2023 NFL Free Agents Whose Values Tanked Last Season
The NFL offseason has arrived, and free agency will be the first big milestone during the long lead-up to the 2023 campaign.
Teams looking to upgrade their rosters will be doling out big bucks to acquire top-tier talent when the new league year begins March 15, but some players won't be cashing in as much as they may have hoped.
Whether they had their contract years derailed by injuries, poor play or some combination of these factors and others, several players lost a lot of value over the 2022 campaign.
With that in mind, take a look at five free agents who will have to settle for smaller deals than they likely would have earned with more impressive showings last season.
Adrian Amos, S, Green Bay Packers
1 of 5
Adrian Amos has consistently rated among the better safeties in the league since earning a starting job for the Chicago Bears as a fifth-round rookie in 2015. He parlayed a strong four-year stint with his first club into a free-agency deal with the NFC North rival Green Bay Packers in 2019.
While Amos has never earned a Pro Bowl nod, he recorded at least eight pass defenses and two interceptions in every season between 2018 and 2021. His abilities started to slip in 2022, however, and the safety will soon hit the open market on the heels of one of his worst seasons as a professional.
After earning a grade of 73.2 or higher in each campaign between 2016 and 2021 at Pro Football Focus, including a sterling 89.4 mark in 2020, Amos posted a career-low 53.4 grade this past season. Although he started every game for the fifth consecutive year and notched a career high in tackles (102), the Penn State product's coverage skills regressed.
Amos managed just one interception and five pass defenses while allowing a 107.7 passer rating when he was targeted in coverage, his worst showing since Pro Football Reference began tracking the stat in 2018.
Given that he's turning 30 in April and starting to decline, there's a low chance that Amos will cash in with a lucrative third contract. It's unlikely the cash-strapped Packers (a projected $17.5 million over the cap) will opt to retain him unless he's willing to return on a bargain-bin deal.
Spotrac estimates Amos' market value to be a shade under $7 million annually, but it will take a desperate team to cough that up in the wake of a poor contract-year showing.
Rashaad Penny, RB, Seattle Seahawks
2 of 5
Rashaad Penny has been one of the most polarizing running backs in the league over the last half-decade. While he's shown flashes of brilliance, he can't find a way to stay healthy and consistently showcase his abilities.
After he managed to suit up for 10 games and finish the 2021 campaign on an absolute tear, exploding for 671 yards and six scores on 92 carries across the final five contests, the Seattle Seahawks brought him back on a one-year deal.
While he was effective when he was on the field in 2022—Penny averaged 6.1 yards per carry—a fractured fibula and high-ankle sprain meant the 27-year-old only saw action in five games before landing on injured reserve and ceding his starting job to rookie Kenneth Walker III.
With Walker quickly developing into one of the most dynamic young backs in the league, it's likely the end of Penny's star-crossed tenure in the Pacific Northwest. The five-year veteran has missed 40 of a possible 82 games since entering the league as a first-round pick in 2018.
It's hard to envision a hot market materializing for a player who can't seem to shake the injury bug, even with his impressive displays of skill sprinkled between stints on injured reserve.
Penny will likely catch on with another club because of his upside. He went off for 151 yards and two scores in Week 4, one week before suffering his season-ending injuries. But he'll have to settle for yet another prove-it deal instead of a blockbuster contract his performances likely would have commanded had he been able to stay healthy.
Robert Quinn, Edge, Philadelphia Eagles
3 of 5
Robert Quinn has experienced several highs and lows across his decorated 12-year career, but he's entering free agency after what may have been his worst season yet.
The veteran pass-rusher entered the NFL as a first-round pick of the St. Louis Rams in 2011 and developed into an All-Pro talent by his third year in the league. He stuck with the organization through 2017, a point in which he entered the mercenary stage of his career. That is likely to continue if he signs with his fifth team of the last half-decade this offseason.
After a revitalizing 2021 campaign in which he racked up a whopping 18.5 sacks for the Chicago Bears, Quinn was one of the few veteran holdovers who returned for the rebuilding club this past season, and he expressed his desire to remain in the Windy City.
The North Carolina product's wish wasn't granted, however, as Chicago eventually traded him to the Philadelphia Eagles—a move he was "highly upset" about—for a fourth-round pick after he recorded just one sack in seven games.
