NFL Playoff Picture: Breaking Down Race for Top Seed in AFC

Raise your hand if you had the Indianapolis Colts beating the Houston Texans on Thursday night.

[Sees hands].

Come on, people. Be honest.

[Sees no hands].

Okay, that's more like it.

I didn't see that coming either, but what's done is done. As a result, the Colts have put the "Suck for Luck" race in disarray and the Texans have all but lost a chance at earning the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

But believe it or not, the Texans do still have a shot at earning the AFC's top seed. Let's go ahead and break it down.

How the Texans Can Earn the No. 1 Seed

It kinda goes without saying, but the Texans need to win their regular season finale against the Tennessee Titans. That would allow them to finish with a record of 11-5, which could be good enough to give them the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs, which of course comes with a first-round bye and home-field advantage.

The trouble is that the Texans need everyone else in the hunt to finish 11-5 too. The New England Patriots would have to lose both of their last two games, and the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers would have to lose one or both of their final two games.

In the event that the Texans, Patriots, Ravens and Steelers all finish 11-5, the Texans would get the edge because of their win percentage in conference games. It's also worth noting that one of the AFC North teams would be a wild-card entry, taking them out of the race for the AFC's top seed.

So you see, it's actually pretty simple.

How Patriots Can Earn the No. 1 Seed

The Patriots can actually earn the No. 1 seed this week. All they need to do is beat the Miami Dolphins, and hope that the Ravens lose to the Cleveland Browns and the Steelers lose to the St. Louis Rams.

If that doesn't work, the Patriots only need to beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 17 to clinch the No. 1 seed.

If the Patriots lose either one of their final two games, they stand to lose the No. 1 seed to the Ravens due to a strength of victory tiebreaker if both teams finish 12-4. If the Steelers finish 12-4 and win the AFC North, they'll have the edge over the Patriots because they beat them earlier this season.

If the Patriots lose both of their final two games, they'll need the Texans, Ravens and Steelers to all finish 10-6. They probably shouldn't risk that.

How the Ravens Can Earn the No. 1 Seed

If the Ravens win their final two games, they'll be in good shape. They'll be 12-4, and they will hold a tiebreaker over the Patriots because of the aforementioned strength of victory deal.

If the Ravens finish 11-5, they'll need the Patriots and Steelers to also finish 11-5, and they'll need the Texans to finish 10-6. 

If the Ravens lose both of their last two games to finish 10-6, the best they can hope for is the No. 3 seed. 

Make no mistake, earning the No. 1 seed is in Baltimore's interest. We're talking about a team that is a perfect 7-0 at home, so having home-field advantage would come in handy for them.

How the Steelers Can Earn the No. 1 Seed

First and foremost, I'll mention that the Steelers absolutely have to finish with a better record than the Ravens to have a shot at the No. 1 seed. They're not going to get it unless they win the AFC North, and the Ravens beat the twice this season.

So naturally, the key will be for the Ravens to lose at least one game. If they do and the Steelers win both of theirs, they'll get the No. 1 seed if the Patriots drop a game.

If the Steelers drop a game, they'll need the Ravens to drop both of their final two games, and they'll also need the Patriots and Texans to finish winless as well.

If the Steelers drop both of their last two games, they're looking at a wild-card berth.