32 Predictions for 2022-23 NBA Season
The 2022-23 NBA season is tipping off this week, so it's time to unload a final round of predictions.
With everything that happened since the end of the last campaign, there's plenty of material to pull from. Below, you'll find a realistic (though not necessarily obvious) prediction for each of the league's 30 squads, plus bonus calls for MVP and the championship.
Forget the crystal ball. Bleacher Report has the only forecast you need here.
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young Will Post a Career-High Three-Point Percentage
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Trae Young posted a career-high 38.2 three-point percentage in 2021-22, and that mark should climb even more with the addition of Dejounte Murray.
Young figures to still have the ball in his hands for plenty of possessions, but Murray will also give him more catch-and-shoot opportunities.
In 2021-22, Young only attempted 77 catch-and-shoot threes, ninth among Atlanta Hawks. His percentage on those shots was 48.1.
With Murray helping Young have a healthier shot diet, he could eclipse 40 percent from deep for the first time in his career.
Boston Celtics: Jayson Tatum Will Average over Five Assists
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Marcus Smart was entrusted with more playmaking responsibility in 2021-22. That trend could continue this season. The addition of Malcolm Brogdon, who averaged 6.3 assists during his three seasons with the Pacers, takes more assist opportunities off the board.
Still, the Boston Celtics leaned into something in the 2022 playoffs that they shouldn't abandon now. During the postseason, Jayson Tatum had the ball in his hands even more, particularly at the start of possessions, and he averaged 6.2 assists through those 24 games.
One of the team's strengths this season should be the ability to keep opposing defenses guessing. When Smart, Brogdon, Al Horford and Tatum are all on the floor, initiation could come from just about anywhere.
Allowing Tatum to continue to operate as he did in the playoffs adds to that.
Brooklyn Nets Will Win 55-Plus Games
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Ultimately, this is just a bet on the stars being available.
Kyrie Irving has only averaged 34.3 appearances per season over the past three years. Kevin Durant missed all of 2019-20 with a ruptured Achilles, and he's only managed 90 games in the two seasons since. Ben Simmons missed all of last season with back and mental health concerns.
Having one of them for 60-plus games is far from a given. Assuming all three can get to that many appearances may be foolish.
But if they do, the Brooklyn Nets have the potential to finish first in the East. They could even win the title.
Kyrie and KD are still among the game's best at manufacturing their own looks. Simmons is a prolific three-point-shot creator who has multiple high-end catch-and-shoot threats in the aforementioned stars, Joe Harris, Seth Curry and Royce O'Neale.
Points will come in droves when Kyrie, KD and Simmons share the floor.
Charlotte Hornets Will Trade Gordon Hayward and/or Terry Rozier
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It shouldn't take long for the Charlotte Hornets to realize they should join the race to the bottom for a chance to draft Victor Wembanyama.
That was true even before LaMelo Ball suffered an ankle injury that could cost him the start of the season. Now, it seems almost undeniable.
And in a season in which teams like the Utah Jazz and San Antonio Spurs seem to have a head start in this competition, late arrivals can't afford to be too competitive at any point.
If they aren't already, the Hornets should be shopping veterans Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier. Some time between now and February's trade deadline, they'll find takers for both.
Chicago Bulls: Zach LaVine Will Lead the Team in Scoring
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Zach LaVine quietly accepted a slightly smaller role to accommodate the arrival of DeMar DeRozan to the Chicago Balls last season.
While the latter led the team in field-goal attempts and points per game, LaVine was still the more efficient scorer (with better marks in both effective field-goal percentage and true shooting percentage).
This season, as DeRozan enters his age-33 campaign, the usage gap between him and LaVine will narrow. LaVine's efficiency advantage will remain, and that will return him to the top of Chicago's points-per-game column.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Evan Mobley Will Make an All-Defense Team
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Despite being a 20-year-old rookie, Evan Mobley posted a 2.3 defensive estimated plus-minus (one of the game's most trusted catch-all metrics) in 2021-22.
There are only nine other players in league history who matched or exceeded all of his marks for defensive rebounding percentage, block percentage and steal percentage in a single age-20 (or younger) campaign.
Now, with a year of experience under his belt and the media more familiar with his game, those well-rounded contributions should continue and ultimately be rewarded with an All-Defense nod.
