Top 10 MLB Players Most Likely to be Traded in 2023
The trade deadline for the 2023 Major League Baseball season is still miles away. Or, more accurately, months away. Either way, it's too soon to know which players will be available.
Yet we can, should and frankly speculate about 10 stars who could eventually be out there for the taking.
Let's be clear that this is not a ranking of the 10 players most likely to be traded this year. This is a ranking of 10 star players based on their likely availability. Picking the names was easy. Sizing up their future trade status was not. It involved making some assumptions about teams' potential willingness to abandon playoff pursuits, cut costs and/or load up on young talent.
Let's hit on some honorable mentions before counting down the top 10.
Note: All playoff odds are courtesy of FanGraphs.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
SS Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox
The only recent time that Anderson's trade candidacy came up was when Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic shot the idea down in December. Because they hold an affordable $14 million option on their star shortstop for 2024, things would presumably have to go really south for the White Sox for them to change their minds.
SS Willy Adames and RHPs Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers
These guys, too, were deemed off-limits by Bob Nightengale of USA Today in December. They're perhaps more reasonable candidates to be moved on account of how they're relatively big-money players on a small-market team, but that likely won't matter if the Brewers contend for a sixth straight season.
RHP Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays will also be looking to contend this year, and for that they're going to need the best version of Glasnow. Knowing that his salary will skyrocket from $5.4 million this year to $25 million in 2024, there might nonetheless be a non-zero chance of them trading him regardless of how they're playing.
CF Trent Grisham and SS/2B Ha-Seong Kim, San Diego Padres
Dennis Lin of The Athletic dangled Grisham and Kim as potential trade bait in the Padres' quest for a starting pitcher back in December. Interesting stuff, to be sure, but the Friars have since solved that need through a complex deal with Michael Wacha that could keep him in town for as many as four seasons.
1B Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds
Votto wants to still be a Red when his contract expires at the end of the year. Others, including ex-teammate David Hernandez, would like to see him traded elsewhere so he can chase a World Series ring. Either way, the first thing that needs to happen is Votto rebuilding value after struggling and then having season-ending shoulder surgery in 2022.
1B Christian Walker, Arizona Diamondbacks
It was in the face of real interest that the D-backs chose not to deal Walker, who eventually hit 36 home runs and won a Gold Glove, last summer. Perhaps they'll relent this year, but it doesn't seem certain. Courtesy of reinforcements from their strong farm system, Arizona might just contend between now and the end of Walker's club control in 2024.
10. DH/RHP Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Angels
2 of 11
Age: 28
2022 Hitting Stats: 157 G, 666 PA, 34 HR, 11 SB, .273 AVG, .356 OBP, .519 SLG
2022 Pitching Stats: 28 GS, 166.0 IP, 124 H (14 HR), 219 K, 44 BB, 2.33 ERA
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
Why It Could Happen
Well, it just has to happen, right? Because enough people have been willing it to happen for what feels like forever, and that's just how these things work.
In all seriousness, the mechanics of how a Shohei Ohtani trade could come to fruition aren't complicated. If 2023 is anything like the last seven years, the Angels won't contend this year. Teams in that position typically cut their losses by getting something for their pending free agents, and Ohtani stands to be perhaps the most valuable rental in MLB history.
True, the Angels could hold their two-way superstar through the end of the season and look to recoup a draft pick by way of the qualifying offer. But if given a choice between a single pick and a bucket-load of players by way of a midseason trade, any rational person would choose the latter.
But Will It?
Even setting aside the club's solid 39 percent chance of making the playoffs, the big hang-up here is whether Angels owner Arte Moreno would ever trade Ohtani. It sounds as if he was the one who took Ohtani off the trading block last summer, just as he eventually took the team off the selling block in January after a months-long tease.
To his credit, Moreno seems sincere about wanting to keep Ohtani in Anaheim beyond 2023. And as hard as it is to imagine him paying out the $500 million or whatever in an extension to make that happen, it can't be entirely ruled out either.
9. SS Javier Báez, Detroit Tigers
3 of 11
Age: 30
2022 Stats: 144 G, 590 PA, 17 HR, 9 SB, .238 AVG, .278 OBP, .393 SLG
Contract Status: Signed through 2027, with opt-out after 2023
Why It Could Happen
Javier Báez has served all of one season so far in his six-year, $140 million deal with the Tigers, yet he still ended up on a list of potential change-of-scenery candidates from MLB.com's Anthony Castrovince in November. A bit much, no?
Actually, no indeed. Báez has tended to be at his best when playing for a contender. Detroit was obviously not in that camp amid a 96-loss season in 2022, and this year almost certainly won't bring significantly better results. To wit, the Tigers have just a 2.9 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Meanwhile, president of baseball operations Scott Harris was basically hired to rebuild from a rebuild that failed under his predecessor, Al Avila. Since signing Báez was the latter's call, one does wonder if Harris would move him this summer if the chance presents itself.
But Will It?
Of course, said chance is likely contingent on Báez rebuilding value after he struggled throughout last season. That's definitely possible, but there is the specter of him once again underperforming in a noncompetitive environment.
