Predicting the Landing Spot for the Top 2023 NFL Free Agent at Every Position
The weeks leading to NFL free agency are loaded with wishes and prayers about landing a top player on the market.
Unfortunately for many fans, several of these dreams will go unfulfilled. Top free agents may return to their previous teams, or a franchise might move in a different direction—maybe not even pursue the player.
Still, a handful of big-name talents will choose new destinations this March. And as we generate early predictions for the 2023 class, five of our position-best players are indeed on the move.
The list is subjective but considers the rosters and cap situations of both the current and potentially interested teams.
QB: Lamar Jackson
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One way or another, the Baltimore Ravens will re-sign Lamar Jackson.
The intrigue, however, is whether the 2019 league MVP will effectively force his way to a new team. Jackson's relationship with the organization has become a major offseason question.
As of today, the expectation is Jackson and Baltimore will attempt to work out an extension. Barring a new agreement, the Ravens will slap (a form of) the franchise tag on Jackson—who, in turn, could decide to hold out. Especially if that happens, a trade lingers as a possibility.
The overall point is the Ravens are exceedingly unlikely to simply let Jackson walk in free agency. Losing an MVP-caliber quarterback for nothing would be an absolute failure of roster management.
Both sides should hammer out a palatable deal. But if negotiations take a negative turn, Jackson has leverage too.
Prediction: Baltimore Ravens
RB: Saquon Barkley
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At least in one opinion, the New York Giants have the most fascinating free-agent predicament of the offseason.
Daniel Jones assembled a mini-breakout year, although he still showed clear limitations as a passer. Saquon Barkley played a pivotal role in New York's resurgent season, yet there's a mountain of evidence to suggest that a high-dollar deal for running backs is bad business.
But the Giants, fresh off a playoff trip with $44.3 million to spare, can't possibly let them leave in free agency, right?
Look, if it wasn't clear already, I am skeptical about re-signing either Jones or Barkley. That would be a bold, fire-me-soon level of risk for an NFL executive if that decision backfires.
The safest route is retaining both players, keeping Barkley for his versatility and connection with Jones.
Prediction: New York Giants
WR: Jakobi Meyers
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Many offenses could use a jolt at receiver, including the Chicago Bears, Houston Texans and New Orleans Saints. They'd all be reasonable landing spots for Jakobi Meyers.
Now, his current team—the New England Patriots—also needs him. Nelson Agholor should not be re-signed, while DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne could be released with a combined dead-cap number of $1.4 million. New England has plenty of money for Meyers.
But it feels unlikely the Patriots will break a trend of being reluctant to pay once the value of a rookie deal is gone.
Chicago general manager Ryan Poles avoided long-term contracts last March, but Meyers is worth the risk because the list of comparable, experienced options is so thin. Most importantly, adding him would give Bears quarterback Justin Fields his first legitimate receiving trio with Meyers, Chase Claypool and Darnell Mooney.
Plus, both Claypool and Mooney are entering the final year of their contracts. Bringing in Meyers now would allow the Bears to maximize the financial window of 2023 and stay flexible at receiver next offseason.
Prediction: Chicago Bears
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TE: Dalton Schultz
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Knowing the constraints of the Dallas Cowboys' cap situation, Dalton Schultz is a likely candidate to move elsewhere.
One intriguing spot is the Green Bay Packers, although they're facing a similar financial bind. As if that wouldn't be hard enough for Cowboys fans to stomach, how about the NFC East rival Washington Commanders?
Washington has minimal cap space ($6.6 million), but quarterback Carson Wentz should be released. Starting tight end Logan Thomas is also a cut candidate, and their departures would free space for the Commanders to target Schultz and bolster its promising pass-catching group.
Adding a high-dollar quarterback would take the organization out of mix for Schultz. But if Washington actually turns to Sam Howell, surrounding the second-year QB with weapons would be a wise decision.
Prediction: Washington Commanders
OL: Orlando Brown Jr.
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Orlando Brown Jr. will likely be a priority for the Kansas City Chiefs, considering how well he's played late in the 2022 season.
Kansas City doesn't have left tackle money available today ($14 million in projected cap space), but releasing edge-rusher Frank Clark would create the space. Even if Brown and the Chiefs are unable to reach an extension once more, Kansas City could use the franchise tag to retain him—or trade him instead of losing the 26-year-old for nothing.