Dallas Mavericks: Christian Wood Will Be in the Starting 5
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Christian Wood, who's 27 and has a career three-point percentage of 38.0, is coming off the bench right now. JaVale McGee, who's 34 and 12-of-66 from three for his career, is starting.
That decision has led (and will lead) to moments like the second highlight in the video below.
That should be a shooter in the corner. Specifically, it should be Wood.
And given Jason Kidd's apparent willingness to experiment with lineups (eight Dallas Mavericks started at least 20 games in 2021-22), it will be Wood at some point.
He and Luka Doncic should develop chemistry quickly, and Kidd won't be able to pull the plug on the partnership.
You can finagle rotation minutes to have a starter play a lot with a specific reserve, but it's just a lot easier when you start games with the most logical lineup.
Denver Nuggets: Michael Porter Jr. Will Average 20-Plus Points
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In 2020-21, Michael Porter Jr. averaged 19.0 points and 2.8 threes while shooting 44.5 percent from deep. A back injury and subsequent surgery limited him to just nine appearances last season.
If the preseason is any indication, he's ready to pick up where he left off in 2021.
In the Denver Nuggets' four exhibitions, MPJ averaged 25.6 points per 36 minutes, while shooting 50.0 percent from three.
If the upsized Klay Thompson comparisons aren't back already, they will be soon.
"Michael Porter Jr. became an even better shooter this summer," DNVR's Harrison Wind wrote during the Nuggets last preseason game. "Release looks quicker and somehow smoother."
Porter with a better shot than the one he had in his last healthy season is a terrifying prospect. And as the primary catch-and-shoot threat for both Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, he's going to have some huge scoring nights.
Detroit Pistons: Two Players Will Average Five-Plus Assists
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Cade Cunningham will undoubtedly be the Detroit Pistons' lead playmaker in 2022-23 and going forward, but they have the opportunity to diversify their attack like the Celtics.
Last season, Cunningham averaged 5.6 assists. Improving on that mark almost feels like a given for the 21-year-old former No. 1 pick, so this prediction is more about Killian Hayes and Jaden Ivey.
The former has averaged an under-appreciated 4.5 assists in just 25.2 minutes during his career. With his solid defense and playmaking, he could be in line for another minute or two, and that could get him over the five-assist threshold.
Ivey, meanwhile, is probably the longer shot, but playing with NBA finishers could help him average more than the 3.1 assists he put up in his last year in college.
Golden State Warriors: Jordan Poole Will Win Sixth Man of the Year
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The Golden State Warriors cast a $140 million vote of confidence in Jordan Poole this week, giving him a four-year extension that, in concert with Andrew Wiggins' extension, pushes the team's 2022-23 salary and luxury-tax bill close to half a billion dollars.
Despite the money, Poole figures to continue coming off the bench. And even if he just recreates what he did last season, that should be good enough to get him into the Sixth Man of the Year debate.
If he improves upon the 18.5 points, 4.0 assists and 2.8 threes he put up in 2021-22, it'll be tough for anyone to keep pace, especially if Tyler Herro makes his way into the Miami Heat's starting five.
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green Will Average 22-Plus Points
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Jalen Green dropped 41 points in his last game as a rookie. In his final nine from that season, he put up 28.1 points and 4.6 threes while shooting 42.7 percent from long range.
The chances of maintaining that kind of production for an entire season are probably nonexistent, but he did just average over 30 points per 36 minutes in four preseason games.
In a starting five that includes plus playmaking from Kevin Porter Jr. and Alperen Sengun, Green should get more than enough scoring opportunities to eclipse 22 points per game.
Indiana Pacers Will Trade Myles Turner and/or Buddy Hield
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The Indiana Pacers are in the same spot as the Hornets. This season should be all about the pursuit of Victor Wembanyama, and having Buddy Hield and Myles Turner doesn't really help there.
Both were tied to Russell Westbrook rumors all summer, but the Pacers may have to move past that possibility before long.
For teams already in or considering the race to the bottom, simply removing good players from the equation may have as much value as far-off, protected draft picks.
That means trades might be easier to pull off than usual.
Los Angeles Clippers Will Lead the NBA in Three-Point Percentage
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The Los Angeles Clippers led the league in three-point percentage in 2020-21, with an absurd mark of 41.1.
Injuries to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, as well as a catastrophic drop in Reggie Jackson's efficiency, took a toll on the entire offense, and the three-point percentage followed.