Even if Báez were to rebuild value, there would still be the question of how his contract (which includes an opt-out after 2023) might complicate things. It's perhaps too much for any deal to come to fruition.
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8. SS Amed Rosario, Cleveland Guardians
4 of 11
Age: 27
2022 Stats: 153 G, 670 PA, 11 HR, 18 SB, .283 AVG, .312 OBP, .403 SLG
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
Why It Could Happen
Speculation about the Guardians trading Amed Rosario swirled throughout the winter, and not without good reason.
The Guardians are, of course, a small-market team that has generally preferred to pinch pennies during Larry Dolan's time as the team's owner. One, therefore, has to wonder if the club's projected $22 million increase in payroll for 2023 already has him thinking of how costs might be cut.
To this end, a trade of Rosario would remove a $7.8 million salary from the club's books. That's not its biggest salary, mind you, but it's arguably the most expendable of its bigger ones. The Guardians could simply shift Andrés Giménez over to shortstop, with Tyler Freeman, Gabriel Arias or Brayan Rocchio taking his vacated spot at second base.
But Will It?
The question here is whether the Guardians would really trade one of their top position players if, as expected, they end up contending for a second straight American League Central title. But, hey, trading a core player amid a strong season is nothing they haven't done before.
Still, banking on Rosario going anywhere seems unwise. He's not earning that much money after all. And unlike the last star the Guardians traded amid a contending season, Rosario hasn't done anything to become a distraction.
7. 2B Gleyber Torres, New York Yankees
5 of 11
Age: 26
2022 Stats: 140 G, 572 PA, 24 HR, 10 SB, .257 AVG, .310 OBP, .451 SLG
Contract Status: Club control through 2024
Why It Could Happen
Yankees manager Aaron Boone insists that he sees Gleyber Torres' immediate future as an "everyday-ish" presence at second base, but the question remains whether Torres has a long-term future with the team.
He indeed saw the rumors surrounding his name this winter. And while he does seem to want to stay a Yankee for the foreseeable future, he dropped a strong hint that the feeling isn't necessarily mutual:
It would be quite the shock if the Yankees don't contend this year, but there may be a scenario in which Torres is available anyway. If DJ LeMahieu is healthy and Josh Donaldson is playing better at third base, the Yankees will be able to spare an infielder in a trade for, say, a starting pitcher to take Frankie Montas' place while he's recovering from shoulder surgery.
But Will It?
If anything is far-fetched here, it's the notion that the Bronx Bombers will be able to spare a hitter this summer. It was no great secret that they lacked depth around Aaron Judge last year, yet they went out and made exactly zero new additions this winter.
Still, this seems to be a "never say never" situation anyway. The relationship between Torres and the Yankees comes off as being too awkward to be sustainable, which, even if it doesn't happen this summer, makes a trade feel inevitable.
6. LF Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals
6 of 11
Age: 27
2022 Stats: 96 G, 383 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, .228 AVG, .308 OBP, .392 SLG
Contract Status: Club control through 2024
Why It Could Happen
With Tyler O'Neill, Dylan Carlson and Lars Nootbaar presently lined up from left to right and top prospects Jordan Walker and Alec Burleson also in line for playing time, the Cardinals would seem to have more outfielders than they need.
Even if the team contends as expected, it's thus not difficult to envision one of them heading elsewhere this summer. O'Neill could be the one to go, as his club control is running shortest and he's seemingly the most expendable of the bunch.
He's twice been a Gold Glover, but only once over a full 162-game season. He's hit as many as 34 homers in a season, but 13 of those came in that season's final month. The picture is that of a hypothetical ceiling high enough to entice rival clubs, but which the Cardinals know to be lower in reality.
But Will It?
If nothing else, the notion that the Cardinals could trade a bat for an arm holds water. Had they followed through on their reported discussions with the Miami Marlins about Pablo López, that presumably would have been the nature of the deal.
If anything is going to keep O'Neill from being the bat in question, it's that the other guys listed above will likely have more value than him this summer. Unless he puts it all together, talented-yet-inconsistent players with only a year and a half of club control are only so attractive.
5. RHP Lucas Giolito, Chicago White Sox
7 of 11
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 30 GS, 161.2 IP, 171 H (24 HR), 177 K, 61 BB, 4.90 ERA
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
Why It Could Happen
Albeit very briefly, Lucas Giolito's name popped up on the trade rumor mill in December courtesy of remarks Jon Heyman made from the winter meetings on MLB Network:
That was pretty much that, but Giolito's name is nonetheless worth keeping in mind for the summer. Because he's slated for free agency at the end of the season, he would be a natural fit for the trading block if the White Sox fall out of the American League playoff race.
Granted, Giolito himself has value to reclaim after struggling throughout last season. But that should be eminently doable, as he seems to have learned the right lesson from gaining too much weight last offseason and having his mechanics thrown off as a result.
But Will It?
The question here is if the White Sox will indeed fall out of contention. It's something they never really did last season, and they're going into this year with a 27.8 percent chance of playing in the postseason.
