Buying or Selling Way-Too-Soon 2022-23 NBA MVP Odds
With NBA Summer League action in full swing, the NBA's biggest stars have ceded the stage to the up-and-comers. Yet even as the focus shifts to fringe talents and young prospects, the release of early MVP odds shows marquee names are never far from the spotlight.
None of the top bets are surprises, though the order might raise some eyebrows. Here, we'll run through the handful of MVP candidates currently listed by oddsmakers as the favorites and comment on which look most accurate and which feel a little off.
For reference, here's the list of the top 10 we'll work from, via FanDuel:
Luka Doncic: +490
Joel Embiid: +600
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +650
Kevin Durant: +850
Nikola Jokic: +1100
Stephen Curry: +1300
Jayson Tatum: +1300
Ja Morant: +1800
Kawhi Leonard: 2100
LeBron James: +2600
More or less, all the usual suspects are accounted for. The order is out of whack, though, and we're here to say where and why the oddsmakers goofed up.
Luka Doncic: +490
1 of 5
Luka Doncic has finished fourth, sixth and fifth in MVP voting over the last three seasons, so there's no doubt he belongs among the absolute likeliest winners. That said, Doncic has generally fallen short of expectations when it comes to this particular award. He had the best odds to win the 2021-22 MVP at this time last season, just as he did the year before.
After coming close a few times, Doncic is better positioned than ever to break through.
One key factor: He'll be without his top running mate, as Jalen Brunson ditched the Dallas Mavericks for a four-year, $104 million contract with the New York Knicks. While it's possible Brunson's departure will hurt the Mavs' record and thereby diminish Doncic's shot at his first MVP, it seems more likely that Dallas' 23-year-old superstar will actually benefit from having less help around him. We saw Nikola Jokic walk that exact path to a second straight MVP last season, racking up gaudy numbers for a Denver Nuggets squad playing without its second and third options, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.
Doncic can do the same thing as long as he holds up physically under a heavier playmaking load than he faced with Brunson on the roster. Conditioning has long been an issue for the three-time All-NBA guard, but Doncic acknowledged his fitness wasn't where it needed to be last season and appears to be taking his offseason work more seriously than in years past.
If this is the summer Doncic finally devotes his full attention to being in prime shape, he could hit a new level.
That'd be a sight to see, considering he put up 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds and 8.7 assists on a career-best 35.3 percent shooting from deep last season—all while admitting partway through that he wasn't as fit as he needed to be. It wouldn't take much improvement for Doncic to average a 30-point triple-double while carrying Dallas to 50-plus wins.
The criteria for MVP have always included some imprecise combination of team success and individual statistical brilliance. Jokic proved last year that an exceptional showing in the latter department can outweigh a less impressive one in the former. His Nuggets finished sixth in the West, just as Russell Westbrook's Oklahoma City Thunder did in 2016-17 when he won his MVP award.
This is about more than Doncic simply improving with age, which would be a pretty good argument for him deserving the best odds on its own. With a weakened supporting cast and a renewed focus on the one area that has held him back, Doncic is primed to produce the best season of his career.
Verdict: Buy Luka as odds-on favorite.
Joel Embiid: +600 and Nikola Jokic: +1100
2 of 5
We're taking these two big men together because their MVP cases are most interesting to discuss in comparison with one another.
Jokic won the award in 2021 and 2022, with Embiid coming in second both times. Knowing only that, it's difficult to understand why Embiid would be so heavily favored over Jokic heading into 2022-23.
The Philadelphia 76ers loaded up on three-and-D support by adding PJ Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and De'Anthony Melton, moves designed to raise the team's postseason ceiling. They'll likely also have the effect of improving Philly's regular-season record, which helps Embiid's case. If James Harden is in shape and motivated after signing a one-plus-one deal, Philadelphia could easily finish with the best record in the East. Then again, we just argued that Doncic losing his most reliable teammate was a positive for his chances, so there's no guarantee Embiid will benefit from extra help and a better record in the MVP race.
Jokic, too, is getting reinforcements. Murray and Porter should be back at full strength, which might cut into his scoring totals but could also up his assists and help the Nuggets produce more wins than last year. The smartest approach might be to consider the upgrades to both Embiid's and Jokic's supporting casts a wash.
If we let those cancel out, it becomes even harder to understand why Embiid has better odds than Jokic. The health concern alone should flip the order.
Embiid's annual spate of freak injuries, soreness and time on the shelf is among the most reliable trends in the league. He has never played more than the 68 games he logged last season, and he's accumulated a total of 170 over the last three years. Jokic's durability is on another level. He's never played fewer than 73 contests in an 82-game season and has totaled 219 games across the last three years.
It's an oversimplification, but Embiid is far less likely to meet the hazy playing-time requirements of an MVP. There's no firm standard for how many minutes or games are necessary, but it's impossible to view Embiid as being more likely than Jokic to meet it.
You hate to admit it, but this feels like a clear case of the odds pricing in voter fatigue. If Jokic deserves a third straight award, which he very well might, early indications are that he's not going to get it. At worst, Jokic and Embiid should have the same odds.
Verdict: Sell Embiid's +500 edge over Jokic.
Giannis Antetokounmpo: +650
3 of 5
If we concede Jokic won't get the fairest shake because of his two consecutive wins, Giannis Antetokounmpo, not Embiid, is the more deserving No. 2 candidate behind Doncic.
Even that might sell him short.
Antetokounmpo earned MVP honors in 2018-19 and 2019-20, and at 27, he's not exactly past his prime. The best defensive player (see: 2019-20 DPOY) of anyone in serious consideration for the upcoming season's MVP and, unofficially, the hardest worker of the bunch (see: biceps), Giannis would shock no one by collecting a third trophy.