Quinn didn't experience another resurgence as part of Philadelphia's vaunted defense. He saw action in six games for the eventual NFC champions, failing to secure a single sack and accumulating just two tackles and two quarterback hits across 88 defensive snaps before landing on IR with a knee injury.
The 32-year-old did return to participate in the postseason, but he was ineffective in 16 Wild Card Round snaps and saw his role greatly reduced afterward, logging just six snaps in the NFC Championship Game and two in the Super Bowl defeat.
With the last two years of his contract—a five-year, $70 million extension he signed with the Bears in 2020—not being guaranteed, Quinn and the Eagles agreed to void them when he came to the City of Brotherly Love.
It'll be difficult for Quinn to earn a payout of that size after scoring an abysmal 43.6 PFF grade this season, a mark that is far and away the lowest of his career.
.jpg?w=256 "Commanders Giants Football")
.jpg?w=256 "Commanders Giants Football")
Mike Gesicki, TE, Miami Dolphins
4 of 5
After Mike Gesicki's promising 2021 showing, the Miami Dolphins appeared to have one of the top up-and-coming tight ends on their roster and weren't going to lose him in free agency. The organization franchise-tagged the 2018 second-round pick, a move it would ultimately come to regret.
Gesicki failed to build upon a strong 2021 campaign in which he caught a career-high 73 of his 112 targets, amassing 780 yards and two touchdowns. His production regressed to just 32 catches on 52 targets for 362 yards, his lowest marks since his rookie year.
While he did manage to secure five touchdowns and had to deal with three different starting quarterbacks this past season, it's clear he's not a great fit in the new system that head coach Mike McDaniel and offensive coordinator Frank Smith installed.
The 27-year-old is more of an oversized slot receiver than a traditional tight end, a role that didn't mesh with a crowded group of pass-catchers in Miami. With star wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle set to dominate targets for the foreseeable future, the 6'6", 247-pound Gesicki is almost certain to find a new home this spring.
Because his limitations were exposed in 2022, he will likely earn quite a bit less in free agency than he would have last year had he not been tagged.
There's still a good chance that Gesicki can revitalize his career, but it will take him landing with the right team that utilizes a scheme that fits his strengths and minimizes his weaknesses.
Plenty of squads would benefit from a playmaking tight end, but those clubs will have to accept that Gesicki isn't going to provide high-end blocking and strong inline performances.
Isaiah Wynn, OT, New England Patriots
5 of 5
In the span of a year, Isaiah Wynn went from a promising left tackle with a bright future to an inconsistent right tackle who represents a major risk for any team that may be interested in signing him.
Wynn, a first-round pick by the New England Patriots in 2018, started showing red flags as a rookie when he missed the entire campaign with a torn Achilles. He returned to become New England's starting left tackle in 2019, but he missed half of the year with a toe injury.
While he would end up missing six games in 2020, Wynn finally established himself as a solid piece of the Patriots offensive line and earned a career-best 82.6 PFF grade. He allowed just three sacks and was flagged for two penalties across 641 offensive snaps.
The Georgia product had his healthiest campaign in 2021, participating in all but one game and logging a career-high 915 snaps. While his PFF grade dipped to a 74.9—a drop that can attributed to an increase in penalties (nine) and sacks allowed (six)—he appeared poised to become a stalwart in New England's offensive trenches.
Unfortunately for Wynn, that would not come to pass. He was shifted to right tackle after Trent Brown assumed his former role in training camp. The 27-year-old was ineffective at best in nine games before a foot injury caused him to land on season-ending IR.
Wynn saw just 423 offensive snaps in 2022, getting whistled for nine penalties and giving up four sacks. His 54.6 PFF grade shows just how significant his decline was in such a short span.
His inability to get back into form likely spells the end of his tenure in New England, even with the club having the fourth-most cap space of any team.
There should be some interest in the fifth-year veteran, but it will likely come from value-hunting squads seeking to kick the tires on a first-rounder who hasn't lived up to his billing.
When healthy and dialed in, Wynn has the ability to be a high-end pass protector and strong run-blocker. At 6'2", 310 pounds and possessing good strength and quickness, he could conceivably thrive at several positions within the offensive trenches.
Wynn will have to bet on himself, stay healthy and have a resurgent campaign to cash in as a free agent down the line, however, as it's a long shot he'll command anything close to a pricy contract offer on the open market.
.jpg?w=480 "Commanders Giants Football")
.jpg?w=480 "Commanders Giants Football")
.jpg?w=480 "49ers Giants Football")
