College Football: B/R Experts Answer Biggest Questions for Week 1
Settle into your favorite seat, my friends, because we're about to have a busy weekend of college football.
The first complete slate of the 2022 college football season is underway, and the six members of B/R's expert panel—Max Escarpio, David Kenyon, Adam Kramer, Kerry Miller, Morgan Moriarty and Brad Shepard—are here to get you ready for Week 1.
Who wins the much-anticipated Top Five showdown in Columbus between Notre Dame and Ohio State? How about the other Top 25 matchups? Which first-year coach has a memorable debut?
We're covering those questions and plenty more.
Which Game Will Feature the Most Total Points?
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Kerry Miller
Western Kentucky at Hawaii.
Hawaii's defense was decimated by Vanderbilt in that 63-10 Week 0 blowout. The Commodores scored two defensive touchdowns and still racked up over 600 total yards. Now, the Warriors D has to deal with a WKU offense that ranked second nationally with 44.2 points per game in 2021.
Granted, with quarterback Bailey Zappe now in the NFL, the Hilltoppers figure to take a step backward on offense this season. But their latest new-to-FBS transfer quarterback (Austin Reed from D-II West Florida) looked good enough in the Hilltoppers' opening win over Austin Peay.
Meanwhile, Western Kentucky's defense allowed 27 points to an FCS offense in that one, so Hawaii should be able to follow suit. Look for this total to eclipse 70.
David Kenyon
Based on the offensive philosophy of both teams, Louisiana's trip to Texas is appealing. The talent gap is cause for hesitation, even though we're hoping for plenty of explosiveness from both teams.
Instead, let's head toward the nation's capital with the first-ever matchup between Buffalo and Maryland.
Buffalo ranked 110th nationally with 6.3 yards allowed per snap in 2021. Maryland's offense with quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa and a terrific receiving corps should have a massive day.
However, the Terrapins have much to prove on defense. They, in short, were absolutely abysmal last season, surrendering 30.7 points per game. Maryland will win, but a sluggish start from the defense could mean 80-plus combined points in College Park.
What's the Best Matchup Outside the AP Top 25?
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Brad Shepard
Florida State is heading to New Orleans to take on a new-look LSU team Sunday night, and that's going to be a lot of fun.
The Bayou Bengals fell on hard times in the last two tumultuous years of the Ed Orgeron era after a national title, and they went out and made the most interesting hire of the offseason in Brian Kelly. Can he silence the doubters that it wasn't a good "culture fit"? This is the first opportunity for him to do that.
Is it going to be Jayden Daniels or Garrett Nussmeier at quarterback for LSU? If it's Daniels, he could be the poster player for a program that infused a bunch of talent from the portal and recruiting after last year's bowl-game skeleton crew roster.
Mike Norvell needs a program turnaround, too, and a season-opening domination of Duquesne was nice, but it told us little. Nobody knows what to expect from either team, so we'll learn a lot when they match up in what looks like an evenly matched game.
David Kenyon
As usual, I'll try to avoid repeats. Sunday's clash between Florida State and LSU is undoubtedly a top game.
Otherwise, though, I'm excited to watch North Carolina make the relatively quick journey to Appalachian State. Interestingly enough, it's the first of two extremely rare road trips to non-power programs for the Tar Heels, who travel to Georgia State next weekend.
Last week, UNC quarterback Drake Maye tossed five touchdowns in his starting debut. Now, he'll face an Appalachian State squad that traditionally has either the Sun Belt's best defense or close to it.
The matchup is both a solid early test for UNC and a good indication of just how dangerous App State can be. Texas A&M, next Saturday's opponent, will be observing closely.
I also have an eye on FCS title contender South Dakota State in the Jackrabbits' trip to Iowa. There is precedent for an upset: Six years ago, FCS powerhouse North Dakota State won in Iowa City, and the Hawkeyes still finished 8-5 that season.
Which Top 25 Team Will Lose to an Unranked Foe?
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Max Escarpio
When the Top 25 rankings were released, a few notable teams looked to have a definite chance to break into the poll very early in the season: Tennessee, LSU, Penn State and Florida.
The Gators welcome No. 7 Utah to The Swamp this weekend for a matchup under the lights. UF has a couple of dynamic weapons that'll help it compete with the majority of teams in the country, including one of the top quarterbacks in Anthony Richardson.
Utah will be a difficult first opponent, especially with the arrival of new UF head coach Billy Napier, but Gainesville will be electrified as it awaits a new era. Florida pulls the upset.
David Kenyon
How quickly can this come back to haunt me?
Typically risk-averse, I am saying zero during the weekend slate. The main obstacle is that, among the most likely candidates, I find myself high on those programs as the season begins.
