Breaking Down Possible Shohei Ohtani and Mike Trout Trades Under New Angels Ownership

Reports began to surface on Tuesday afternoon that Los Angeles Angels owner Arte Moreno is exploring a possible sale of the franchise that he has possessed since 2003.

And if the article that ESPN's Buster Olney wrote on the matter is indicative of how things have been going in Anaheim over the past two decades, this is most welcome news for Angels fans.

Olney reports that even though the Angels' operations department reached a consensus that trading away Shohei Ohtani prior to the Aug. 2 trade deadline was the best course of action for the long-term outlook of the franchise, Moreno immediately put the kibosh on parting with the two-way generational talent.

"It was an example of Moreno single-handedly steering his team, again—and probably in the wrong direction, again," Olney wrote.

The irony, of course, is that one of his anonymous peers told Olney, "He's had enough...he's got a s--tty team that's going to be bad for a long time."

Moreno made this bed with his propensity for egregiously over-paying on long-term deals with hitters already at or near the end of their primes—see: Albert Pujols, Justin Upton, Josh Hamilton, Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews Jr. and Anthony Rendon—but now he wants someone else to sleep in it.

And when that to-be-determined new billionaire inherits this mess, they will need to make a couple of massive decisions in a hurry, because this franchise is at (and possibly already past) a critical crossroads.

The Angels haven't made the postseason since 2014 and last won a postseason game in 2009. Their current winning percentage (.419) is on pace to be their worst since going 47-68 (.409) in the lockout-shortened 1994 campaign. The franchise record of 95 losses in a single season (happened in both 1968 and 1980) is at least in some danger of being broken.

And if you're thinking, "Well, things are bad now, but maybe they're building toward something in the near future," buddy, do I have some bad news for you.

Shortly after the draft one month ago, our Joel Reuter rated the Angels farm system as the worst among the 30 franchises. MLB.com put out updated farm system rankings on Tuesday and also had the Angels in dead last. ESPN was a little more optimistic in putting the Angels at 27th in its post-trade deadline farm system rankings, but still, not great!

But could a couple of offseason trades possibly rescue them from their October-less abyss?

They Could Trade Away Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

As previously mentioned, the best time to deal the hitting/pitching unicorn was at the trade deadline. Maybe the haul wouldn't have quite matched what the Washington Nationals got for Juan Soto, but many teams surely would have paid a pretty penny for (at least) 1.5 years of Ohtani's services.

L.A..'s return on an Ohtani trade this offseason would be considerably lower. He only has one year left before hitting free agency. He is arbitration-eligible for that one year, but the cost for that one year is certain to skyrocket well beyond the $5.5 million that he's making this season from that two-year, $8.5 million deal he signed after an extremely disappointing 2020 campaign.

After winning AL MVP in 2018 and finishing top 10 in 2019, Mookie Betts avoided arbitration with a record-setting one-year, $27 million deal in January 2020. Ohtani won AL MVP last year and is well on his way to a top-two finish this year, so it wouldn't be a surprise if he gets $30 million in 2023 (before signing a long-term deal with an average salary that eclipses $40 million).

In other words, he would be a mighty expensive one-year rental, and getting some team to give up a bunch of top prospects for him might be tough.

With David Price, Trea Turner, Clayton Kershaw, Craig Kimbrel, Joey Gallo, Andrew Heaney and Tyler Anderson all hitting free agency, the Los Angeles Dodgers have well over $100 million coming off the books this offseason—and could decline club options on Danny Duffy, Daniel Hudson and Justin Turner to clear up over $25 million more. They have money to burn.

Moreover, they have a bunch of top prospects, as evidenced by the fact that they were one of the top suitors for Soto.

They might not want to part with the likes of Diego Cartaya and Bobby Miller to get a guy who they could just throw a whole bunch of money at next offseason, but the Angels could also dangle Ohtani to the Yankees, Red Sox or Cubs—How awesome would it be to pair Ohtani with Seiya Suzuki in Chicago?—to force the Dodgers' hand.

They Could Trade Away Mike Trout

Mike Trout (G Fiume/Getty Images)

Trading away Trout would be complicated on multiple levels, not the least of which is his full no-trade clause.

I have to believe he'd be willing to waive that clause if it means going to a team that might actually be competitive again before he is completely past his prime. But if Trout is dead set on staying in Anaheim, cashing his paycheck and enjoying his Octobers off, there's nothing the new ownership can do about it.

