B/R College Football 2022 Betting Locks with Adam Kramer: Week 6
The message is beginning to sound redundant. Another week, another batch of winning picks. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
To be clear, this isn’t arrogance. Oh, that would be foolish. I’ve picked college football games against the spread long enough to know that all good streaks come to an end. The tables will eventually turn.
But through six weeks of picks, we’ve yet to have a losing Saturday.
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Week 5 had its ups and downs, although we’ll gladly take a 5-3-1 final tally. For the season, Locks of the Week are now a mighty 33-16-2.
We cannot and will not get complacent. This needs to persist. Before we get to this week’s selections, let's explore what went right and wrong last week.
The Good: Oklahoma State @ Baylor (Over 57)
This felt like a big ol’ loss in the first half. Baylor and Oklahoma State scored just 19 points in the first 30 minutes, and the over was on life support. A 39-point third quarter changed everything, allowing the over to hit with a quarter to spare. We’ll gladly take it.
The Bad: Florida State (-7) vs. Wake Forest
Well, the Seminoles scored first, and it looked easy. From there, Wake Forest essentially took the game over. While I thought FSU would keep its undefeated season in motion, the Demon Deacons had other plans.
Here are the picks for Week 6.
All odds courtesy of DraftKings and accurate as of Wednesday.
Iowa State (+2) vs. Kansas State
In terms of optics, this will likely make many of you cringe.
On one sideline, Kansas State is quickly becoming one of the most watchable teams in the sport. QB Adrian Martinez has been reborn with his new team; running back Deuce Vaughn is a human bowling ball.
On the other sideline, well, I think Iowa State just missed another field goal. The Cyclones had two turnovers and three missed field goals in a close loss to Kansas.
This would scare many, although it’s drawing me in.
Iowa State showed me something last weekend beyond crippling miscues. The defense did a wonderful job of keeping Kansas QB Jalon Daniels in check, and that could be significant for Saturday.
While I love Kansas State’s performance of late, let’s not forget that this team lost woefully to Tulane not terribly long ago.
Iowa State snaps a two-game skid with an ugly outright winner.
Miami (-3.5) vs. North Carolina
There’s no sugarcoating Miami’s start this season. It has been abysmal. The loss to Texas A&M seems to get worse every week, and the loss to Middle Tennessee State can’t get much worse than it already was.
So, why back the Hurricanes?
First and foremost, the bye came at the perfect moment for Miami. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, who was so great last season, needed a moment.
For UNC, we might be getting a little ahead of ourselves. Quarterback Drake Maye has been superb, although the competition hasn’t exactly been stellar for UNC’s 4-1 start. (Just to be clear, I love what I’ve seen from Maye. But I am also just keeping it real.)
North Carolina allowed App State to score 61 and nearly lost to 1-4 Georgia State. Clobbering Virginia Tech at this point doesn’t tell us much.
Miami gets right with a much-needed win.
TCU (-7) @ Kansas
Kansas, it’s only business.
Let’s make that abundantly clear. The Jayhawks are a wonderful story—perhaps the best in all of football—and it would be wonderful to see Kansas become bowl-eligible in only the sixth game of the year. What an accomplishment.
With that out of the way, TCU is going to be a problem. Sonny Dykes has the Horned Frogs rolling in his first year with the program, and I don’t expect that to stop now.
For all the talk surrounding KU quarterback Jalon Daniels, TCU QB Max Duggan has been exceptional. Against Oklahoma on Saturday, Duggan accounted for five touchdowns, threw for 302 yards and ran for 116 yards.
In general, TCU has balance. And in a strange year for the conference, Dykes’ team can (and will) assert itself as a threat to win the Big 12.
Neither team has lost a game or against the spread this season. TCU puts a dent in Kansas’ perfection, although a tremendous story carries forward.
LSU (+3) vs. Tennessee
The Vols might be a very good football team. Although we’re taking the other side, this is an important disclaimer to toss out.
Tennessee is unbeaten, ranked No. 8 in the AP poll and an easy watch for the average football fan. The offense, powered by quarterback Hendon Hooker, can really move.
There's a lot to like, although this point spread fascinates me. It’s also likely to draw heavy interest on the road favorite. It’s worth noting that Tennessee has played one road game up until this point.
During Week 2, Tennessee traveled to Pittsburgh and needed overtime to take down the Panthers. (I should also mention that Pitt lost outright to Georgia Tech this past weekend.)
Now, it’s been a while since that game occurred. As you know, the sport doesn’t work that cleanly. Still, Baton Rouge is a potent environment that knows how to make life miserable on opposing teams.
LSU wasn’t exactly stellar for much of its game at Auburn last week, although the Bayou Bengals did win their fourth game in a row. At home, LSU is perfect against the spread. This includes a stellar 31-16 win over Mississippi State a few weeks back.
Brian Kelly’s team stays hot with a cover and a mild upset.
Maryland (-3) vs. Purdue
Amid a sea of storylines, don’t sleep on this sneaky-good game in the Big Ten.
Purdue is coming off an upset over Minnesota as a 9.5-point road underdog. Maryland, having covered the spread in four straight, comfortably handled Michigan State as a favorite Saturday.
The Terps’ only loss this year was a hard-fought game at Michigan, which was a pleasant surprise for many. Purdue could very well be unbeaten if not for losing winnable games against Penn State and Syracuse.
Both teams have plenty of offense, and the wideouts on each side should put on a show. Charlie Jones, an Iowa transfer, has been excellent for the Boilermakers. Keeping him reasonably in check will be a must for Maryland.
There’s no magic angle. These teams are powered by solid quarterbacks and coaches with solid offensive minds. Maryland just feels a cut above, and playing at home should help as well.
Other Games on the Card
Virginia (+3) vs. Louisville
Oh, this point spread called to me. While Virginia has struggled. Louisville hasn't exactly been stellar of late. The Cavaliers cover the spread and find a way to win outright. (WARNING: ugly football game.)
Florida (-11) vs. Missouri
After a close call against Georgia, Missouri is at risk of coming out flat. That is precisely what I feel will happen here as the Gators get right in a big way at home.
Rutgers (+3) vs. Nebraska
Speaking of ugly football games, enter this beauty. At home, Rutgers slips by a Nebraska team in the midst of a challenging year.
Notre Dame (-3.5) vs. BYU
Although Notre Dame has had its issues, the Irish finally broke through against UNC. Against BYU, Notre Dame delivers another convincing win to extend its winning streak to three after losing its first two games.
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