Fantasy Football 2022: Rankings for Top Sleeper and Bust Candidates
The 2022 NFL preseason kicked off on Thursday night with the annual Hall of Fame Game. This means that the regular season isn't far off, and for fantasy enthusiasts, it's time for season-long drafts.
Ideally, you won't be drafting early in the preseason, because exhibition injuries are a thing. It's never too soon, though, to start homing in on who to target. This usually entails identifying players who can provide consistent, high-end production and ones who provide great middle- and late-round valueโthe fabled sleeper.
Just as important to fantasy success, however, is avoiding busts who don't yield value commensurate to their draft position.
We'll examine both ends of the spectrum here, diving into some top sleeper and bust candidates. We'll examine the risks and rewards for each player and their current fantasy rankings for point-per-reception (PPR) formats.
Quarterback
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Sleeper: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
We'll kick off our list with second-year Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence. While Lawrence didn't appear in the Hall of Fame Game, he'll be on the field soon enough.
When we last saw the Clemson product, he was struggling through the mess that was Jacksonville's 2021 campaign. Saddled with an inexperienced NFL coach in Urban Meyer and a lackluster supporting cast, Lawrence failed to gain fantasy traction. He finished with 3,641 passing yards, 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
However, Lawrence is now under the guidance of Doug Pederson, a Super Bowl-winning coach who managed to coax early Pro Bowl-caliber play out of Carson Wentz. Lawrence should also have a better skill group with Christian Kirk and a healthy Travis Etienne Jr. in the fold.
While we may not see Lawrence make the sort of second-year leap that Joe Burrow did last season, we may see results akin to those Lawrence produced in college (90 touchdowns in three seasons). The generational talent he had coming into the 2021 draft hasn't just disappeared.
With a positional ranking of 18th, Lawrence will be valued as a mid-level backup in most season-long leagues. However, he has the potential to become a quality starter or high-end streamer.
Bust: Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Managers should be much more cautious about targeting Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford this summer. The former Detroit Lions star was fantastic more often than not last year, finishing with 4,886 yards 41 touchdowns and 17 interceptions.
However, Stafford represents a gamble as the 11th-ranked quarterback.
A few factors are in play here. The first is that Stafford won't be working with the same supporting cast. Robert Woods and Odell Beckham Jr. are both goneโBeckham remains unsignedโwhile Los Angeles added Allen Robinson II in free agency.
The other potential issue is that Stafford is dealing with an elbow issue. He had a procedure early in the offseason and did not throw in organized team activities (OTAs) or minicamp. It continues to be a problem during training camp.
"My understanding, this elbow issue, which actually cropped up in the spring, is described to me as bad tendinitis," NFL Media's Ian Rapoport said on Inside Training Camp Live. "I don't sense any stress about it, but it's a quarterback. It's a throwing arm. Obviously, something we need to monitor going forward."
Even if Stafford's elbow doesn't cause him to miss time or severely affect his throws in the regular season, it could lead to a slow start. He hasn't gotten in a normal offseason with his receivers, and the Rams have a tough opening schedule that features all three divisional foes in the first month.
Running Back
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Sleeper: Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
Fantasy value can often be found in the rookie pool, and a few first-year running backs are gaining traction. Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker III and James Cook are all ranked inside the top 40 of running backs.
Houston Texans' fourth-round pick Dameon Pierce, ranked 49th, isn't as highly valued. However, he has an equally good chance of being a rookie standout. The Florida product tallied 574 rushing yards, 216 receiving yards and 16 combined touchdowns in his final college season. He's also picking things up quickly in Texans camp.
"When you're asking some small details on routes and just run techniques or whatever, that's when you know someone is really locking in and picking it up quickly," veteran back Rex Burkhead said of Pierce, per Drew Dougherty of the team's official website.
Pierce's draft stock is likely low because of the presence of Burkhead and offseason acquisition Marlon Mack. However, the rookie should stand a reasonable chance of emerging as the lead ball carrier in 2022.
Mack has been a 1,000-yard rusher before, but he suffered a torn Achilles in 2020 and has logged only 32 carries over the past two seasons.
Obviously, managers will want to monitor the Texans' backfield during the preseason, but Pierce has enough dual-threat value to be a solid flex option with upside.
Bust: Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
The Rams played the majority of the 2021 season without running back Cam Akers. He suffered a torn Achilles during the summer and only returned for one regular-season contest and the playoffs.
Clearly, many are expecting a bounce-back season for Akers, as he is ranked 18th among running backs. That's ahead of projected starters like Josh Jacobs, Elijah Mitchell and Antonio Gibson and only four spots lower than fantasy standout Nick Chubbโand it's too high.
With Darrell Henderson and rookie fifth-round pick Kyren Williams on the roster, Akers isn't guaranteed to be a bell-cow back. It's also worth noting that he was woefully inefficient after returning last postseason.
