5 NHL Free Agents Who Will Be Overvalued This Offseason
The NHL's annual free-agent period begins at noon ET on Wednesday, July 13. With the salary cap for 2022-23 rising by just $1 million to $82.5 million, 20 of the 32 clubs have less than $20 million to invest in acquiring talent through free agency or trades. Nevertheless, this year's crop of unrestricted free agents will hope to land lucrative new contracts.
Teams are prohibited from speaking with eligible UFAs until the market opens, so we expect a frenzy of signings on the first day as general managers attempt to outbid each other for the best talent. That could lead to several players being overvalued and overpaid by the time the dust settles.
Look no further for an example than the Seattle Kraken signing Philipp Grubauer to a six-year, $35.4 million contract last summer. It was assumed he'd benefit with a solid defense corps in front of him. Instead, the 30-year-old netminder struggled with his new team throughout last season.
Another example was the Buffalo Sabres signing Taylor Hall to a one-year, $8 million contract. Expected to pair up with then-Sabres captain Jack Eichel to provide additional punch to their offense, Hall managed just 19 points in 37 games before being shuffled off to the Boston Bruins at the 2021 trade deadline.
Here's our take on five of this summer's pending NHL unrestricted free agents who could end up getting paid more than their actual worth. Feel free to weigh in with your thoughts on this topic in the comments section below.
Jack Campbell, Toronto Maple Leafs
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Inconsistency plagued Jack Campbell's performance in 2021-22 with the Toronto Maple Leafs. In his first full season as a starting goaltender, the 30-year-old won 17 of his first 25 games with four shutouts and a .939 save percentage. However, his save percentage plummeted to .888 in the second half despite winning 14 of 24 games.
A rib injury that hampered Campbell through February would eventually sideline him for 10 games. He was unable to regain his solid first-half form upon his return. When the Leafs were eliminated from the opening round of the playoffs by the Tampa Bay Lightning in seven games, his save percentage in three of their four losses was .886 or worse.
Completing a two-year contract with an annual average value of $1.65 million, Campbell could be heading to the open market. On June 21, the Toronto Sun's Terry Koshan reported the Leafs lack the $5 million per season right now that Campbell could command as a free agent.
Campbell's uneven performance and his limited experience as a starter are red flags. However, the lack of elite goalies available in this summer's free-agent market could work in his favor. A general manager desperate for an upgrade between the pipes could offer up a five- or six-year contract worth between $5.5 million and $6 million annually.
Nazem Kadri, Colorado Avalanche
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Enjoying a career-best 87 points during the regular season, Nazem Kadri also enjoyed a solid postseason performance with 15 points in 16 games with the Stanley Cup champion Colorado Avalanche. Completing a six-year contract with an annual cap hit of $4.5 million, the 31-year-old center could cash in big as an unrestricted free agent on July 13.
Kadri will attract plenty of suitors drawn to his offensive skills and agitating style of play. It could put him in line for a six- or seven-year contract worth between $7 million and $8 million annually. With $25.7 million in cap space for next season and free agents such as Darcy Kuemper, Valeri Nichushkin, Josh Manson and Artturi Lehkonen to re-sign or replace, the Avalanche won't be able to match that type of bid.
However, it remains to be seen if Kadri can replicate his impressive 2021-22 performance with another club. Skating with a deep Avalanche roster contributed to the significant increase this season over his previous career best of 61 points with the 2016-17 Toronto Maple Leafs. He could struggle to exceed 60 points on a lesser club.
Kadri's age and style of play should also be a warning against inking him to a long-term contract. He missed 11 regular-season games and four playoff contests because of injuries in 2021-22. A big-money deal could become increasingly risky, especially in the final half of the deal.
Evander Kane, Edmonton Oilers
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After missing the first half of the season and having his contract terminated by the San Jose Sharks for violating AHL COVID-19 protocols, Evander Kane signed a one-year, $2.1 million contract with the Edmonton Oilers on Jan. 27. The 30-year-old winger quickly made up for lost time, scoring 22 goals and 39 points in 43 regular-season games followed by 13 goals in 15 playoff contests.
Kane made a positive impression with his Oilers teammates, so much so that Sportsnet's Mark Spector reported on June 7 that they'd like to have him back. Two days later, however, he posted what appeared to be his farewell letter to the Oilers and their fans via social media.
The NHLPA has filed a grievance with the Sharks over Kane's contract termination. NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly said it could take until after July 13 before an arbitrator is available to hear the case. Kane and the Sharks could reach some sort of settlement before then. Still, there's a chance this could result in arbitration whereby the decision could go against him.
Kane benefited this season skating alongside superstar Connor McDavid. However, he also led the Sharks with 49 points in 56 games the previous season despite the well-documented investigations from the league. A general manager looking for a first-line left winger could be willing to take the same chance as the Oilers on a longer term for much more than what he made in Edmonton.
If an arbitrator rules against Kane, he could seek a five-year contract with an annual cap hit similar to the $7 million he earned with the Sharks. The risk, however, is he might not have the same success with a new club as he did in Edmonton. There's also no certainty that he's put behind him the personal things that forced the Sharks to cut ties.
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John Klingberg, Dallas Stars
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Having spent the past seven years earning an annual average value of $4.3 million, John Klingberg will look to cash in via the free-agent market. On May 17, Klingberg said he wanted to re-sign with the Stars. However, there's no indication of serious contract discussions since then.
On Oct. 16, Sportsnet's Jeff Marek reported Klingberg sought an eight-year extension with the Stars worth between $62 million and $66 million. That works out to an annual average value between $7.8 million and $8.3 million. He could still seek something within that range on the open market, though by signing with another club the longest term he'll get is seven years.
A skilled puck-moving defenseman, the 29-year-old Klingberg has reached 40 or more points six times in his eight NHL seasons with the Stars. However, he struggled at times this season and was moved up and down the lineup. He could be a risky signing on an expensive long-term contract if this season's struggles are an early indication that his performance could be on the decline.
On June 14, The Athletic's Saad Yousuf put the chances of Klingberg returning with the Dallas Stars at 35 percent. Given how few skilled blueliners are available in this summer's free-agent market, he could find a club willing to meet his expensive asking price.
Kris Letang, Pittsburgh Penguins
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A mainstay of the Pittsburgh Penguins defense corps, Kris Letang is completing an eight-year contract with an annual cap hit of $7.3 million. On June 13, The Athletic's Rob Rossi reported their priority was signing the 35-year-old defenseman to a new multiyear contract.
The cost, however, is going to be expensive. On June 28, Rossi's colleague, Josh Yohe, reported the Penguins still believe Letang can remain an elite defenseman. While they're offering a three-year deal, he is said to be asking for a five-year contract over $8 million annually and possibly as high as $9 million.
Letang is coming off a career-best 68-point performance, so a three-year contract seems like a reasonable length of time. Going as high as $8 million per season over that period is unusual for a player in his age group but could be worthwhile if he has a couple of quality seasons left. Spending up to $9 million over five years, however, would be an expensive gamble over the final three years of that deal.
If Letang can't get five years at between $8 million and $9 million annually from the Penguins he could try his luck in the free-agent market. Despite the risk of his skills eroding over a five-year contract, there could be a general manager impressed by his previous accomplishments willing to take the chance.
Salary-cap info via Cap Friendly. Additional info via Hockey Reference.
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