But even just within the AL Central, are the White Sox as good as the Cleveland Guardians or Minnesota Twins? The aforementioned odds say no, and it's hard to dispute that once you look and see Chicago's shortcomings at second base, right field and, even with solid projections for Giolito, in the starting rotation.
4. LF Ian Happ, Chicago Cubs
8 of 11
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 158 G, 641 PA, 17 HR, 9 SB, .271 AVG, .342 OBP, .440 SLG
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
Why It Could Happen
The Cubs clearly mean to contend this season. Otherwise, they would not have spent $310.5 million on a cast of free agents headlined by Dansby Swanson, Jameson Taillon and Cody Bellinger.
Even after all that, though, the North Siders are only looking at an 8.4 percent chance of surviving into October for the first time since 2020. That sounds about right, given that they're clearly underdogs in the National League Central relative to the Cardinals and Brewers.
If the Cubs are still an underdog come the summer trading season, chances are other teams will be trying to get at Ian Happ all over again. It was a surprise when they didn't deal with him last year. Unless they prevent his looming free agency with an extension, it would be even more so this year.
But Will It?
Those odds are probably underestimating the Cubs. After all, they finished last year on a high by way of a 39-31 record in the second half, and their defense alone is a reason to think they're capable of carrying it over to 2023.
Still, they are a relative long shot. And even if Happ himself isn't able to carry over the well-rounded performance that defined his 2022 campaign, teams might look at his career .825 OPS against right-handers and conclude that he can at least be a solid platoon player.
3. LHP Martín Pérez, Texas Rangers
9 of 11
Age: 31
2022 Stats: 32 GS, 196.1 IP, 178 H (11 HR), 169 K, 69 BB, 2.89 ERA
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
Why It Could Happen
Martín Pérez was quietly one of the 12 most valuable pitchers in MLB last year by WAR, and now he's part of a Rangers rotation that projects to be elite in 2023.
That is, however, contingent on Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, Jon Gray and Andrew Heaney being healthy and consistent. An iffy proposal, to be sure, and that much more so now that deGrom has already run afoul of the injury bug again.
The Rangers have just a 33 percent chance to make the playoffs as is, so things figure to be even more dire if the rotation doesn't live up to its billing. There's thus an obvious avenue to a summer sell-off, in which case Pérez's looming free agency will make him a rental target.
But Will It?
It does bear noting that Pérez was also a pending free agent last summer, and yet the Rangers still held on to him even as they were on their way to a 94-loss season.
As Pérez is no longer eligible for a qualifying offer, however, the difference this time is that the Rangers can't bank on retaining him on a reasonable one-year deal or getting a draft pick as compensation in the event of his departure. So if they do fall out of the race, the odds of him going would presumably be much greater this time around.
2. 1B C.J. Cron, Colorado Rockies
10 of 11
Age: 33
2022 Stats: 150 G, 632 PA, 29 HR, 0 SB, .257 AVG, .315 OBP, .468 SLG
Contract Status: Signed through 2023
Why It Could Happen
The Rockies have just a 0.1 percent chance of making the playoffs. And based on his comments about the team being able to play .500 ball, even owner Dick Monfort might not dispute that.
Could this mean that C.J. Cron will be out there for the taking this summer? One would certainly think so.
The Rockies opted not to trade the slugging first baseman ahead of last year's trade deadline, even though he was clearly a target for other teams. But that was when he had another year on his contract, whereas he'll be staring down a trip to the free-agent market this summer.
But Will It?
"Rockies gonna Rockie" is not a saying so far as we know, but it should be. It would be in reference to the club's often counter-intuitive maneuvers, such as signing players who should be trade chips to extensions. It wouldn't be unlike them to do so with Cron. Again.
Failing that, though, there would be no excuse for the Rockies not to trade Cron if they're out of it and he's still raking as the trade deadline nears.
1. CF Bryan Reynolds, Pittsburgh Pirates
11 of 11
Age: 28
2022 Stats: 145 G, 614 PA, 27 HR, 7 SB, .262 AVG, .345 OBP, .461 SLG
Contract Status: Club control through 2025
Why It Could Happen
Reports in early December claimed that Bryan Reynolds had asked the Pirates to trade him, and the man himself finally spoke last week about how the request resulted from a "difference of opinion" over his value.
Per his 136 OPS+ and 51 home runs over the last two seasons, Reynolds is certainly a very good player. If the Pirates don't value that, other teams surely do. And ditto for the fact that Reynolds is under club control for two more years beyond 2023.
If anything, it's a wonder that the Pirates haven't already traded Reynolds. But if their gambit is to hope that his play during the season boosts their negotiating leverage in trade talks, well, one must grant there are good odds of that working out.
But Will It?
Despite his trade request, the twist here is that Reynolds hasn't yet closed the door on an extension with the Pirates:
The chances of the Bucs signing him at a market-value rate nonetheless seems unlikely. Such a rate is surely in excess of nine figures, which is a lot for an organization that's never spent more than $70 million on a player.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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