MLB Teams Failing Their Rebuilds in 2022
There's nothing wrong with an MLB team occasionally needing to embrace a rebuilding season, but there's not much worse than getting stuck in rebuild purgatory.
With that in mind, we've identified three teams in each league that are going nowhere this season, and, worse, do not look much better for 2023 or beyond.
For the three big-market teams on the list, the rebuilding process might just be finding a few more million dollars in the couch cushions than usual this offseason to make up for short-sighted decisions last offseason and/or at the trade deadline.
But for the three smaller-market teams that have won a combined zero division titles in the past seven years, well, at least you've gotten comfortable in the basement, right?
Teams are listed in no particular order, save for oscillating between AL and NL.
Detroit Tigers
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It was probably right around Miguel Cabrera's second trip to the IL in 2018 that the Detroit Tigers began to appreciate what an albatross of a contract that would be for the next five-plus seasons. For nearly a half-decade, they have unofficially had 2024 circled as the window when they can actually start contending for a title again.
To that end, the Tigers signed Javier Báez to a six-year deal and Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year pact this past offseason, hoping that those two players would be the veteran pillars of a rebuild.
Here's the thing, though: Both of those contracts have player options after the 2023 season. So, if both of those signings had worked out beautifully and they both emerged as All-Stars in 2022 and/or 2023, they could have leveraged that success into bigger money elsewhere, leaving the Tigers to more or less start over from scratch.
At this point, though, Detroit almost has to hope Báez and Rodriguez do skip town and help them clear the books, because the alternative is needing to actually pay those two guys a combined $123 million from 2024 to 2026, which would be a nightmare if they continue to produce like they have this season.
It doesn't help that Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene—both top prospects in baseball coming into this season—have been underwhelming, that what's left of the farm system is lacking, or that the one bright spot on this year's roster (Tarik Skubal) recently had flexor tendon surgery in his pitching elbow and might miss a good chunk of next season.
For a team that was presumably building toward 2024 for several years, there's just not much cause for excitement, aside from the relief of finally getting out from under Cabrera's salary after next year.
Colorado Rockies
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2023 is when bills start coming due for the Colorado Rockies, and that's bad news for the team's faithful.
The biggest, most painful chunk is the $21 million in deferred money due to Nolan Arenado, from when they made one of the worst trades in MLB history and agreed to eat $51 million of the third baseman's contract.
(And let's not forget 13 months ago when the Rockies made one of the worst non-trades in recent history, failing to get anything in return for Trevor Story before he left as a free agent.)
Beyond that money going to a former player, there are also a bunch of ballooning payments to guys still on the roster. Kris Bryant's salary spikes $10 million (from $18M to $28M). Daniel Bard's salary will increase by $5.1 million. Germán Márquez and Ryan McMahon are each getting $4 million raises, Kyle Freeland goes up by $3.5 million and Elias Díaz gets a $2.5 million pay bump.
So, the same six guys leading the Rockies to the NL West basement will make a combined $29.1 million more in 2023 than they did this season.
On the plus side, Colorado's farm system seems to be in a good place for the first time in a long time. In Zac Veen, Ezequiel Tovar, Adael Amador and Drew Romo, the Rockies have four of the top 75 prospects in the majors, per B/R's Joel Reuter.
On the minus side, those are all position players, and this is a team in dire need of pitching. Seven pitchers have made at least a dozen starts for Colorado this season, and all seven have an ERA north of 4.60. The Rockies have allowed more runs in 2022 than any other team, and there is no sign of that getting better anytime soon.
Los Angeles Angels
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I couldn't decide whether to put the Los Angeles Angels on this list, because they haven't actually embraced rebuilding mode yet.
You would think from this being their eighth consecutive year missing the playoffs that there would have been some sort of teardown and build up along the way. However, they're always at least somewhat competitive and seem to end each year feeling like they might be just one piece away from turning a corner. And after nearly a decade of chasing that dragon, they are entrenched between a rock and a hard place.
They arguably should have jumped into a rebuild at the trade deadline by dealing Shohei Ohtani to bolster what is almost indisputably the worst of the 30 farm systems. Their haul likely wouldn't have quite matched what the Washington Nationals got for Juan Soto and Josh Bell, but they could have at least gotten a few top-tier prospects for him.
But they didn't. So here they sit in no-man's land, hoping they can afford to re-sign their hitting/pitching unicorn while also worrying about how they could fill out a competent roster around Ohtani if they do manage to keep him around.
They have more than $75 million tied up in just Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon for each of the next four seasons, and Ohtani could seek $50 million per year, according to the New York Post's Jon Heyman, when he hits free agency in November 2023. That would be a ridiculous amount of money for three players, but there's just not much else they can do.
In a perfect world, starting pitchers Patrick Sandoval, José Suarez and Reid Detmers will all continue to thrive while each under team control through at least 2026. Taylor Ward will somehow reharness his incredible hitting from the first seven weeks of this season. And both Trout and Rendon will stay healthy for a change. Match all that with Ohtani continuing to perform at an MVP level and maybe it all finally comes together for 90-plus wins.
