Aaron Rodgers' Decision Is Not the Only One That Will Define 2023 NFL Offseason
The NFL world has shifted its focus from the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles to the offseason rumor mill. And understandably, the headliner on said mill is Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
The 39-year-old is (again) this offseason's tallest lightning rod as he contemplates retirement versus a return to Green Bay versus a trade request. How the Packers and other teams handle that potential request would have to be considered the next-most critical (or at least talked about) decision surrounding the 2023 offseason, but there's a lot more going on out there beyond Rodgers' future with the Packers and in the league in general.
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A rundown, which takes into account the potential domino effect that could stem from each scenario...
A 26-year-old with an MVP on his resume could be on the move
When you put it like that, it's hard to believe the Lamar Jackson situation isn't dominating offseason headlines. And sure enough, even with the frenzy surrounding Rodgers' status, Jackson's fate has and will continue to be a massive story in the sports world.
The 2019 MVP and two-time Pro Bowler is scheduled to become an unrestricted free agent next month, and it's no secret there's been tension between him and the Baltimore Ravens. Could they decide that Jackson's not worth a $32.4 million headache under the franchise tag? Who knows how Jackson will respond to being tagged, but there's certainly also a risk associated with paying top dollar on a long-term deal for a player who has failed to complete the last two seasons due to injuries.
The Ravens have the first decision to make here, but whatever they do will transfer a big decision to Jackson. He doesn't have a traditional agent and there was already plenty of speculation he might have sat out when he was healthy enough to play late in 2022. Will he make a scene under the tag? And what will he require under a long-term deal in Baltimore or elsewhere? Because he won't likely be dealt without a new deal in place with the team that acquires him.
If by chance a trade becomes a realistic possibility, teams that aren't in cap hell and could use upgrades at quarterback will have decisions to make as well. We're looking at you, Atlanta, Las Vegas, New England, Indianapolis, Washington, Detroit and the Jets.
One team might have three starting-caliber quarterbacks
That very fact will almost certainly force the San Francisco 49ers to make some massive decisions this offseason.
They've confirmed veteran Jimmy Garoppolo—who was the NFC's highest-rated qualified passer in 2022—won't be back.
Meanwhile, it's apparent 2022 seventh-round pick Brock Purdy has an edge over 2021 No. 3 overall pick Trey Lance, who of course has the much stronger overall case to become a franchise quarterback.
That makes things extremely complicated, but the good news is the 49ers can take their time and both Lance and Purdy are under contract for years to come. The bad news is the NFL sample sizes are small for both (nine total regular-season starts between them), and Purdy will be coming back from surgery to repair a torn UCL.
And in the meantime, teams like the Falcons, Raiders, Patriots, Colts, Commanders, Lions, Jets, Seahawks (if they don't fully buy into Geno Smith), Ravens (if they move on from Jackson), Panthers, Dolphins (depending on what happens with Tua Tagovailoa), Packers (depending on Rodgers), Titans (if they move on from Ryan Tannehill), Saints and Buccaneers all could have to weigh the merits of signing a 31-year-old Garoppolo versus pursuing other potentially or definitely available signal-callers like Rodgers, Derek Carr, Smith, Tannehill, Jared Goff or whoever might be within their respective draft ranges.
The Bears and that intriguing No. 1 overall pick
Between now and April 27, the Chicago Bears have to decide if they want to become just the third team this century to trade the No. 1 overall pick in the draft, but the decisions surrounding that pick don't stop there.
- They could decide that they believe enough in 2021 first-round pick Justin Fields at quarterback to stay put and select a highly-touted star non-quarterback like Will Anderson Jr. or Jalen Carter first overall.
- They could make that same decision but also decide to trade the top pick, likely to a quarterback-needy team looking to leapfrog the Houston Texans for Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud.
- They could decide they're not convinced Fields is a viable long-term franchise quarterback and stay put in order to draft Young or Stroud with the top selection.
Of course, there's no decision to make regarding a draft trade if no legitimate offers come Chicago's way. So the Colts, Seahawks, Lions, Raiders, Falcons and Panthers will all have decisions to make as teams that could move up in the top 10 for their prized QB.
Do the Giants go all in on Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley?
Following a promising fourth pro season in 2022, the New York Giants have made it clear they plan to retain impending free-agent quarterback Daniel Jones. Still, they'll have to decide just how much they're willing to commit to Jones, with the franchise tag looming as a potential answer in the coming weeks.
But that front office will also have to determine how much it needs or is willing to save for 26-year-old running back Saquon Barkley, who rushed for over 1,300 yards in a double-digit-touchdown Pro Bowl 2022 campaign for a playoff team.
Not only have injuries cost Barkley 22 games since 2019, but running backs obviously typically have pretty short shelf lives in this league.
Need some recent examples? Le'Veon Bell peaked at 24 and 25 years old, as did Todd Gurley. Chris Johnson declined after his All-Pro age-24 season, and Maurice Jones-Drew faded sharply beyond his age-26 season. Meanwhile, Dalvin Cook's best season came at 25. Ezekiel Elliott dominated the NFL in his first three pro seasons, signed a six-year, $90 million contract with more than $50 million guaranteed at the beginning of year four, and has since averaged just 4.2 yards per carry while earning just one Pro Bowl nod over a four-year span.
That's gotta weigh on Giants general manager Joe Schoen as he contemplates what route to go and just how much to put on the table for both Jones and Barkley.
And naturally, teams will have to take all of those scenarios and factors into account if Barkley does hit the market.
As is the case with all of these situations, the fallout could be huge and could linger for years to come.
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.jpg?w=600 "Report: Rodgers Gets 'Rare' Tender")