Utah's trip to Florida is the marquee option, but I love the Utes. Houston traveling to UTSA is a solid choice, yet I have UH representing the Group of Five conferences in a New Year's Six bowl. South Florida could be a mini-breakout team with Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanon at quarterback, but BYU is one of my favorite non-title contenders.
Can't wait to see where this goes hilariously wrong!
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Which First-Year Coach Has the Strongest Debut?
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Brad Shepard
This one's easy: Oregon's Dan Lanning. The only other option would be Brian Kelly, who is going to coach against a brand-name program in Florida State but should win a virtual home game in New Orleans. Most other big hires are playing cupcakes.
Lanning may not beat Georgia, but he's getting 17 points in Atlanta against the defending national champions. He knows the Dawgs defense inside and out, having run that side of the ball a year ago, and the Ducks have plenty of weapons.
This is going to be a much closer game than many realize, even if I think UGA will win. Expect Oregon to hold its own in the Peach State and have a strong showing to build on. This could be a catalyst for big things to come for the young, energetic, first-time head coach.
David Kenyon
USC's Lincoln Riley is an uninspiring choice, considering the Trojans host Rice. Expect a shredded box score in that matchup, but that doesn't move the needle, does it?
After watching Rhett Lashlee modernize Miami's offense for two years, I'm looking forward to his SMU return. He oversaw the Mustangs' prolific scoring attacks in 2018 and 2019, which led to him landing that Miami promotion in the first place.
This year, SMU returns second-team All-AAC quarterback Tanner Mordecai and added impact transfers at running back, receiver and the offensive line.
North Texas opened the 2022 campaign with a respectable road blowout of UTEP, but SMU will thrive in Lashlee's debut.
Will No. 23 Cincinnati Take Down No. 19 Arkansas?
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Max Escarpio
Arkansas is ready for high-level competition, and it cannot start the season with a loss at home. The Hogs will be facing top-notch programs like Alabama, LSU and Texas A&M, so an opening loss against a team in the AAC is just not an option.
Quarterback KJ Jefferson and the Razorbacks added transfers who can make an immediate impact, including wide receivers Jadon Haselwood and Matt Landers. They upgraded their defense as well, adding linemen like Landon Jackson and Terry Hampton while getting Dwight McGlothern and Latavious Brini in the secondary.
They're an improved team that went 9-4 and finished third in the SEC West last year. It's doubtful that Cincinnati will go into Fayetteville and hand the Razorbacks their first loss against a nonconference team in a season opener since 2006. Arkansas should take this game and quickly turn the page for another test in Week 2 against South Carolina.
Adam Kramer
No.
Allow me to explain.
First and foremost, Cincinnati was both awesome and deserving of a playoff spot last year. The Bearcats were unable to upend Alabama in the semis, but that isn't why I'm picking against them here.
In fact, the respect I had for last year's team, as weird as this sounds, is one of the reasons I really like Arkansas in this game.
The Bearcats lost a ton on both sides of the ball. Five of the first 100 picks in the NFL draft came from Cincinnati. This year, Luke Fickell has to replace his starting QB, running back, top two cornerbacks, a star wideout, key defensive pieces and more.
It's a lot, and Arkansas is primed to take advantage of all of those losses with an early game at home. Simply put, Cincinnati isn't equipped to replace those players in a way only a select few can. (Alabama, I am looking at you.)
Plus, Arkansas is talented. Jefferson has a ton of game, and I expect a big jump from him this year. And yes, playing at home doesn't hurt. You know the Hogs (and their fans) will be up for this one.
What Will Be the Takeaway from No. 11 Oregon vs. No. 3 Georgia
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Kerry Miller
That Bo Nix didn't transfer far enough away from Georgia.
Against teams not named Georgia, Nix had a decent three seasons at Auburn. Not great, but decent. Thirty-eight touchdowns against 14 interceptions in 31 games and a cumulative passing efficiency rating of 130.1. On the mobility front, more than 800 rushing yards and 17 rushing touchdowns. He was more or less "Jacoby Brissett in his two seasons at North Carolina State" good, which certainly isn't bad.
In three games against that vaunted UGA D, though, Nix had a 97.6 PER while Auburn scored a combined 30 points. He averaged just one yard per carry and looked perpetually helpless, especially in the two most recent meetings.
And now in his first game with a first-year head coach and an offense tasked with replacing all four of last year's leaders in total yards from scrimmage, he has to deal with those Bulldogs once again.
The good news is Georgia lost five defensive players as first-round picks, and Nix's new head coach (Dan Lanning) was UGA's defensive coordinator for the past three seasons, which sure seems relevant. But the outcome will be the same with a Nix-led offense producing just two scoring drives in a game that ends somewhere in the vicinity of 31-13.
David Kenyon
From the Georgia side, that its offense is far from settled.
