B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Bowl Season Part 1
There's no sugarcoating it: Betting on college football bowl season has become an enormous challenge. Between coaching changes, opt-outs and transfer portal chaos, evaluating these games has never been more difficult.
We are still ready to thrive and conquer, though.
Locks of the Week, our weekly CFB picks against the spread, delivered a formidable 74-51-4 record during the regular season. We hit a rhythm, avoided massive losing streaks and ultimately finished conference championship weekend on a high note (5-2).
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
We're now trying to carry that momentum forward.
To do so, we're breaking up Locks of the Week into multiple installments. We'll start by picking from all bowl games between December 16th and December 22nd. (Yes, we'll also cover the College Football Playoff and the national championship, so you might as well get comfortable.)
In time, we'll get there.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.
Cure Bowl: Troy (-2) vs. UTSA
You don't have to wait long for bowl brilliance.
No, the action will be served on Friday when two ranked teams—along with two great stories—go head-to-head in one of the first bowl games of the year.
Both teams won 11 games this season, although they did it in different ways. UTSA was No. 12 in scoring offense this year, while Troy was No. 8 in scoring defense.
Despite thinking the world of UTSA, I expect the defense to win out in this game. Troy has faced tougher competition this season. It also feels like the more seasoned team.
While both programs were hot against the spread to close out the year, the Trojans covered five of their last six games and cruised in their final three outings.
In the battle of offense vs. defense, defense wins. And we all win with a game of this magnitude coming so early in the bowl season.
Fenway Bowl: Louisville vs. Cincinnati (Under 41)
This game has a chance to be ugly, and not the good kind of ugly.
For starters, both teams have interim coaches. Scott Satterfield, formerly of Louisville, will coach Cincinnati next year. (Yes, it's a little awkward.)
Beyond that, Louisville will also be playing without star quarterback Malik Cunningham, who left school early for the NFL. The Cardinals will also be without a few other key players, including running back Tiyon Evans and leading wide receiver Tyler Hudson.
Like most teams this time of year, Cincinnati is also losing some offensive contributors. While the Bearcats weren't an offensive juggernaut this season, they did show some promise along the way. They still finished only 46th in scoring offense, and the departures coupled with the daze of losing Luke Fickell to Wisconsin probably won't help.
On top of it all, the weather looks iffy. Rain and wind are in the forecast for Boston on Friday and Saturday, the day of the game, which could limit what the offenses do.
While the total is small, it feels about right. This feels like a 17-14 game.
Las Vegas Bowl: Oregon State (-10) vs. Florida
If you haven't been following college football the past three months—and especially the past three weeks—this point spread might look out of whack. I am here to tell you that it most certainly is not.
In fact, Oregon State was a far better team than Florida before many of the Gators started declaring for the draft or heading into the transfer portal.
The most notable departures are clear: Quarterback Anthony Richardson and offensive lineman O'Cyrus Torrence are headed to the NFL draft. Richardson, in particular, is a massive departure. The offense isn't going to look the same without him.
For Oregon State, it's a matter of keeping the rhythm. The Beavers just bested Oregon in dramatic fashion to close out the year. They also covered the spread in their final six games.
That streak will move to seven against a Florida squad that is missing players and motivation. Beavers win big.
LA Bowl: Fresno State (-3) vs. Washington State
I'm heavy on favorites to begin, and I am perfectly comfortable with that. Underdogs will come in due time; right now, we're looking for winners in all shapes and forms.
Recently, Fresno State has done a lot of winning. The Bulldogs won eight consecutive games to close out the year, and they did it in a variety of ways. They also covered the spread in each of their last three games, closing out the season with a conference championship.
Washington State was certainly no slouch down the stretch, although the season ended with a thud against rival Washington. The Cougars allowed 703 yards of offense in that game, which is less than ideal. Wazzu is also down some key pieces on both sides of the ball.
While Fresno State doesn't possess the same offensive firepower, quarterback Jake Haener is no joke. And the fact that the oddsmakers have Fresno State as the favorite is certainly a noteworthy development.
There's nothing cute about this one. The Bulldogs stayed largely intact, and they are surging at the right time.
New Mexico Bowl: SMU vs. BYU (Over 64.5)
If you like defense, this isn't your ideal bowl game. If you enjoy touchdowns, however, this game could be right up your alley.
Neither of these teams did well to slow down the opposition this season: BYU is currently ranked No. 100 in scoring defense, while SMU is No. 123, close to the very bottom of FBS.
The Mustangs also averaged nearly 40 points per game, which is likely what we need to hit this over.
The status of BYU quarterback Jaren Hall, who would certainly help this wager, is a concern. Hall is questionable to play because of an ankle injury, although the Cougars should still find success on offense regardless of whether he plays or not.
We need a 50-burger out of SMU, and it feels like one might be possible. If that ultimately happens, there's a chance we cruise past the total.
Other Games On the Card
Frisco Bowl: Boise State (-10.5) vs. North Texas
Although the Broncos lost to Fresno State in their last game, they were otherwise hot to close out the season. Add in a surprising coaching change at North Texas, and I am ready to lay the points.
Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty (+5) vs. Toledo
Speaking of coaching changes, we're going the other way here. Liberty was blasted by New Mexico State in its final game, and the Flames lost three straight to close the year. They keep this one close enough.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
