last season.
As for the dollars, let's just say Padres chairman Peter Seidler is building a reputation as a guy who doesn't mess around. The club's payroll has more than doubled since he took majority control in 2020, and he cares not for questions about whether that's sustainable.
And yet, San Diego's surprise deal with Bogaerts partially smacks of preemptive preparation for Machado's departure. If he does leave, the club could easily cover the hole by moving Fernando Tatis Jr. from the outfield back to the infield, where he would line up alongside Bogaerts, Ha-Seong Kim and Jake Cronenworth.
There's also the question of whether the Padres could choose to take the money saved from Machado's opt-out and apply it elsewhere, such as a big-bucks contract extension for Juan Soto or an even bigger-bucks free-agent deal with Ohtani, for whom the club is reportedly already seen as a "major threat."
3. New York Yankees
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In Aaron Judge, Gerrit Cole and Giancarlo Stanton, the Yankees already have three players with $300-plus million contracts on their payroll. Another would be overkill, no?
Well, not if the Yankees are in a mood to upgrade at third base next winter. And they could be.
To put it lightly, having Josh Donaldson at the hot corner in 2022 wasn't the best experience for the Bronx Bombers. The 37-year-old played quality defense, to be sure, but he was a shell of his former MVP-winning self on offense. Particularly in the postseason, where he went just 5-for-29 with 16 strikeouts.
Even if Donaldson lasts to the end of the 2023 season with the Yankees, there's no way his $16 million option for 2024 is getting picked up. Between that and the other salaries the Yankees will have coming off their books, there's apparent daylight for a pursuit of Machado.
Ah, but would Machado be their first choice for a big splash next winter? That might be Ohtani, who would frankly suit the Yankees better. Their rotation needs another impact arm right now, and his left-handed power would help balance out a lineup that leans heavily to the right.
2. New York Mets
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If the Yankees don't bring Machado to New York, perhaps the Mets will.
There wouldn't seem to be any question whether Machado would be within the Mets' budget. Before Steve Cohen bought the team in 2020, its record Opening Day payroll was $158.7 million. This year's payroll will top that by about $200 million, and that's without even factoring in eventual luxury-tax penalties.
The Mets' payroll for 2023 would have been higher still if they had finalized their agreement with Carlos Correa. That obviously fell through, but that it ever existed allows for speculation that the club has $315 million earmarked for a third baseman.
What of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos? Well, what of them indeed? They're good-looking third basemen, but so good-looking that Cohen would let them stand in the way of Machado? That seems a reach, especially knowing that there would be other positions for them to play.
Like with the Yankees, though, it seems unlikely that the Mets would give Machado precedence over Ohtani. Andy Martino of SNY has reported that Cohen has "already been talking openly to upper-level Mets people" about a run at the two-way star, who notably knows what it's like to deal with general manager Billy Eppler.
1. San Francisco Giants
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And then there are the Giants, whose desperation for a star hitter is no less of a secret than their repeated failures to acquire one.
There was the fruitless pursuit of Stanton in 2017, followed by a not-quite-good-enough offer to Bryce Harper in 2019. More recently, Judge spurned them and, just when it seemed like the Giants finally had their guy, they got cold feet and backed out of a $350 million deal with Correa.
That's a lot of swings and misses, but the Giants are sure to connect eventually, right? If not courtesy of the law of averages, then surely by way of the club's leadership badly wanting, in the words of Joel Sherman of the New York Post, "stars, wins and fans back."
Machado is indeed a star capable of producing wins and attracting fans, and it bears noting that the guy running the Giants has acquired him before. That's president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi, who was the Dodgers GM when they traded for Machado in 2018.
Otherwise, one bright side of all those whiffs is that the Giants' long-term books are relatively clean. And, unlike Harper, Machado clearly doesn't mind California taxes. So if the Giants come calling next winter, they might just finally get their man.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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