Injuries That Will Have the Biggest Impact on 2022 MLB Playoffs
Good health and success in Major League Baseball's postseason aren't necessarily mutually inclusive. Just ask Atlanta, which won the World Series in 2021 even without Ronald Acuña Jr.
And yet, this is probably only so reassuring to teams that aren't sure how much, if anything, they're going to get out of key injured players in the 2022 playoffs.
With this year's postseason due to kick off on Friday, we compiled a list of injuries that could make or break teams' fortunes. We left the diagnosing and prognosticating to the experts, instead focusing on what's at stake if the players in question do or don't get healthy.
We'll start with quick refreshers on players who definitely won't be seen, plus others who only recently recovered from injuries. After that, we'll shine the spotlight on individual players and their recovery timelines, ranked according to how hard their teams should be rooting for a swift recovery.
These Stars won't Be Making an Appearance
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LF Michael Brantley, Houston Astros
Status: 60-day IL
Brantley's season came to an end when he had surgery on his right shoulder in August. The Astros still have a dangerous offense without him, but it's just never a good thing to be without a consistent .300 hitter who also offers occasional power.
RHP Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
Status: 60-day IL
The 110-win Dodgers were dealt a major blow when Buehler underwent Tommy John surgery in August, and not just because he's an All-Star-caliber hurler in the regular season. He's more like a legend in the postseason, pitching to a 2.94 ERA in 15 career starts.
2B Brandon Lowe, Tampa Bay Rays
Status: 60-day IL
Try as he might, Lowe was unable to recover from a bothersome back and was shut down by the Rays on Sep. 24. As he averaged 37 home runs per 162 games between 2018 and 2021, the Rays will miss having him in a lineup that otherwise doesn't have a ton of power.
LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu, Toronto Blue Jays
Status: 60-day IL
Ryu has been out of the Blue Jays rotation ever since he had Tommy John surgery in June. This arguably counts as addition by subtraction on account of the 4.55 ERA he had posted over his previous 37 starts, yet Toronto could nonetheless be missing him as a depth option if it plays deep into the newly expanded postseason schedule.
SS Fernando Tatís Jr., San Diego Padres
Status: 60-day IL
With his season already over by way a suspension for performance-enhancing drugs, Tatís went ahead and had surgery on his bothersome left shoulder. The Padres still have a talented offense, but the club's World Series odds would only look better if it had a shortstop who hit 81 home runs and 52 stolen bases through his first 273 career games.
These Stars Aren't on the IL, But...
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2B DJ LeMahieu, New York Yankees
LeMahieu, the 2020 MLB batting champion, missed over three weeks in September with inflammation in his right second toe. It had been bothering him even before he went on the IL, so perhaps it's a red flag that he has just four hits in his last 47 at-bats, including nine since he came off the IL on Sep. 30.
RHP Kevin Gausman, Toronto Blue Jays
Neither Gausman nor the Blue Jays seem worried, but there's perhaps some cause for alarm that he made an early exit from his start against the Boston Red Sox on Sunday with a cut on his right middle finger. He needs that finger to grip his splitter, so he could be in trouble if it doesn't fully heal in time for the start of the Wild Card Series on Friday.
RHP Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
Glasnow had good stuff in his long-awaited return from Tommy John surgery on Sep. 28, including a fastball that got above 99 mph and his signature hammer curveball.
Yet because Glasnow threw just 50 pitches in his debut and 64 on Monday against the Red Sox, there's nonetheless a question about how much he's capable of giving the Rays in the playoffs.
RHP Tony Gonsolin, Los Angeles Dodgers
Gonsolin was leading the National League in wins and ERA when he went on the IL with a forearm strain in August, and he didn't return to the mound until Monday. As he threw only 40 pitches in his return, what kind of workload he's good for and how effective he can be are open questions for the time being.