In the playoffs, Akers averaged only 2.6 yards per carry and two receptions per game. He did not find the end zone.
Akers also doesn't provide a ton of PPR upside, as he's averaged only one catch per game during the regular season as a Ram. Much of Akers' fantasy hype seems to stem from his 171-yard performance against the New England Patriots as a rookie. However, he hasn't consistently produced like a high-end backโhe averaged a good-not-great 4.3 yards per carry that season and has three total touchdowns in 14 career games.
Top-20 RBs should be high-floor players, and Akers is anything but that.
Wide Receiver
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Sleeper: Allen Lazard, Green Bay Packers
Fantasy star Davante Adams is no longer Aaron Rodgers' top target for the Green Bay Packers. He was dealt to the Las Vegas Raiders, which leaves an opening for that No. 1 role. It might just be fifth-year wideout Allen Lazard.
Lazard is coming off a solid campaign as Green Bay's No. 2 receiver. He caught 40 passes for 513 yards and eight touchdowns. While Green Bay did add Sammy Watkins and rookie second-round pick Christian Watson, Watkins has never been particularly consistent. Watson, meanwhile, is out of camp following knee surgery.
Green Bay also parted with Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown along with Adams. While the Packers are quite likely to use a committee approach at receiver, Rodgers believes that Lazard can emerge as the No .1.
"I really think Allen is ready to make a jump and be a No. 1 receiver," Rodgers said, per Steve Megargee of the Associated Press.
We're not likely to see Lazard produce Adams-like numbers in 2022, but he could easily double his reception and yardage totals from last season. As the 43rd-ranked receiver, Lazard has true sleeper potential.
Bust: Jaylen Waddle, Miami Dolphins
Adams wasn't the only big-name receiver traded this offseason. The Kansas City Chiefs dealt Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins in a blockbuster move that should aid quarterback Tua Tagovailoa tremendously.
At the same time, though, it's likely to significantly hurt the fantasy value of Dolphins wideout Jaylen Waddle.
Waddle emerged as Miami's top option as a rookie last season, finishing with a rookie-record 104 receptions and 1,015 yards with seven combined touchdowns. However, Waddle was targeted 140 times in 2021, and that number will likely decrease with Hill in the lineup.
Further impacting Waddle's target share are the additions of running backs Chase Edmonds, Raheem Mostert and Sony Michel.
New head coach Mike McDaniel utilized a run-based offense with the San Francisco 49ers and may take a similar approach in Miami. It would be in stark contrast to last year's offense, which ranked just 18th in rushing attempts and eighth in pass attempts.
With a new No. 1 receiver in Miami and a more balanced offense, Waddle should see a dip in PPR upside. Yet he's still ranked 16th among receivers. Waddle should be a quality No. 2 receiver in fantasy, but he's being valued as a borderline WR1. He shouldn't be.
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Tight End
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Sleeper: Albert Okwuegbunam, Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos tight end Albert Okwuegbunam might not be a well-known fantasy option, but he did flash some potential in 2021 as the No. 2 behind Noah Fant. In 14 games with six starts, Okwuegbunam caught 33 passes for 330 yards and two touchdowns.
Ranked just 17th among fantasy tight ends, Okwuegbunam isn't carrying high expectations into draft season. However, he's likely headed toward a much larger role than he had last season.
Fant was traded to Seattle in the deal that brought Russell Wilson to Denver. The Broncos also recently lost wide receiver Tim Patrick for the season to a torn ACL.
Okwuegbunam should be Wilson's primary target at tight end, and he could see an expanded red-zone role with the 6'4" Patrick out of the lineup.
In addition, Denver is getting a significant upgrade at quarterback with Wilson taking over for the subpar tandem of Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. Okwuegbunam should be a viable streamer and has the upside of a top-10 tight end if he takes off in Justin Outten's offense.
Bust: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions
Ranked seventh among tight ends, T.J. Hockenson of the Detroit Lions is a bit overvalued. He's been a reliable second-tier option when healthy, but he has also landed on injured reserve (concussion, thumb) in two of his three seasons.
When Hockenson was healthy in 2020, he caught 67 passes for 723 yards and six touchdowns. In 12 games last season, he had 61 catches for only 583 yards and four scores. That's solid PPR value but not top-tier production.
The other factor to consider is Detroit's addition of receivers DJ Chark Jr. and rookie first-round pick Jameson Williams. Williams is recovering from a torn ACL and may not be a factor until mid-season, but Chark should provide Jared Goff with another reliable perimeter target.
Last year, the passing game largely revolved around Hockenson and Amon-Ra St. Brown. This season, Chark, a healthy D'Andre Swift (62 receptions in 2021) and eventually Williams could significantly cut into Hockenson's target share.
Hockenson carries some legitimate bust potential in 2022, and managers should consider players like Zach Ertz and Dalton Schultz (both ranked below Hockenson) as top-10 alternatives.
*Rankings from FantasyPros and based on PPR Scoring.
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