The Milwaukee Bucks have won at least 62.0 percent of their games in each of the last three years and, while perhaps lacking some depth, seem unlikely to slip below that mark in 2022-23. Barring something totally unforeseen, Antetokounmpo's team will rack up enough victories to keep him in the mix. And from an individual standpoint, we shouldn't rule out this being the year he finally takes a leap as a three-point shooter. Were Giannis to add that last missing piece to his game, it could lead to a statistical explosion. We're talking about a player who hasn't ranked below third in total paint points since 2015-16 (when he was sixth), despite every defense packing the lane to prevent close-range access to the rim.
Imagine the damage Antetokounmpo could do if defenses were forced to honor him, even just a little, as a perimeter threat.
It's rare for a player to win back-to-back MVPs, fall from that pedestal and then regain it. But it's not unprecedented. LeBron James doubled up in 2009 and 2010 and then watched Derrick Rose sneak in to grab the 2011 trophy before taking back the hardware in 2012 and 2013. And Michael Jordan spread his five awards across a wide range of years, starting in 1988 and concluding in 1998.
Maybe it feels blasphemous to say that James and Jordan achieving something means Giannis can do it, too. But that's the company Antetokounmpo keeps, as he was the youngest player named to the NBA's Top 75 list. That's a set of achievements that warrants a GOAT-level class of peers.
Two players have better MVP odds than Antetokounmpo. That seems like at least one too many. Leaving Doncic in the top spot makes sense, but Giannis deserves to rank ahead of Embiid.
Verdict: Giannis should be top-two. Sell anyone aside from Luka being favored over Antetokounmpo.
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Kevin Durant: +850
4 of 5
Kevin Durant is an all-time great who would have been a surefire Hall of Famer if his career had ended three or four years ago. It's important to note that fact before we dive into how ridiculous it is that he's currently in possession of the fourth-best MVP odds.
The KD-related unknowns are staggering, and all of them should give bettors pause.
Following a trade demand that the Brooklyn Nets don't seem close to meeting, Durant's destination is a giant question mark. Though his ability to dominate on or off the ball makes him among the most plug-and-play superstars we've ever seen, the team he winds up playing for has to matter. Maybe these odds reflect confidence KD will land with the Phoenix Suns, who'd theoretically contend for the league's best record as long as they don't give up too much of their core to bring Durant aboard. But it's far too early to assume we know where and with whom Durant will play.
Independent of that, KD is heading into his age-34 season and has a grand total of 90 games played over the last three years. Sure, he lost all of 2019-20 to a torn Achilles, but that doesn't exactly cut against the argument that his durability is an issue. Given his age, and with a catastrophic injury like that in the rearview, Durant is a lock to get plenty of pre-programmed rest days built into his season. Even with the Nets doing what they could to manage his health, Durant only played 55 games last year while missing time because of shoulder, ankle and knee issues. In 2020-21, Durant saw action in just 35 contests because of hamstring and thigh injuries.
Price in the possibility of boring, old age-related decline, and it's even harder to understand why Durant checks in this high on the list.
We'll almost certainly hear Durant mentioned in MVP conversations next year, but that will probably be before his first stay on the shelf. If his name resurfaces, it'll likely be accompanied by some version of the same refrain we've heard in most recent seasons. You know, if KD had only played enough games, he might actually be the favorite!
There's an old axiom about what decline looks like in great players. Superstars don't suddenly turn into stiffs. What happens instead is that they play like the prime versions of themselves less often, peppering in substandard performances with flashes of their old brilliance. Durant hasn't exactly followed that trajectory, as he tends to look a lot like the guy who won the 2014 MVP when he takes the floor. For him, though, consistency is still the issue. It just takes the form of games missed because of injury rather than one or two off nights every week.
Verdict: Sell KD's top-four odds.
Stephen Curry: +1300 and Jayson Tatum: +1300
5 of 5
Like Jokic and Embiid, Stephen Curry and Jayson Tatum make sense to consider as a package deal. They share the same plus-1300 odds and are ripe for further comparison after leading their teams to a Finals clash that Curry's Golden State Warriors ultimately won.
Curry has the superior career resume and graded out ahead of Tatum last year in Box Plus/Minus and Dunks and Threes' Estimated Plus/Minus. Paradoxically, that's where the case for Tatum deserving to rank ahead of Curry actually starts. Despite Curry's advantage in a couple of catch-all metrics, Tatum still topped him in MVP voting last season (sixth versus eighth). The extra 500 minutes Tatum played were a significant factor in his edge, as was some possible voter fatigue toward Curry. The two-time winner is probably a victim of his own past greatness; Steph can have a brilliant season, as he did last year, and still suffer in the estimation of voters for failing to reach the unfathomably high level he did as the unanimous MVP in 2015-16.
There's also the decade in age difference and Tatum's steady year-over-year improvement to consider. Plus, with the Celtics falling short against Curry's Warriors in the Finals after taking a 2-1 series lead, we shouldn't rule out a highly motivated revenge-tour season for Tatum and a reloaded Boston roster.
If Tatum finished ahead of Curry in MVP voting last year, and if the Boston superstar seems likely to produce his best season yet, there's not much logic in these two owning identical plus-1300 odds. And that's to say nothing of the candidacy-dampening potential of the Warriors holding Curry out of more games than ever after a hugely taxing championship run. Golden State just won a ring as the third seed, so it won't prioritize the regular season in its quest to repeat, and it definitely will err on the side of caution when it comes to load management for its veteran stars.
Tatum and Curry were close in value last year, but they'll diverge in 2022-23. Tatum's career trajectory is angling up, and Curry will spend significant time on injury-preventing cruise control. The Celtics' young star should have better odds than the Dubs' icon.
Verdict: Sell Curry as a favorite over Tatum.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through 2021-22 season. Salary info via Spotrac.
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