Ranking the NBA's Best Superstar Duos Right Now
The only thing we know for sure about great NBA duos is that they're basically a prerequisite to contending for a title.
But how do you go about measuring which tandem tops all the others? The best player pairings depend on chemistry, team schemes, positional balance, the support around them and, of course, raw talent. It's not that hard to come up with a short list of obvious names, but all the variables make comparison tricky.
That's why we're leaning on the numbers—one number in particular: Taylor Snarr's Estimated Plus-Minus, which is available via his site, Dunks and Threes. Every catch-all metric has its flaws, but EPM seems to be the best at eliminating the variables that otherwise complicate a comparison like this.
So we'll consult the list of 2021-22's top EPM performers, add up the combined total of the top two teammates and rank accordingly. If Player X is a plus-5.0 and Player Y is a plus-4.5, their combined score will be plus-9.5. Easy enough, right?
Because we're interested in the best pairings right now, we'll have to fudge things a little when it comes to players who missed last year because of injury. EPM isn't a volume stat, which helps. But in a couple of isolated cases, we'll use 2020-21 EPM as a fill-in.
Trusting the numbers eliminates bias, but it also opens up the floor to debate, usually because stats don't always align with the eye test. But really, what's the point of putting together rankings if you're not going to invite some argument?
Honorable Mention
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Stephen Curry (+7.2) and Draymond Green (+3.3), Golden State Warriors (+10.5 combined)
The Dubs' duo was the very last cut on the list, as their plus-10.5 fell less than a single point short of the No. 5 combo. Had we disqualified entrants that missed last season, Golden State's four-time champion teammates would have cracked the top five.
For whatever it's worth, they're easily No. 1 in the chemistry and mind-meld categories. No set of teammates plays better off one another's strengths, and none better compensate for one another's weaknesses.
The argument against including Curry and Green is all about balance. The numbers say Curry is doing the heavy lifting, and that's not wrong. Anyone who watched the Warriors' latest title run saw Steph take total control of multiple series while Green's effectiveness waxed and waned. That said, most of these pairings will have one teammate outperforming the other, and there's now a decade of evidence suggesting Curry and Green are tougher to beat than anyone.
Rudy Gobert (+5.1) and Karl-Anthony Towns (+4.6), Minnesota Timberwolves (+9.7 combined)
Well that's fun! We've got a new and untested set of twin towers nearly making it into the top five. In terms of novelty (sorry for the spoilers), Gobert and Towns are the only entry here involving two centers. Don't confuse that positional overlap for skill duplication. These two are as different as like-sized players get, and that's part of the appeal.
Gobert is a defense unto himself, a rim-protecting force whose presence compensates for the shortcomings of his other four teammates and assures a top-10 ranking on D regardless of the supporting personnel involved. What better partner for one of the great offensive big men of all time in KAT?
We're only talking in theory here, but Gobert seems like exactly the type of complement Towns needs, and vice versa. We'll see how things look in October, but last year's EPM says Minnesota should expect something great.
LeBron James (+6.1) and Anthony Davis (+3.4), Los Angeles Lakers (+9.5 combined)
This is a surprising result after Davis struggled through yet another injury-hit campaign, logging only 40 games after seeing action in just 36 the year before. Framed another way, that's an argument the eye-test crowd could credibly use in the case for LeBron and AD to rank higher.
In a down year, Davis put up 23.2 points, 9.9 rebounds, 3.1 assists and 2.3 blocks per game on 53.2 percent shooting from the field. At 29 and suddenly seeming like a player with something to prove, AD could make this ranking look ridiculous.
As for James, well, he's invincible. His plus-6.1 EPM was the sixth-best in the league last year, and he averaged 30.3 points per game with virtually no help. He, too, could nudge his numbers up in his upcoming age-38 season. If we were talking about anyone else, that'd be a laughable thought. But the last 19 years suggest the only thing laughable is projecting a fall from superstar status for the four-time MVP.