The second complication is his recent injury history.

Out of 832 possible games since the beginning of 2017, Trout has played in just 562, or 67.5 percent. He missed most of last season with a calf injury and a good chunk of the current campaign with a costovertebral dysfunction. And let me assure you, back issues do not tend to get better as you enter your mid-30s.

And the third complication is the sheer number of dollars and years left on his contract.

Even if the recent injuries don't concern a possible trade partner, Trout is 31 and under contract through 2030 at $37.1 million each year. That's eight more seasons for a combined cost of just under $300 million.

To be fair, Trout at that price almost looks like a bargain with the way teams have been spending lately. If Corey Seager is worth $325 million for 10 years and Francisco Lindor is worth $341 million for 10 years, $300 million for eight years of a three-time MVP and nine-time top-five MVP vote-getter doesn't seem too shabby.

The trick, of course, is convincing a deep-pocketed team that the potential reward is worth the risk.

A Trout trade may need to resemble what the Rockies did with Nolan Arenado in February 2021, in which they agreed to eat $50 million and accepted a platter of prospects devoid of star potential. But at least the Angels could afford to lock up Ohtani for the long haul if they pass the Trout buck elsewhere.

They Could Trade Both Stars Away

Duane Burleson/Getty Images

The unfortunate part of this option is the Angels will still be paying Anthony Rendon $38.6 million in each of the next four years. You can't properly hit the reset button while stuck with a bad contract—as the Washington Nationals are finding out the hard way with Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin.

But even though the Angels couldn't go full 2013 Houston Astros with a tank job, trading away Trout would save $300 million over the next eight years, while trading away Ohtani would provide a much-needed boost to a woeful farm system.

That means increased financial flexibility and better long-term potential.

Now, the on-field product for the next few years would be a hot mess, and they'd be throwing away a whole bunch of marketability by parting with what are arguably two of the three biggest names (along with Aaron Judge) in the entire sport.

But if you're most likely going to lose Ohtani after next season and your on-field product is already as bad as it has been in decades, why not just steer into the skid and start targeting 2027 for a championship push?

Buying a team and immediately gutting its star power is a rough way to make a first impression on your new fanbase, but it might be the best approach for the new ownership.

They Could Do Nothing and Hope to Re-Sign Ohtani

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

They would need to find a new owner like the Mets' Steve Cohen who seems to enjoy spending as much money as possible to chase a title, but the Angels could always just roll with what they've got and try to apply the fantasy baseball "stars and scrubs" auction draft strategy to real life moving forward.

Let's assume Ohtani is going to cost $40 million per year on a long-term deal. It might be more than that, considering he's possibly headed for both MVP and Cy Young votes this season and should probably be paid like two great players in one, but humor me here.

The Angels are already on the hook for $75.7 million between Trout and Rendon in each of the next four years. Adding $40 million for Ohtani would take them over $115 million for the trio.

That's a lot of money on a small number of players.

But the league average payroll these days is nearly $150 million. The Angels have ended each of the last five non-pandemic-shortened seasons north of $165 million. And in that L.A. market, they could surely eclipse $200 million and still turn a profit—especially if it means added revenue from postseason tickets for a change.

Let's not forget, the Angels started out 27-17 with a plus-53 run differential and looked like a legitimate World Series contender just three months ago—before Rendon got hurt and before Taylor Ward cooled off drastically. They've been the worst team in the majors since then with a 25-55 record, but standing pat and hoping for the best in 2023 might not be the worst idea.

The risk in both this approach and the "Trade Trout; Re-Sign Ohtani" route is that he may have no interest in staying with the Angels beyond next season. But all four options have both their risks and rewards, and I would roll the dice with doing nothing.

It could end disastrously. Ohtani might walk next offseason, leaving the Angels with nothing more than a compensatory pick. Trout and Rendon might never be everyday players again, and this could be an expensive basement-dweller for years to come.

When you can take one last ride with three of the best players (when healthy) of the past half-decade, though, you neither look that gift horse in the mouth nor try to sell it for 80 cents on the dollar. Try to win it all in 2023 and hope that convinces Ohtani to stay.

Or go ahead and trade away Trout and Ohtani in hopes of substantially expediting the impending rebuild. Either could work, and if Moreno actually does sell, it's up to a TBD billionaire to make that difficult call.