With the stars back and commanding defensive attention, shooters like Luke Kennard, Norman Powell, Robert Covington, Nicolas Batum and Marcus Morris should get tons of open catch-and-shoot threes.
That'll lead L.A. back to the top of the league in three-point efficiency.
Los Angeles Lakers Will Trade Russell Westbrook
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Really going out on a limb here, I know, but the shelf life on the Russell Westbrook-Los Angeles Lakers partnership has long been expired.
Unless a desperation lineup "realignment" that sent Russ to the bench is dynamite for both the player and the team, L.A. may have to relent on an offseason-long determination to not attach two first-round picks in a Westbrook deal.
With multiple teams almost certainly angling for improved lottery odds, there should be a number of decent options for the "Westbrook and picks" trade package that the Lakers can offer.
It's only a matter of time before they pick one.
Memphis Grizzlies: Desmond Bane Will Average 20-Plus Points
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Desmond Bane just about doubled his scoring average from 9.2 points as a rookie to 18.2 in his sophomore campaign.
Doubling it again is probably out of the question, but his current rate of development suggests a couple more points are well within reach.
That's especially true with Kyle Anderson and De'Anthony Melton gone and Jaren Jackson Jr. set to miss some time with an injury.
In the early portion of the season, the Memphis Grizzlies repeating last season's success will depend an awful lot on the backcourt of Bane and Ja Morant.
Miami Heat: Nikola Jović Will Crack the Rotation
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The Miami Heat have gotten positive contributions from plenty of non-top-10 picks in their rookie seasons in recent years.
Precious Achiuwa, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro all fit that description. Kendrick Nunn and Omer Yurtseven were undrafted and still found some rotation minutes in Year 1.
This year, that trend will continue with the 21st overall pick, Serbian forward Nikola Jović.
With P.J. Tucker now on the Philadelphia 76ers and no other free agents really signed to replace him, minutes are available at the 4. Jovic has shown the kind of feel and shooting that could get him in coach Erik Spoelstra's good graces.
This preseason, he averaged 22.2 points, 12.2 rebounds, 6.8 assists and 4.1 threes per 36 minutes.
Milwaukee Bucks Will Lead the League in Threes per Game
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The Milwaukee Bucks finished 2021-22 with the fourth-highest average for threes per game in the league.
The Utah Jazz were second, and they've since steered all the way into a rebuild, so a drop is definitely coming for them. The Minnesota Timberwolves, who finished first, could devote a few more two-point shots per game to Rudy Gobert than they did to Jarred Vanderbilt.
That leaves the Golden State Warriors for the Bucks to leapfrog, which is obviously no small task, but having Brook Lopez back from injury and Joe Ingles joining at some point in the season should put Milwaukee over the top.
Expect a ton of spray-out three-point opportunities generated by Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday.
Minnesota Timberwolves: D'Angelo Russell Will Average a Career High in Assists
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This is probably the most talented team that any of Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell has ever played on.
And for Russell, that means tons of assist opportunities all over the floor.
Last season, he averaged a career-high 7.1 assists, and two of his top three targets (Towns and Edwards) are back.
And now, he also has Gobert, the best lob threat he's ever played with, to feed inside.
New Orleans Pelicans: Zion Williamson Will Average Five-Plus Assists
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Zion Williamson posted borderline unbelievable scoring numbers in 2020-21, when he averaged 27.0 points on just 17.0 shots per game.
Even if he doesn't quite recreate that production, it's safe to assume he'll be one of the game's better scorers.
He's returning to a team that has a lot more offensive options around him, though. Jonas Valanciunas and CJ McCollum are now New Orleans Pelicans, and both could benefit from kickouts (in CJ's case) or dropoffs (in JV's case) out of Zion's drives.
In 2020-21, New Orleans was 16-8 when Williamson had at least five dimes. Its ceiling will be reached if Zion does that more consistently.
New York Knicks: RJ Barrett Will Lead the Team in Scoring
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This one may not be all that bold, since RJ Barrett (20.0 points per game) finished just shy of Julius Randle (20.1) in 2021-22, but he'll actually pass him this season.
After an out-of-body experience in 2020-21 when he averaged 24.1 points, Randle returned to a level a lot closer to his norms of the past few years. Meanwhile, Barrett's scoring average has gone up in each of his NBA seasons.