Missing the cut: Jayson Tatum and Robert Williams (plus-9.5), Devin Booker and Chris Paul (plus-9.3), Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen (plus-8.8), Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (plus-8.6), Trae Young and Dejounte Murray (plus-8.6), Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo (plus-8.4)
5. Kawhi Leonard and Paul George: Plus-11.3
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Remember these guys?
It's been over a year since we saw Kawhi Leonard (plus-6.9 in 2020-21) and Paul George (plus-4.4) share the floor, but slotting them in the top five still feels right. Wings are king in the NBA, and the Los Angeles Clippers have two of the best.
If anything, this position might undersell just how potent George and Leonard can be together. We used 2020-21 for Leonard here because he missed all of last year with a torn ACL—an injury which, by the way, is no longer a surefire career-altering catastrophe. Had we also used George's plus-5.0 figure from 2020-21, when he last played with Kawhi, these two would have ranked one spot higher with a combined total of plus-11.9. The idea that the best pairings elevate one another holds up anecdotally, and in this case it also has statistical support.
When Leonard played with George two seasons ago, he was more accurate from the field and the three-point line than he was when on the floor alone. His assists per 100 possessions were higher, and his turnovers were lower. George also shot it better from the field and from deep, and his assist-turnover splits, like Leonard's, were superior when taking the court with his superstar teammate. That symbiosis unsurprisingly produced a ridiculous plus-18.1 net rating in their shared minutes.
When Leonard went solo, the Clips posted a plus-4.4. George's minutes without Leonard resulted in a plus-3.3.
That's a lot of numbers with decimal points to make what should be a clear and intuitive argument. When healthy—and let's hope that'll be the case this coming season—Leonard and George are as dangerous as two-man units get.
4. Joel Embiid and James Harden: Plus-11.7
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The sample is small here, and Joel Embiid (plus-7.9) is carrying a far heavier load than James Harden (plus-3.8), but the results are tough to deny. That's largely because Harden faded in the 2022 postseason, adding to a troubling trend of big-game disappearances.
The numbers here don't care about that, and it's fair to argue that's one of the main problems with letting stats control these rankings. But stats also capture how Harden and Embiid were the Philadelphia 76ers' most effective high-volume two-man combo—even in a postseason that most will remember for Harden playing conspicuously poorly. The Sixers produced a plus-5.4 net rating with Embiid and Harden on the court in the 2022 postseason, the team's best figure among duos who saw at least 300 minutes of court time. For a reference point, the champion Warriors' plus-4.9 net rating wound up the best of all playoff teams.
You heard it here first: Harden and Embiid are better than the Warriors. Redirect the championship rings and banners to Philly!
Obviously, the 76ers' superstars have more to prove in the playoffs than just about anyone else we'll cover. But the idea that they can't succeed at the highest level may be a little overblown. Not that those who've given up on Harden's game or Embiid's ability to stay upright for an entire postseason will care, but those two also completely dominated during their short time together during the regular season, running up an obscene plus-15.9 net rating that ranked second in the league among pairings that logged at least 600 minutes together.
It also doesn't hurt their case that Harden and Embiid were the most dominant pick-and-roll combo in the league last year. There's nothing abstract about how well they work in direct cooperation with one another.
3. Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving: Plus-12.2
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Kevin Durant (plus-6.4) and Kyrie Irving (plus-5.8): Here for a good time, but not a long time.
Unfortunately, even the good times were few and far between for KD and Kyrie, who only managed to play 44 games together over three seasons with the Brooklyn Nets. They won just a single playoff series in that span.
So, why are Irving and Durant here, especially in light of the very strong possibility that they won't be teammates in Brooklyn much longer?
Talent. Pure talent. Talent that, according to the numbers last season, which are admittedly based on a tiny sample, produced a higher combined EPM than all but two other duos. So if we're willing to consider Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, who didn't play together at all this past year, we can't leave Irving and Durant out—not after they racked up a plus-13.1 net rating in the 17 games they played together.
