2023 MLB Skill Rankings: Freddie Freeman and Baseball's Best Contact Hitters
The question is simple enough: Who was baseball's best contact hitter in 2022?
However, rather than simply looking at batting average, I decided to take a more analytical approach to compile my list.
The first step was to decide which statistics best quantify contact ability.
After some digging and debating, I landed on these four:
- Strikeout Rate (K%): The percentage of a player's plate appearances that end in a strikeout.
- Contact Rate (Contact%): The percentage of swings that result in contact.
- Hard-Hit Rate (HardHit%): How frequently a ball in play travels 90 mph or more off the bat. This was included to reward quality of contact, which is an important component of contact ability.
- Hit/Swing Percentage (Hit/Swing%): The percentage of a player's swings that result in a base hit. This is a homemade stat courtesy of Baseball Savant and a suggestion from fellow B/R writer Zachary Rymer.
The question was how to use those statistics to best demonstrate the difference between Player A and Player B in terms of contact ability.
My methodology and scoring system is outlined on the following slide.
Catch up on other 2023 Skill Rankings articles: Power Hitters
Methodology
1 of 15
The only requirement for inclusion in these rankings was that a player had to have amassed at least 300 plate appearances during the 2022 season. That served as a cutoff point to help eliminate small-sample-size data skew, and notably excluded Michael Brantley (HOU) and Vinnie Pasquantino (KC), who would have otherwise cracked the top five.
From there, I implemented a point system that awarded points as follows:
- 1 point for every 0.1 percent below the 25 percent benchmark in K%
- 1 point for every 0.1 percent above the 70 percent benchmark in Contact%
- 1 point for every 0.1 percent above the 40 percent benchmark in Hard%
The point total from those three categories was then multiplied by each player's Hit/Swing% to give us our final total for each player. The idea was to make the advanced metrics the foundation of the formula while still rewarding actual production in the form of the Hit/Swing% stat.
No bias. No preconceived notions. Just a set of statistical parameters and a straightforward point system to determine the 25 best contact hitters in baseball.
The full data can be found here.
Let's kick things off with a rundown of the 25 players who fell just outside our rankings and make up our honorable mentions list.
Honorable Mentions: Next 25
2 of 15
These 25 players came up just short of earning a spot in our rankings:
- Rafael Devers, BOS (119.0 points)
- Brendan Rodgers, COL (118.8 points)
- Juan Soto, SD (118.7 points)
- Jean Segura, MIA (116.2 points)
- Josh Naylor, CLE (115.7 points)
- Eric Hosmer, CHC (111.5 points)
- Matt Vierling, DET (111.2 points)
- Andrew Benintendi, CWS (111.0 points)
- Manny Machado, SD (110.2 points)
- Aaron Judge, NYY (109.8 points)
- Will Smith, LAD (109.8 points)
- Keibert Ruiz, WAS (109.4 points)
- Kyle Tucker, HOU (109.1 points)
- Eloy Jiménez, CWS (104.4 points)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa, NYY (104.0 points)
- Christian Vázquez, MIN (102.5 points)
- Brendan Donovan, STL (102.5 points)
- Joc Pederson, SF (102.3 points)
- Amed Rosario, CLE (99.0 points)
- José Iglesias, FA (96.9 points)
- Corey Seager, TEX (95.4 points)
- Justin Turner, BOS (94.6 points)
- Pete Alonso, NYM (94.3 points)
- Max Kepler, MIN (92.8 points)
- Josh Bell, CLE (90.3 points)
Nos. 25-21
3 of 15
25. Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies (119.3 points)
Metrics: 17.4 K%, 81.2 Contact%, 43.0 HardHit%, 7.1 Hit/Swing%
Bohm has not yet shown the elite raw power that helped make him the No. 3 overall pick in the 2018 draft, but his hit tool took a major step forward in 2022 when he slashed his strikeout rate from 26.6 to 17.4 percent. The 26-year-old looks like a bona fide breakout candidate heading into 2023.
24. Joey Wendle, Miami Marlins (119.7 points)
Metrics: 13.5 K%, 84.4 Contact%, 36.2 HardHit%, 7.0 Hit/Swing%
With versatility, elite infield defense and terrific bat-to-ball skills, Wendle has quietly racked up 13.1 WAR over the past five seasons. He struck out just 50 times in 371 plate appearances as a super-utility player last year, and he will likely fill that role once again this coming season.