The addition of Jalen Brunson could take a few touches away, but he'll also help Barrett get more easy looks.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Josh Giddey Will Lead the Team in Rebounds and Assists (Again)
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One of the most underrated stories of the 2021-22 campaign was rookie Josh Giddey leading his team in both assists and rebounds per game.
Yes, the Oklahoma City Thunder piled up a ton of losses, but that kind of production from a teenager is far from normal.
The more surprising number of the two was Giddey's average of 7.8 rebounds, but Chet Holmgren's season-ending injury means repeating that is within reach.
In the preseason, Giddey put up 10.5 assists and 9.5 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Orlando Magic: Paolo Banchero Will Average 20-Plus Points
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The 2011-12 season was the last time the Orlando Magic had an above-average mark for points per 100 possessions. They've been in desperate need of an alpha scorer for years, and now they have one.
No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero averaged 17.2 points on 13.2 shots as a freshman at Duke, and he'll play alongside better playmaking in his first season with the Orlando Magic.
Other scoring options like Franz Wagner and Wendell Carter Jr. will get their chances, but Banchero figures to be the center of this offensive universe.
Philadelphia 76ers: James Harden Will Lead the League in Assists per Game
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James Harden is one of the most prolific playmakers in NBA history. He's 31st all-time in total career assists and 30th in assists per game.
Believe it or not, he's only led the league in assists per game once, and that happened back in 2016-17.
With Joel Embiid smack-dab in the middle of his prime and Tyrese Maxey on what feels like a meteoric rise, Harden could have two 20-point-per-game scorers to feed, not to mention shooters like Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker and De'Anthony Melton.
With last season's assist title winner, Chris Paul, entering his age-37 season, Harden has a chance to seize that crown.
Phoenix Suns: Deandre Ayton Will Average 20-Plus Points
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With Deandre Ayton playing his first season as a max player, expect his usage to creep closer to where it was during his second season when he took 14.9 shots per game.
If he gets that many attempts and maintains the same rate of points per shot he's had over the past two seasons, that'll get him over 21 points per game.
Continued development from Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson could affect his number of touches a bit, but the Phoenix Suns also have Jae Crowder's 8.1 shots per game to replace (at least until he's traded). Ayton could pick up some slack there, too.
Portland Trail: Anfernee Simons Will Average 20-Plus Points
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Damian Lillard left the 2021-22 Portland Trail Blazers' rotation for good after New Year's Eve.
From that point to the end of Simons' season (27 games, thanks to an injury), he averaged 23.4 points and 4.4 threes while shooting 42.3 percent from deep.
Of course, Lillard will be back in 2022-23. That could take some usage from Simons. Jerami Grant's arrival means another player who's averaged 20-plus will want his touches.
But of those three top options, Simons is the only one who's undoubtedly still on the rise. And the presence of Lillard and Grant could mean more wide-open catch-and-shoot opportunities than he's ever had.
Last season, Simons shot 47.8 percent on catch-and-shoot threes.
Sacramento Kings Will Make the Play-In Tournament
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The Sacramento Kings did exactly what they needed to this offseason, surrounding De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis with a bunch of quality shooters.
Incoming wings Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk shot a combined 39.0 percent from three last season. Keegan Murray shot 39.8 percent from deep at Iowa in 2021-22, and he's looked as NBA-ready as any rookie in this class.
Harrison Barnes (39.1 percent over his past four campaigns) still being around obviously helps, too.
With all of that firepower surrounding the aforementioned two-man game of Sabonis and Fox, the Kings should be able to pour in the points. The defense could be more of an adventure, but there's enough talent to sneak into the West's top 10.
San Antonio Spurs Will Trade Jakob Pöltl and/or Doug McDermott
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Another rebuilder that needs to unload some veterans, the San Antonio Spurs might actually have the most useful player among the teams angling for Wembanyama.
Jakob Pöltl is a 7'1" behemoth who's one of the better positional defenders and rim protectors in the league. And outside of a dreadful free-throw percentage, he's no slouch on offense, either.
Last season, in just in just 29.0 minutes, Pöltl averaged 3.9 offensive rebounds and 2.8 assists. There are only nine players in NBA history who matched or exceeded both of his marks for offensive rebounding percentage and assist percentage in a single season.
A contender could do a lot worse than adding Pöltl to its rotation, but he's not the only Spur who could be a difference-maker elsewhere.
Over his past five seasons, Doug McDermott has shot 41.6 percent from deep. He doesn't do a whole lot else, but dedicated floor spacing with a shooter of that quality can help.