The problems with this pair were never on the floor. The Brooklyn experiment flopped because of personalities, vaccination stances and injuries. Nothing we saw from either of them suggested skill decline is imminent, and neither is dealing with health issues that compromise their availability on Day 1 of the 2022-23 season. If by some bizarre and unlikely twist of fate Irving and Durant suit up for the Nets (or some other team), they'll still rightfully deserve consideration as one of the very best one-two punches around.
In the much more likely scenario that sees them split, this can stand as a sendoff to Durant, Irving and what might have been.
2. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray: Plus-12.6
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Jamal Murray hasn't played a game in 15 months, but signs point to him regaining his pre-injury form upon his return for the 2022-23 season.
When Murray comes back, he'll rejoin twice-crowned MVP Nikola Jokic as the two-man leading edge of a likely contender.
Jokic (plus-9.3) topped everyone in EPM this past season, falling 1.2 points short of the combined figure compiled by Stephen Curry and Draymond Green and exceeding the total of Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown (plus-8.6) all by himself. Murray (plus-3.3 in 2020-21) will clearly carry a lighter load than his megastar teammate, but the 25-year-old guard is no slouch. In his last healthy season, he was one of nine players to average at least 20.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists while hitting over 40.0 percent of his threes.
If Murray hasn't quite earned the superstar designation yet, don't be surprised when he does so this season.
Murray also deserves bonus points for defending Jokic from detractors, telling Adam Caparell of Complex Sports: "How much more do you want him [to do]? He has to basically go up and dunk between his legs for you guys to be happy. He does everything that a winning team and a championship team needs and it's self-explanatory. He's the Most Valuable Player every time he steps on the court."
Two MVPs and the richest contract in NBA history should render Jokic immune from criticism, but Murray's comments still speak to the strength of their partnership.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday: Plus-12.6
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Technically, Giannis Antetokounmpo (plus-7.3) and Jrue Holiday (plus-5.3) tied Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray at a combined plus-12.6 EPM. But several factors help easily break the tie in favor of the Milwaukee Bucks' duo.
Most importantly, we've seen Antetokounmpo and Holiday win a championship together, something Jokic and Murray have yet to accomplish. Nothing validates a partnership like hoisting a trophy at the end of a successful title run.
Beyond that, we don't have to pull from Holiday's 2020-21 EPM to get our combined figure like we did with Murray. There's no stress in hoping Holiday can return to form; he's coming off arguably the best season of his distinguished career, complete with personal bests in true shooting percentage, win shares and value over replacement player (VORP).
Another point in favor of Giannis and Jrue: equitable distribution of credit. Obviously, Antetokounmpo is the first option and transcendent star, but Holiday's plus-5.3 EPM is relatively close to his teammate's plus-7.3. (Khris Middleton, a player some might have considered Antetokounmpo's superior teammate, finished 2021-22 at plus-2.3.) The gap is narrower here than it is with Jokic and Murray, and the only top-five tandem with closer individual scores is Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving.
With all due respect to Kawhi Leonard and Paul George, Antetokounmpo and Holiday are also the best defensive duo here. The former has a DPOY trophy and has been on the All-Defensive first team every year since 2018-19, while the latter has over 1,200 career steals and four All-Defensive nods (two firsts, two seconds) in the last five years. To hear his peers tell it, Holiday is still underrated, despite those accolades.
"He's the best defender in the league," Andre Iguodala told The Athletic's Eric Nehm. "One of the best defenders I've ever seen, and the best defender of his time."
Watching Holiday make game-saving plays year after year, it's hard to argue with his supporters.
Antetokounmpo and Holiday take the crown—at least by the measure we've chosen for this exercise. Considering their track record of team success, individual accomplishment and EPM dominance together, it's easy to accept them as the top duo in the league.