RHP Clay Holmes, New York Yankees
Holmes is technically only day-to-day with a shoulder strain, and he's "very confident" that he'll be able to pitch in the American League Division Series after receiving a cortisone injection. The Yankees had better hope so, as they surely need the All-Star sinkerballer in their Chad Green- and Michael King-less bullpen.
CF Julio Rodríguez and 3B Eugenio Suárez, Seattle Mariners
Rodríguez only just returned on Monday after a stint on the injured list with a back strain, while Suárez sat from Sep. 17 though Sep. 26 with a broken right index finger. It's fortuitous timing for Seattle that its two best hitters are back in the lineup before the playoffs, but trouble will be brewing if either or both has a setback.
6. LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and 2B Santiago Espinal, Toronto Blue Jays
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Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s Injury: strained left hamstring
Santiago Espinal's Injury: strained left oblique
Status: 10-day IL
The Blue Jays have thus far weathered Gurriel's and Espinal's absences just fine, going 15-9 since the former's last game on Sep. 7 and 7-4 since the latter's last game on Sep. 21.
It would nonetheless be nice if the Jays had both players back in the lineup, and the latest from Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca makes it sound as if it will be a challenge to make this happen before the season ends on Wednesday:
As long as Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, George Springer, Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernández and Alejandro Kirk are still in there, the Blue Jays can obviously feel confident in their lineup even without Gurriel and Espinal.
More offense is never a bad thing, however, and that's what the Blue Jays would have if Gurriel and Espinal were starting over Raimel Tapia and Whit Merrifield. Whereas the latter duo has put up a 96 wRC+ for Toronto, the former had a 107 wRC+ when healthy.
Should Gurriel and Espinal recover in time, the Blue Jays could hope to simply outslug the competition in the playoffs. If not, there will be slightly more pressure on the pitching to hold up its end of the bargain.
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5. LF Tyler O'Neill, St. Louis Cardinals
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Tyler O'Neill's Injury: strained left hamstring
Status: 10-day IL
It's been a rough year for O'Neill, as he had previously missed time with shoulder and hamstring injuries even before he reinjured the latter on Sep. 16.
The good news is that the two-time Gold Glove winner faced live pitching on Monday, but the corresponding less-good news is that he has still yet to run the bases:
With this being the case, it doesn't seem especially likely that O'Neill will play in either of the Cardinals' final two regular-season games. And regardless of when he's healthy enough to play, the nature of his season suggests it will be uncertain if he can stay that way.
O'Neill is more than just an ace defender when he's at his best. He slugged 34 home runs last season and was heating up again before his latest injury. In a 19-game span between Aug. 23 and Sep. 13, he posted a .948 OPS and seven home runs.
Sans O'Neill, the Cardinals have been playing Corey Dickerson in left field. As he's gone just 5-for-40 in O'Neill's stead, St. Louis will have a better chance of playing deep into the postseason if O'Neill can get healthy and do his two-way thing.
4. RHP Blake Treinen and RHP Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Blake Treinen's Injury: right shoulder tightness
Dustin May's Injury: lower back soreness
Status: 15-day IL
To be clear, this is not the extent of the pitching injuries that the Dodgers have right now. There are five other guys, including Daniel Hudson, on the 60-day IL with Walker Buehler, and they also have Phil Bickford and Michael Grove on the 15-day IL.
What makes Treinen and May so crucial, however, is what the team's bullpen and rotation are missing without them.
A healthy Treinen is a live-armed sinkerballer who's hypothetically the shutdown closer that Craig Kimbrel simply hasn't been for the Dodgers. May is a right-handed option for an array of starters that currently leans left-handed, which could be especially beneficial in a matchup against Atlanta's or St. Louis' lefty-killing lineups.
There's been some positive movement on both fronts in the last few days, as Treinen threw a bullpen on Monday and May reported feeling good after his own bullpen on Sunday:
Yet it goes without saying that neither hurler is out of the woods, and particularly not Treinen. The trouble he's had this year hasn't so much concerned throwing as quickly bouncing back afterward. As such, Monday's bullpen was essentially a practice run for the real test at hand.