Toronto Raptors: Scottie Barnes Will Average Five-Plus Assists
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Scottie Barnes won Rookie of the Year in 2021-22 without really showing what made him such an intriguing prospect.
The Toronto Raptors certainly gave him some chances to create, as evidenced by his 3.5 assists, but the 6'9" Barnes was a point guard in college.
In his lone season at Florida State, he mostly came off the bench and averaged 4.1 dimes in just 24.8 minutes (7.1 per 75 possessions).
Expect Toronto to lean further into that with Barnes in 2022-23, a development that should lead to more catch-and-shoot opportunities for Fred VanVleet.
Utah Jazz Will Trade Mike Conley and/or Jordan Clarkson
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OK, last one.
The Utah Jazz, like the Hornets, Pacers and Spurs before them, need to move on from the last vestiges of the previous era as soon as possible.
Mike Conley and Jordan Clarkson seem like the kind of vets any organization would like the young players to learn from, but Utah is in the first stage of its rebuild.
At this point, losses are legitimate goals (even if no one on or around the team will admit it). Conley and Clarkson could stand in the way of a precious few.
If the Jazz or any of the other rebuilders hang onto their veterans till February and wind up a loss or two shy of the bottom three—and a 14 percent chance at the No. 1 pick—they might be kicking themselves.
Washington Wizards Will Make the Play-In Tournament
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The Washington Wizards' roster is, at the very least, interesting.
If Bradley Beal is all the way back to the level he was before an injury-plagued 2021-22 (or at least close), they have one of the best lead scorers in basketball.
And on paper, he makes sense as half of a one-two punch with Kristaps Porzingis, who averaged 22.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.7 threes and 1.5 blocks while shooting 36.7 percent from three for Washington.
Fill in the rest of the rotation with Kyle Kuzma, a bunch of young, intriguing forwards (Deni Avdija, Rui Hachimura and Corey Kispert) and the recently acquired Monte Morris, and it's easy to imagine this team getting back to .500.
That should be good enough to finish in the East's top 10.
MVP: Luka Dončić
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Despite just entering his prime and coming off two of the greatest single seasons in NBA history, voter fatigue pretty much eliminates Nikola Jokić from the MVP conversation before the season even starts.
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid will surely be in the mix again, but the former is on a team that seems to have entered the "cruise before the playoffs" mode that a lot of contenders fall into. Both have a ton of help.
All of the above could certainly secure the award, but it's not hard to see why they're not the betting favorite.
That player, according to FanDuel's sportsbook, is Luka Dončić.
With Jalen Brunson gone and basically replaced by a finisher (Wood) instead of a playmaker, there's a chance Luka's offensive burden is even heavier than it's been in the past.
Hard as it is to believe, Luka's averages could creep even higher than the 28.3 points and 8.7 assists he's put up over the past three seasons.
If he gets to 30 and 10 and Dallas secures 50 wins (probably good enough for home-court advantage in today's parity-packed league), Dončić will have a tough case to top.
NBA Champions: Denver Nuggets
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FanDuel's book gives the Nuggets the ninth-shortest odds to win the championship. That's understandable. Gambling odds are more about inducing bets than making predictions.
And it's fair to be skeptical about Denver, whose starting point guard missed all of last season with a torn ACL and whose best shooter is coming off back surgery.
But the last time Jokić, Murray and MPJ were all healthy, the Nuggets overcame 3-1 deficits against the Jazz and the Kawhi-led Clippers on the way to the Western Conference Finals.
The next season, they traded for Aaron Gordon as the ideal gap-filling fourth option. Before Murray's injury, Denver had an absurd plus-18.1 net rating when Gordon, Porter, Jokić and Murray were on the floor. The sample size was tiny, but the team looked like a legitimate juggernaut.
Now, that group is finally back together. And the rotation around them includes Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
Beyond having arguably the best basketball player in the world, the Nuggets are deep, experienced and playoff-tested.
It's not hard to see why FiveThirtyEight's projection system gives Denver the second-best chance to win the title (behind a Boston team whose coach is suspended for the year and whose starting center is out because of a knee surgery).
With the NBA, it always feels safer to pick a team led by a player who's already won it all, but mold-breakers like the 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks, 2014-15 Golden State Warriors and 2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks come around every few years.
The Nuggets are absolutely good enough to be the next team in that group.
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