We know tight end Brock Bowers is a star. We expect good-to-great performance from a veteran offensive line and understand what Stetson Bennett can provide under center. But the rest of the personnel is still looking to prove itself.
AD Mitchell could be UGA's top wideout, and Arik Gilbert or Darnell Washington might be a nightmare to defend at tight end. However, we need to see it happen, and Oregon's defense is a solid unit overall.
Besides, as Kerry mentioned, Lanning previously served on the UGA staff. Even though I'm not expecting the Dawgs to face a nail-biting finish, he'll have a few tricks prepared to test—not necessarily expose, but certainly attack—his former team.
Will Florida Ruin No. 7 Utah's Trip to Gainesville?
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Morgan Moriarty
I really would love to pick Florida. It's a night game in The Swamp, and the atmosphere is going to be top-notch. That Utah is just a three-point favorite makes it all the more tempting to pick the Gators.
But I am going to have to answer no, because there is so much talent on this Utah team. Quarterback Cameron Rising is back along with seven other starters, including running back Tavion Thomas. This will be close throughout, but Utah's offense ices the win with a late score.
There's been plenty of hype surrounding UF quarterback Anthony Richardson this offseason. His size and athleticism warrant it, especially since he had some big runs last season en route to 401 rushing yards on just 51 carries.
But he only completed 38 passes last year, so Billy Napier's offense might be a bit conservative.
Call me a pessimistic Florida graduate, sure, but Florida won't be able to keep pace with Utah in Napier's Year 1. It would be fun if Florida proved me wrong, though.
Brad Shepard
No. The Napier era is going to be fine, but this is a tall draw to begin. Utah won the Pac-12 a season ago, and once the Utes got going, they were one of the most physical programs out West.
This is a team that has offensive catalysts in Rising, Thomas and plenty of weapons on that side of the ball. All-world linebacker Devin Lloyd is irreplaceable, but there are a lot of good players on defense, too.
Going into The Swamp is extremely tough, and Florida is a trendy upset pick that is ready to chomp if Utah gets off to the same slow start it did a season ago. But if Kyle Whittingham’s team takes care of business, it is the better squad. Regardless, this is going to be a close game that is fun to watch.
No. 5 Notre Dame at No. 2 Ohio State: Who You Got?
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Max Escarpio
At first glance, it may look like a hard decision, but Ohio State is way too skilled to start the season 0-1. It's a top-three team in the country, currently in a hierarchical rank with Alabama. Pair this with the Buckeyes playing at home, and it doesn't look promising for Notre Dame and new head coach Marcus Freeman.
The Buckeyes have Heisman Trophy candidate C.J. Stroud under center, throwing to some of the best receivers in the nation, including Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Their offense should be rolling from the start, since they're already accustomed to playing together.
While Ohio State is returning most of its key starters, the Fighting Irish are rolling with quarterback Tyler Buchner. He doesn't have many reps on the big stage, completing just 21 passes for 298 yards last season. Inexperienced teams rarely go to Columbus and steal the first game from the Buckeyes, and it won't happen this year.
Adam Kramer
I have Ohio State, and I understand this is a very boring, predictable pick. With that being said, this is my pick to win the national championship.
What did you expect me to say?
With a point spread that has ballooned to two-and-a-half touchdowns, a lot of others feel the same way. The reality for this one is pretty simple: Ohio State, at least on paper, should be better in pretty much every area. Well, except tight end. ND's Michael Mayer is on another level.
Now, I know what you're thinking. Adam, the defense wasn't great last year.
You are correct, astute reader. And as a result, Ohio State hired Jim Knowles, the best defensive coordinator in college football. Oh, and it pairs him up with an offense, led by Stroud, that should be both balanced and explosive.
The other element that is critically important in this game? Location.
The fact that it will be played in Columbus, Ohio, on a Saturday night is an enormous deal. Ohio State will take full advantage of the crowd. Don't expect the final score to be separated by single digits.
Morgan Moriarty
This looks like it'll be one of the best games of the weekend by far. I am going to pick Ohio State, because this team is loaded with talent. The Buckeyes return 14 starters, including Stroud, who could win the Heisman this year, leading receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba and leading rusher TreVeyon Henderson.
That's not to say Notre Dame isn't going to give the Buckeyes a fight. Freeman is definitely looking to have an impressive debut—especially after his team let a 28-7 lead slip against Oklahoma State in a 37-35 Fiesta Bowl loss. The Irish get eight starters back on a defense that finished 14th with 19.7 points allowed per game.
Buchner will be thrown into the fire, making his first start on the road. I do see him playing well and contributing to ND's running game with his feet. But ultimately, home-field advantage and Ohio State's veteran offense give the Bucks the edge.
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.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