While the latter route is surely the unanticipated one, the Patriots should be lurking. They are expected to need a new tackle because a reunion with Isaiah Wynn is improbable at best after his shaky season. His snap share had fallen noticeably even before a foot injury.
But, again, the Chiefs have heavily invested in Brown. They've showed no signs of looking for a change either.
Throw in the reality of contending for Super Bowls annually in Kansas City, and it's a partnership that makes sense to continue.
Prediction: Kansas City Chiefs
DL: Javon Hargrave
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As the Philadelphia Eagles prepare for a shot at a Super Bowl title, Javon Hargrave has earned a well-deserved moment in the spotlight.
This season, he racked up 60 tackles with a career-best 11 sacks and 10 tackles for loss. Hargrave added another sack in the NFC championship win over the San Francisco 49ers. Among the Eagles' many excellent players, Hargrave has become a force in the middle of the defensive line.
The issue is Philly can't afford to keep everyone.
It's possible Hargrave has played his way beyond the Eagles' financial limitations. Philly has 2022 first-round selection Jordan Davis ready to occupy a larger role. He and Hargrave can coexist up front, but the Eagles could instead lean on Davis and a less expensive player.
As mentioned earlier, the Bears have money to burn ($90.9 million). Although the agreement fell through, Chicago quickly targeted Larry Ogunjobi last offseason to headline new head coach Matt Eberflus' defense. Eberflus has been very public about the unit's need for an "engine" on the D-line.
Chicago has the top pick in April's draft, and the dream of pairing Alabama edge-rusher Will Anderson Jr. with Hargrave is awfully appealing.
Prediction: Chicago Bears
LB: Lavonte David
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While the 33-year-old is solidly on the back end of his career, Lavonte David remains a highly productive player.
During the 2022 season, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers star collected 124 tackles with 10 stops for loss and three sacks. David and Devin White compose one of the league's best linebacker duos.
The longtime captain recently said he wants to finish his career in Tampa, and a team-friendly deal is a real possibility. Hometown discounts don't happen often in reality, but an 11-year veteran is more likely to take a below-market contract than a player in his prime.
One underrated spot is the Denver Broncos, who boasted an elite defense but might lose top tackler Alex Singleton in free agency. David, nevertheless, seems unlikely to leave the only NFL franchise he's known.
Prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
CB: Jamel Dean
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Staying with the Bucs, Jamel Dean is less likely to, well, stay.
Dean is a younger player, approaching his second NFL contract heading into his age-27 season. This is the ideal moment for him to land the most money of his career.
And the Bucs might not be able to get that creative. Don't rule it out, but there are some cap gymnastics in play. They are projected to be $55 million over the cap.
Dean should have no shortage of suitors, given his age and career performance. He surrendered less than six yards per target over four seasons, notching seven interceptions with 41 passes defended.
Among many options, the Indianapolis Colts, Minnesota Vikings and Tennessee Titans should inquire. But the Detroit Lions have a gargantuan need in the secondary after their defense ceded the second-most yards per attempt in the league last season.
Dean alone doesn't solve the Lions' defensive woes, but he's a valuable step in a positive direction.
Prediction: Detroit Lions
S: Jessie Bates III
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Last offseason, Jessie Bates III and the Cincinnati Bengals could not reach an agreement for an extension. He ultimately played the 2023 campaign under the franchise tag.
And it was probably his final season with the team.
Cincinnati selected Dax Hill in the opening round of the 2022 NFL draft. The bigger issue is the looming contracts for quarterback Joe Burrow and wide receiver Tee Higgins—along with the other players entering unrestricted free agency with Bates this offseason.
In short: The Bengals have priorities to meet elsewhere, and they might have to sacrifice keeping Bates.
Meanwhile, the Atlanta Falcons had a below-average secondary in 2022. First-year starters Richie Grant and Jaylinn Hawkins put together decent years, but the latter could shift to a rotational spot behind Bates.
Atlanta has at least $56.4 million in cap available, and that number is expected to rise. Bates is a logical addition for the Falcons.
Prediction: Atlanta Falcons
Projected salary-cap figures via Over the Cap.
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