23. Austin Nola, San Diego Padres (120.3 points)
Metrics: 15.1 K%, 86.8 Contact%, 39.4 HardHit%, 5.7 Hit/Swing%
Nola is still chasing the breakout first-half numbers he posted with the Seattle Mariners in 2020 before he was traded to San Diego, but in a stacked lineup, his high-contact bat fits well at the bottom. He set career highs in plate appearances (397) and hits (87) in 2022, and he's controllable through the 2025 season.
22. Alex Bregman, Houston Astros (123.8 points)
Metrics: 11.7 K%, 86.2 Contact%, 37.6 HardHit%, 5.6 Hit/Swing%
Bregman was one of only six players with at least 500 plate appearances and more walks (87) than strikeouts (77) in 2023, joining Juan Soto, Yandy Díaz, Alejandro Kirk, Steven Kwan and Luis Arráez. His .260 BABIP is a good indication that his batting average is in for some positive regression in 2023.
21. Yuli Gurriel, Free Agent (125.2 points)
Metrics: 12.5 K%, 87.3 Contact%, 35.4 HardHit%, 6.2 Hit/Swing%
The 2021 AL batting title winner saw a significant dip in his quality of contact, with his hard-hit rate (42.0 to 35.4 percent) perhaps best illustrating that point, but he was still one of the toughest players in baseball to strike out. The 38-year-old is still looking for a new home in free agency.
Nos. 20-16
4 of 15
20. José Ramírez, Cleveland Guardians (126.9 points)
Metrics: 12.0 K%, 86.2 Contact%, 36.6 HardHit%, 6.1 Hit/Swing%
Ramírez has never had a strikeout rate higher than 16.9 percent in his career, and that came during the abridged 2020 season. The switch-hitter was significantly more effective against right-handed pitching (.295 BA, .918 OPS) than he was against left-handed pitching (.236 BA, .729 OPS), but the bottom line was still good enough for him to crack the top 25.
19. Tim Anderson, Chicago White Sox (131.4 points)
Metrics: 15.7 K%, 79.6 Contact%, 41.2 HardHit%, 8.7 Hit/Swing%
With a career-low 15.7 percent strikeout rate and a 4.0 percent walk rate, Anderson put the ball in play as frequently as anyone in 2022. Injuries limited him to 79 games, but he still hit .300 for the fourth consecutive season, and he's not far removed from winning the AL batting title in 2019.
18. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Arizona Diamondbacks (132.1 points)
Metrics: 16.8 K%, 80.1 Contact%, 45.3 HardHit%, 7.1 Hit/Swing%
Gurriel is a .285 career hitter in five MLB seasons with the Toronto Blue Jays, and now he's set to call the NL home for the first time after being traded to the D-backs. His 16.8 percent strikeout rate in 2022 was a career low and marked the fourth straight season in which he has reduced that number.
17. Jeff McNeil, New York Mets (132.7 points)
Metrics: 10.4 K%, 86.0 Contact%, 30.2 HardHit%, 8.4 Hit/Swing%
The NL batting title winner ranks a bit lower than expected due to the quality-of-contact component of this exercise. His 30.2 percent hard-hit rate was the lowest of any player ranked inside the top 25 and checked in 251st among the 277 players with at least 300 plate appearances. Still, that didn't stop him from hitting .326 on the year.
16. Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays (133.5 points)
Metrics: 22.2 K%, 79.7 Contact%, 50.3 HardHit%, 7.5 Hit/Swing%
Bichette salvaged a disappointing first half by hitting .337/.378/.543 in 67 games after the All-Star break, including a .406 average in 142 plate appearances over the final month of the season. The 24-year-old led the AL in hits (189) for the second straight year, and along with his contact skills, he also posted some of the best batted-ball numbers in baseball.
Nos. 15-11
5 of 15
15. Christian Arroyo, Boston Red Sox (136.3 points)
Metrics: 16.3 K%, 81.9 Contact%, 42.1 HardHit%, 7.7 Hit/Swing%
Once upon a time, Arroyo was a top prospect in the San Francisco Giants' system, checking in at No. 62 on the Baseball America Top 100 list in 2016. It took him some time to develop into an MLB contributor, but he quietly put together a solid 2022 season in Boston, hitting .286 in a career-high 300 plate appearances while serving in a utility role.
14. Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs (136.9 points)
Metrics: 11.0 K%, 86.6 Contact%, 32.9 HardHit%, 7.4 Hit/Swing%
Hoerner hit .302 during the 2021 season, but a variety of injuries limited him to 44 games. The 2018 first-round pick then established himself as a cornerstone piece of the Cubs' ongoing rebuild during his first full season in the majors in 2022, hitting .281 with only 57 strikeouts in 517 plate appearances.
13. Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals (137.2 points)
Metrics: 11.6 K%, 82.3 Contact%, 38.9 HardHit%, 7.0 Hit/Swing%
Arenado is one of the most prolific power hitters of his generation with an average of 38 home runs per 162 games over the past eight seasons. However, he has also never posted a strikeout rate higher than 18.1 percent in his career. After a few down seasons from a batting average standpoint, he hit .293/.358/.533 in 2022.
12. Alex Verdugo, Boston Red Sox (137.4 points)
Metrics: 13.4 K%, 86.1 Contact%, 37.8 HardHit%, 6.7 Hit/Swing%
Verdugo hit .309 over six minor league seasons while regularly receiving some of the highest hit tool grades of any prospect, and his sweet left-handed swing has translated well to the majors. The 26-year-old has gone .288/.343/.425 in three seasons with the Red Sox since he was acquired in the Mookie Betts blockbuster.
11. DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees (141.9 points)
Metrics: 13.1 K%, 87.4 Contact%, 40.6 HardHit%, 5.7 Hit/Swing%
Despite battling a toe injury over the final month of the season, LeMahieu was once again one of baseball's best contact hitters. The only player to win a batting title in both leagues, he hit a modest .261 in 2022, but with almost as many walks (67) as strikeouts (71) in 541 plate appearances.
10. Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox (144.5 Points)
6 of 15
Metrics: 17.3 K%, 80.8 Contact%, 48.4 HardHit%, 6.6 Hit/Swing%
Andrew Vaughn hit .374/.539/.704 during his junior season at the University of California, and MLB.com gave him a 65-hit, 60-power offensive profile before he was chosen No. 3 overall by the Chicago White Sox.
He has had to deal with learning how to play the outfield on the fly during his first two seasons in the majors, but the departure of José Abreu in free agency will allow him to return to his natural position of first base in 2023.
The 24-year-old hit .271 with strong batted-ball metrics last year, and now that he can focus solely on his offensive game, he could take another significant step forward next year.
9. Mookie Betts, Los Angeles Dodgers (146.8 Points)
7 of 15
Metrics: 16.3 K%, 84.9 Contact%, 44.7 HardHit%, 6.3 Hit/Swing%
Despite a career-high 16.3 percent strikeout rate in 2022, Mookie Betts remained one of baseball's elite contact hitters, and as usual, that was one of many tools in his overflowing toolbox.
The 30-year-old launched a career-high 35 home runs, swiped 12 bases and eclipsed 300 total bases for the fourth time in his career while finishing fifth in NL MVP voting.
Even with a spike in his strikeout rate, he was still punched out just 104 times in 639 plate appearances, and given his quality of contact, his .272 BABIP is a good indication he has room for positive batting average regression.
8. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays (147.4 Points)
8 of 15
Metrics: 16.4 K%, 78.0 Contact%, 50.4 HardHit%, 6.7 Hit/Swing%
Young Toronto Blue Jays superstar Vladimir Guerrero Jr. claimed the No. 4 spot in these rankings last year following a 2021 season in which he finished runner-up in AL MVP voting and batted .311/.401/.601 with 188 hits.
The 23-year-old didn't quite match those numbers this year, but he still hit .274 with only 116 strikeouts in 706 plate appearances as a raw power hitter who also has an elite hit tool and a high contact rate.
His numbers would have looked a lot better if not for the months of May (.217 BA, .681 OPS) and September (.235 BA, .680 OPS). He is more than capable of another MVP-caliber season if he can avoid those lulls throughout the season.
7. José Abreu, Houston Astros (166.2 Points)
9 of 15
Metrics: 16.2 K%, 79.3 Contact%, 51.7 HardHit%, 6.7 Hit/Swing%
After winning AL MVP in 2020 and slugging 30 home runs for the fifth time in his career the following year, the 2022 season might look like a bit of a disappointment for José Abreu at first glance.
He batted .304 with a .378 on-base percentage and 133 OPS+ in 157 games, but he hit a career-low 15 home runs. Entering his age-36 season, it's fair to question whether his power is starting to dry up.
On the other hand, he still ranked among the MLB leaders in hard-hit rate (97th percentile) and average exit velocity (93rd percentile), and his bat-to-ball skills should allow him to age more gracefully than the average power hitter.
6. Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays (172.1 Points)
10 of 15
Metrics: 9.6 K%, 88.1 Contact%, 35.4 HardHit%, 7.2 Hit/Swing%
One of the most hyped prospects in recent memory, Wander Franco only fueled the fire with a stellar debut when he hit .288/.347/.463 in 308 plate appearances as a 20-year-old to finish third in 2021 AL Rookie of the Year voting.
With sky-high expectations, his 2022 season was something of a disappointment, due in large part to the fact that injuries limited him to 83 games. Still, when he was healthy, there were still glimpses of the 80-grade hit tool he showed as a prospect.
He hit .322/.381/.471 in 97 plate appearances to close out the year following a two-month stint on the injured list, and the breakout season everyone was expecting could be on tap in 2023.
5. Alejandro Kirk, Toronto Blue Jays (183.6 Points)
11 of 15
Metrics: 10.7 K%, 85.8 Contact%, 45.0 HardHit%, 6.1 Hit/Swing%
After hitting a forgettable .242/.328/.436 in 189 plate appearances during his first extended MLB action in 2021, Alejandro Kirk was one of the biggest breakout stars in baseball this past season.
The 24-year-old hit .285/.372/.415 in 541 plate appearances and started the All-Star Game while tallying more walks (63) than strikeouts (58), and his compact right-handed swing was built for contact.
A .318/.416/.503 hitter over four seasons in the minors, his track record suggests he is more than capable of replicating his 2022 success and once again checking in high on these rankings next year.
4. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers (192.2 Points)
12 of 15
Metrics: 14.4 K%, 83.1 Contact%, 48.0 HardHit%, 7.2 Hit/Swing%
Freddie Freeman made a serious run at the NL batting title in his first season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, hitting .325/.407/.511 while leading the majors with 199 hits and splitting his time between the No. 2 and No. 3 spots in a stacked lineup.
The 33-year-old had a career-low 14.4 percent strikeout rate, and he made more contact without sacrificing power production with 70 extra-base hits and 313 total bases in 159 games.
He was No. 13 in these rankings last year, and still in the prime of his career, he is capable of making a run at the top spot in 2023.
3. Luis Arráez, Minnesota Twins (195.8 Points)
13 of 15
Metrics: 7.1 K%, 94.1 Contact%, 30.2 HardHit%, 7.2 Hit/Swing%
With 50 walks and 43 strikeouts in 603 plate appearances, Luis Arráez put the ball in play 84.6 percent of the time when he dug into the batter's box during the 2022 season, and he hit .316 to walk away with the AL batting title.
Arráez had 133 singles among his 173 hits, making him a throwback player of sorts in today's launch angle-obsessed game littered with three-true-outcome hitters and ever-climbing strikeout rates.
The 25-year-old had struck out just 131 times in 1,569 career plate appearances, making him more or less the modern-day equivalent of Tony Gwynn.
2. Yordan Álvarez, Houston Astros (196.0 Points)
14 of 15
Metrics: 18.9 K%, 78.8 Contact%, 59.8 HardHit%, 6.6 Hit/Swing%
After checking in at No. 2 in our power hitters skill rankings, there is a strong case to be made that Yordan Álvarez is the most complete hitter in baseball right now.
The 25-year-old hit .306/.406/.613 with 78 walks and 108 strikeouts in 561 plate appearances. The left-handed hitter was also equally effective with a lefty (.321 BA, .998 OPS) or a righty (.299 BA, 1.030 OPS) on the mound.
That six-year, $115 million extension he signed in June already looks like a steal, and he'll be a serious contender for the AL batting title and a perennial 30-homer threat for years to come.
1. Yandy Díaz, Tampa Bay Rays (226.9 Points)
15 of 15
Metrics: 10.8 K%, 87.1 Contact%, 48.6 HardHit%, 6.5 Hit/Swing%
Surprised?
Yandy Díaz is not the prototypical power-hitting corner infielder, but his combination of bat-to-ball skills and on-base ability made him a 3.5-WAR player in 2022.
The 31-year-old hit .296/.401/.423 with more walks (78) than strikeouts (60), and he did it with some of the best batted-ball metrics in baseball, ranking among the leaders in hard-hit rate (91st percentile) and average exit velocity (93rd percentile).
He was baseball's best contact hitter in 2022, and he will likely be asked to set the table from the leadoff spot in the Tampa Bay Rays lineup in 2023.
Metrics courtesy of Statcast via FanGraphs, while other statistical data also came from Baseball Reference and Baseball Savant.
.jpg?w=600 "Bryce Harper Trade Landing Spots 🛬")
