2011 Bowl Predictions: Why SEC Will Be Embarrassed in Bowl Season

The SEC might be considered the biggest powerhouse conference in all of sports, but as bowl season begins its swirl it will become clear that the top-heavy conference is not as deep as we originally thought.

What the SEC has done in football is more than impressive; to maintain that kind of dominance in such a competitive sport is no achievement to scoff at. For the SEC, however, the only knock may be that they need to perform better in bowl games to keep their legendary status in check.

Outside of the marque match (the BCS national championship) that features the two best teams in the SEC, the conference will be upstaged when they face other teams outside of the conference in postseason play. Many look at teams like Florida, Tennessee, Auburn and Arkansas as elite programs this season. The first argument that is listed when discussing those teams, however, is almost inevitably the conference that they play in.

Between now and the national championship, there are 21 bowl games to be played. Eight of them feature teams in the SEC, and one of them features the two best teams in the SEC against one another. With one of those teams guaranteed to lose, that’s a trophy that the SEC is unable to hoist at the end of the season. But that might not be the only reason why this conference will look weaker as the season comes to a close.

So long as the SEC continues to dominate in the regular season and in the postseason (they have won six consecutive national championships), their scrutiny will be strong.

Last season, the SEC was less than .500 in postseason play, as they were 4-5 in bowl season (with losses from Tennessee, Georgia, South Carolina, Kentucky and Arkansas).

This season, many of those same trends will continue.

Miss. St. vs. Wake Forest (Franklin American Mortgage Music City, Dec. 30th)

Tonight, Mississippi State will play Wake Forest in a game that features two underperforming teams that are both 6-6.

At .500, Mississippi State was still an unimpressive team for the majority of this season. Their conference record of 2-6 was hardly a nod at the talent of the SEC, and definitively a salute to how poorly this team has performed throughout the course of this season.

Mississippi State was hardly bowl eligible at the season’s end, and feature one of the worst passing games in all of college sports (200.2 yards per game, 91^st overall). Offensive production is not something Miss. State boasts about, as their measly 25.5 PPG is hardly something to write home for.

In tonight’s game, I would say that Mississippi State is the favorite. But on that same note, I would not be entirely surprised to see a relatively convincing Wake Forest victory.

Auburn vs. Virginia (Chick-Fil-A, Dec. 31st)

So Auburn goes from winning the national championships on the heels of two dominant players (Cam Newton, Nick Fairley), and the next year they enter the Chick-Fil-A Bowl?

Even if Auburn ends up winning the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, does it even matter? Their falloff this season has been remarkable. This year, Auburn went from an undefeated season to going 7-5. Their passing game, with the absence of Cam Newton, is only the 106^th overall passing production in CFB.

I don’t know what the answer is for Auburn, but it’s definitely not Barrett Trotter hoisting up the trophy to the Chick-Fil-A Bowl.

Georgia vs. Michigan State (Outback, Jan. 2nd)

There’s certainly no knock against Georgia in this game, but what many forget is how well Michigan State played against a very good Wisconsin team.

Even with their loss to Mich. State, Wisconsin still ended up as a top ten team. Much of that has to do with the fact that Michigan State is indeed an above average team as well.

Georgia is good, but they’re very evenly matched with the Spartans. Both of these teams have a 10-3 record, both teams are 7-1 in their conference, and both teams just missed out on a more impressive bowl.

Michigan State’s defense, however, is what separates the two teams. Allowing only 17.5 points per game, the Spartan defense is the 9^th best in college football.

With a solid passing game (247.5 yards per game), look for a Michigan State victory when the 17^th ranked team in the country faces the 16^th ranked team.

South Carolina vs. Nebraska (Capital One, Jan. 2nd)

Much like the Georgia vs. Michigan State game, I think that South Carolina is a very good football program.

This season, however, I just happen to think that Nebraska is better.

The Gamecocks suffered an awful injury to their running back Marcus Lattimore earlier this season, and that setback pushed them from being a national championship contender to an also-ran in the SEC. Since then, freshman running back Brandon Wilds has done his job—he has replaced Lattimore—but nothing incredibly impressive.

Lattimore, who had ten touchdowns in his seven games this season, is not easy to replace. Since his injury, Wilds has only recorded three rushing touchdowns.

Nebraska, however, has compiled 24 rushing touchdowns between their starting quarterback (Martinez) and running back (Burkhead) alone.

The Capital One Bowl is still impressive, and both Nebraska and S. Carolina feature impressive running games and less than impressive passing games.

Without the leadership of Lattimore, South Carolina is a thinner football team. If Shaw is unable to open up the passing game to Jeffery early, Nebraska should come away with this one.

Florida vs. Ohio State (Gator, Jan. 2nd)

What’s more embarrassing than Urban Meyer leaving your job for retirement, only to come back and announce that next season he will be coaching the team that you will be facing in the Gator Bowl?

I think very little of Florida. For such an appealing school to play football, a 6-6 record is virtually inexcusable.

This game, which takes place in Florida, should give an immediate advantage to the Gators. The Bowl, after all, is named after their mascot. But the Gators are nothing special this season.

After winning their first four games of the season, Florida lost five of their next six games in a row.

The season ended with a decisive loss to Florida State, 21-7.

If Tim Tebow could ever die, he would be rolling over in his grave reading that box score.

This game could be the icing on the cake for an embarrassing season for an embarrassing Florida football team.

Arkansas vs. Kansas State (Cotton, Jan. 6th)

Arkansas finished this season 10-2, which in the SEC, is very good.

Junior Tyler Wilson is among the best quarterbacks in college football, and he has been playing very well all season.

The cool thing about bowl season, however, is that you also face other good teams. Kansas State, also at 10-2, is an example of one of those good teams. They were able to stay close against #3 Oklahoma St., narrowly losing a close 52-45 showdown in the final minutes of the game.

Kansas State is also one of the few teams to beat the Heisman Trophy Winner Robert Griffin, as well as taking down #23 Texas.

Kansas St. is a good offensive team (33.1 PPG), and while I think that Arkansas is the better team, Kansas State matches up decently well.

If they’re able to pick up an early lead, this could have the makings for an upset.

Alabama vs. LSU (AllState, Jan. 9th)

As I mentioned earlier today, an Alabama loss would be horrific for Saban and Alabama recruiting.

To lose to the same in-conference team twice in one season, one of the losses coming in the championship game, would be devastating for the Crimson Tide.

At this point, LSU is considered to be a heavy favorite, stopping everything (including Alabama) that has come in its way.

70% of all betting action has been put on LSU, and few expect Alabama to pull off the victory.

On the flip side, if Alabama does beat LSU, then the loss would be humiliating for everyone involved.

LSU would have an undefeated season spoiled by an in-conference rival, Alabama would get doubters from across the country saying that all they did was split the season with LSU, and college football fans everywhere would be upset that they had to watch another rematch.

Embarrassing situations for all. 

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