3. RF Starling Marte, New York Mets
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Starling Marte's Injury: non-displaced fracture of right middle finger
Status: 10-day IL
After suffering a three-game sweep in Atlanta that effectively decided the NL East race, the Mets came out of the weekend sorely in need of some good news.
They kinda-sorta got some on Monday in the form of an update on Marte, who was able to swing off a tee:
Yet Mets manager Buck Showalter tempered expectations on the All-Star outfielder's return, telling reporters: "I know that we're looking more about right now ways to manage it and the discomfort. Trying to see if there's some way. The earliest we would play obviously would be Friday, so we'll see what the next three days bring."
The Mets have done OK in Marte's absence, going 13-10 since he last played on Sep. 6. Their offense has nonetheless missed his power, speed and talent for getting on base, all three of which would likewise be nice things to have as soon as they begin their postseason journey.
As this will be Friday in lieu of next Tuesday if the Mets can't erase Atlanta's 1.5-game lead in the NL East, this past weekend's sweep may prove to be even more devastating in retrospect if Marte isn't ready to go by Friday.
2. Multiple Players, New York Yankees
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Hitters on 10-Day IL: LF Andrew Benintendi (fractured hamate bone in right hand)
Hitters on 60-Day IL: DH Matt Carpenter (fractured left foot)
Pitchers on 15-Day IL: RHP Albert Abreu (right elbow inflammation), RHP Frankie Montas (right shoulder inflammation), LHP Wandy Peralta (left thoracic spine tightness)
The Yankees are about as banged up as any of the other 11 playoff contenders, though none of their injuries looms as large as Carpenter's foot.
The Yankees nixed a return for Carpenter during the club's season-ending series against the Texas Rangers when they transferred him to the 60-day IL on Sunday, but there's still some hope that he'll be back in time for the American League Division Series.
Why is Carpenter so important to the Yankees offense? This is why:
- With Carpenter, May 26-Aug. 8: .807 OPS, 5.8 R/G
- Without Carpenter, Aug. 9-Sep. 28: .693 OPS, 4.3 R/G
As he had a 1.138 OPS and 15 home runs in the 47 games for which he was healthy, Carpenter was very much responsible for that earlier explosion. Likewise, his absence helps explain why that explosion has devolved into something more like a pop.
Otherwise, the Yankees would benefit most from having Benintendi and Peralta back. The former is a Gold Glove-winning defender with a knack for getting on base, while the latter is the reliable left-handed reliever that Aroldis Chapman very much is not.
1. RHP Spencer Strider and 2B Ozzie Albies, Atlanta
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Spencer Strider's Injury: left oblique soreness
Ozzie Albies' Injury: fractured right pinky
Status: 15-day IL for Strider, 10-day IL for Albies
Atlanta seems to be holding out hope that Albies will be able to man second base again at some point this year, but this Sep. 30 report from MLB.com's Mark Bowman makes it sound like a long shot:
The silver lining for Atlanta had been that rookie Vaughn Grissom was playing an excellent two-way game in place of Albies. That's been less true lately, as Grissom is in a 7-for-43 slump over his last 14 games and has ceded everyday duty to Orlando Arcia.
Meanwhile, Atlanta general manager Alex Anthopoulos says the team is taking it slow with Strider's oblique:
Especially with the National League East title and, with it, a first-round bye in the playoffs all but locked up, Atlanta certainly has every reason not to rush Strider's recovery. Ideally, the strategy will result in him being 100-percent healthy for the National League Division Series.
If so, Atlanta will have regained a guy who's a flamethrower—he posted a 2.77 ERA with 165 strikeouts over 107.1 innings since moving into the rotation on May 30. If not, well, that's one less major weapon with which to pursue a second straight World Series title.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference
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