But with almost no room in the budget for free-agency splashes and next to nothing in the talent pipeline, it's a tightrope walk on which they are teetering perilously over another eight-plus years of being irrelevant in October.
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Miami Marlins
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The good news is the Miami Marlins have Sandy Alcantara locked up through 2026 on a very team-friendly, five-year, $56 million deal (plus a club option for $21 million in 2027). For a team that often ranks bottom-five in the majors in payroll, having a bona fide ace for that type of money is huge.
The bad news for the Marlins is...pretty much everything else.
The offseason signings of Avisaíl García (four years, $53 million) and Jorge Soler (three years, $36 million) have not panned out in the slightest, basically wasting all of the benefit of having Alcantara on the cheap.
Breakout hitting star Jazz Chisholm Jr. lasted just 60 games before literally breaking his back trying to carry this offense. And after looking like he might rival Alcantara for the NL Cy Young through the first 10 weeks of the season, Pablo López has a 4.95 ERA over his last 13 starts.
Of the 16 Marlins to make at least 100 plate appearances this season, the only one with at least 15 home runs (Jesus Aguilar) was recently released, and not one is batting .260 or better.
And with Anthony Bass out of the picture (traded to Toronto), Miami does not have a single reliever worth more than 0.3 fWAR in 2022.
The club did at least get a solid prospect (SS/3B Jordan Groshans) in the Bass trade, but it feels like there are no building blocks here aside from Alcantara and Chisholm. And that's ridiculous for a team that has been in rebuilding mode for five years.
Better hope Soler and García turn a corner in 2023 or Miami will waste another year of Alcantara's prime—and might need to start considering at next year's trade deadline if it would be willing to part with the remainder of that incredible contract in exchange for a prospect package maybe 80 percent as good as what Washington got for Soto.
Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox don't do rebuilds so much as they reload.
The last time they missed at least four consecutive postseasons was from 1982 to 1985. And since the strike-shortened 1994 campaign, they have only once strung together consecutive losing seasons, briefly bottoming out in 2014 and 2015.
Needless to say, this isn't a "Look at how they've continued to screw things up yet again" type of situation like it is for the Tigers, Rockies and Marlins.
All the same, where exactly is this team headed over the next couple of years?
Boston didn't seem to have any idea whether it was buying or selling at the trade deadline. It traded Jake Diekman and Christian Vázquez, but then brought in Tommy Pham, Reese McGuire and Eric Hosmer—the latter seemingly on a whim when Hosmer used his no-trade clause to stay out of the Juan Soto/Padres trade.
But the Red Sox neither did anything at the deadline to get better for this season nor parted with any of the impending free agents (J.D. Martinez, Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha) who would have at least been worth some prospects on the open market.
They're probably going to lose (or need to pay a lot more to keep) Xander Bogaerts if and when he declines his player option ahead of next season. Conversely, they're probably going to be stuck paying Chris Sale $55 million for the next two years unless he inexplicably declines his player option after yet another injury-plagued campaign.
And they only have one year of team control left on Rafael Devers, so getting him a long-term contract is a top priority.
Even without worrying about the Devers portion of the equation, there's an awful lot of work to be done this offseason. They do have deep enough pockets to salvage this mess, but as things stand, the Red Sox have no business showing up in any of the "way too early 2023 playoff predictions" pieces that we all put out as soon as the World Series ends.
San Francisco Giants
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If Boston is on the list, we've got to include the San Francisco Giants, since the Red Sox and Giants have been kindred spirits in 2022.
Like Boston, San Francisco was in a rough spot at the trade deadline, sitting around .500, not wanting to throw in the towel while also not wanting to throw any more money at this mediocre season. The Giants made a handful of trades but neither dumped much salary nor added any noteworthy prospects. It just felt like they were making trades for the sake of making trades.
What they should have done was trade impending free agent Joc Pederson and Carlos Rodon—who has a player option for next season that he is 100 percent going to decline, and who would have been right up there with Luis Castillo for best starting pitcher dealt.
Instead, they kept those guys on their sinking ship and stand to lose both their best hitter and their best pitcher for nothing.
They do have Logan Webb and Thairo Estrada under team control through at least 2025, and there's hope that top prospects Marco Luciano and Kyle Harrison make a tangible impact next season.
But if this team is going to compete in 2023, it needs its aging, somewhat-expensive, not-that-productive-in-2022 veterans to play well and stay healthy, which is a big ask.
San Francisco is on the hook for $61 million to Brandon Crawford, Tommy La Stella, Alex Cobb, Alex Wood and Anthony DeSclafani, plus a $13 million club option (or $5 million buyout) for Evan Longoria. Cobb has had a solid season, Wood has pitched better than his 5.10 ERA suggests (3.76 FIP) and both Crawford and Longoria can still shine on occasion.
That nucleus as a whole needs to be much better, though, or the Giants will be even worse next year.
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