Early Quarterback Carousel Predictions for the 2023 NFL Season

Quarterback is the most important NFL position, so it's never a surprise when teams are desperate for an upgrade.

For some franchises, there is already a succession plan in place with a previously drafted player. In many cases, however, executives turn to free agency, the trade market or the next NFL draft for a solution.

Every offseason sparks a new spin of the quarterback carousel, and 2023 is expected to result in at least a handful of changes.

This early preview of the upcoming offseason includes a look at 16 teams with QB situations to monitor and initial predictions of how nine potential openings may be filled.

Notable No-Move Moves

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Aaron Rodgers

We don't know if Aaron Rodgers plans to return in 2023. If he does, the expectation is he'll remain with the Green Bay Packers because of, well, about $60 million worth of reasons.

Elsewhere, the New York Giants have been a pleasant—while flawed—surprise this season. Daniel Jones hasn't demanded a long-term contract with his performance, but he's played well enough for the Giants to consider using the franchise tag to keep him while retaining key flexibility for 2024 and beyond.

While the Las Vegas Raiders' outlook is volatile, Derek Carr is presumably safe. The veteran quarterback holds a no-trade clause, and the Raiders just added his college teammate Davante Adams last offseason.

The relationship between Mac Jones and the New England Patriots has likely soured in a tumultuous year. But if the Pats hire an offensive coordinator next season—a novel concept!—the 2021 first-rounder might actually be in a position to develop with Bailey Zappe as the backup.

Lamar Jackson is also an impending free agent, but there's no way the Baltimore Ravens let him walk. If they don't agree to an extension, he'll return to Baltimore on the franchise tag.

QBs-in-Waiting?

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Desmond Ridder

Shame on the Atlanta Falcons. You couldn't have waited, like, two more days to let this publish? Rude.

The inevitable became reality on Thursday when news broke of the Atlanta Falcons benching Marcus Mariota in favor of Desmond Ridder. The rookie out of Cincinnati, a third-round selection in the 2022 NFL draft, is getting his shot to be Atlanta's long-term starter.

Two other 2022 draft picks may become QB1 next year, too.

Matt Corral has missed the season because of a foot injury; otherwise, he'd likely already be in the Carolina Panthers' lineup. The wild card is Carolina has to hire a new coach, although second-year general manager Scott Fitterer may still want to give Corral a serious look.

Conversely, the Tennessee Titans need a new GM after firing Jon Robinson. His eventual replacement might want to move on from veteran Ryan Tannehill, who could be released to save the team $17.8 million and open the job for Malik Willis.

However, the early prediction is neither Corral nor Willis will fill a vacated spot in 2023.

Jobs Projected to Open

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Tom Brady

Last offseason, Tom Brady retired but decided to return. That conversation may appear again, but he's also an unrestricted free agent and can leave the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Best guess: He will.

Beyond him, money has a significant impact on this conversation.

We mentioned the Titans' potential $17.8 million savings with Tannehill. If the Detroit Lions release Jared Goff, they save $20.7 million. If the Indianapolis Colts move on from Matt Ryan, they save $17.2 million. Plus, the New Orleans Saints have Andy Dalton's expiring deal and a manageable $11.2 million dead-cap number on Jameis Winston's contract.

Expect the financial side to impact the Lions, Colts and Saints. But unlike Tennessee, there are no easy replacements.

Instead, the trifecta should be headed to free agency—or the trade market—along with the Washington Commanders. Carson Wentz has zero guaranteed dollars on his remaining two years, and it'd be downright shocking if the Commanders don't release him this offseason.

Money isn't the only factor, of course. While subpar performance also affects those situations, other potential openings are largely the product of the latter discussion.

Robert Saleh has cracked open a window of competitiveness for the New York Jets, but Zach Wilson hasn't been the answer. Mike White has an expiring deal and may leave in free agency, and the Jets might want to add a more proven quarterback anyway.

Hello, NFL Draft

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Bryce Young

Until predraft buzz and anonymous smokescreens try to pretend otherwise, there are two commonly accepted elite draft prospects: Alabama's Bryce Young and Ohio State's C.J. Stroud.

One of them, in all likelihood, will be joining the Houston Texans. Davis Mills has struggled in 2022, yet they unnecessarily benched him for Kyle Allen. The switch didn't improve anything, but Houston plainly revealed it's not that committed to Mills at quarterback.

Following the Texans is a fascinating question.

Geno Smith has assembled a breakout year. But will the Seattle Seahawks want to shell out his impending raise, or would they prefer to grab Young or Stroud if the Denver Broncos' first-round selection they acquired in the Russell Wilson trade is high enough? Smith probably stays in Seattle, but keep an eye on the Seahawks.

Otherwise, the Lions and Panthers will be prime candidates to land the quarterback Houston doesn't take.

Filling the Vacancies

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Jimmy Garoppolo

Tom Brady makes the biggest splash and signs with the Titans, who are coached by former Pats assistant Mike Vrabel. Tennessee takes the home-run swing because it gives Willis a chance to learn from Brady and increase his likelihood of being the replacement.

Bring on the uniform edits!

Jimmy Garoppolo chooses the Jets, reuniting with former San Francisco 49ers assistants Saleh and Mike LaFleur. Additionally, the Commanders land another stop-gap in Jared Goff while waiting for now-rookie Sam Howell to hopefully develop into the starter.

Ryan Tannehill shifts to the Saints, who have a decent foundation to support his need for an effective running game. Similarly, the Colts take a short-term swing—yes, another—with Mike White in addition to drafting a mid-round quarterback to compete with Sam Ehlinger.

Although the Panthers explore a blockbuster trade for Kyler Murray, a deal is never reached. They sign Taylor Heinecke to serve as a temporary option until Corral takes over midseason.

The draft results in Bryce Young heading to the Texans and C.J. Stroud joining the Lions. No other QB prospect in the 2023 cycle becomes an immediate starter in the NFL.