NFL Week 16 Picks: Gauging the Likelihood of Every Upset Scenario

With the season winding down, upsets become more likely.

Some teams that already have their postseason berths locked down choose to begin resting their starters, making it a bit easier for the underdogs to nab a win in games they wouldn't have much of a chance in earlier in the season.

But sometimes, even with all starters active and on the field, a great team falls to their supposedly lesser opponent.

In the following slides, I examine the possibility of the underdogs pulling upset victories in five of Week 16's games.

Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

The Baltimore Ravens have yet to lose at home, and though they've got the AFC North's top spot seemingly locked down, they're still angling for the No. 1 seed in the conference and home-field advantage in the playoffs.

Therefore, there's little chance that Baltimore will be resting their starters this week and will instead be on the field ready to defeat the Cleveland Browns for the second time this season.

The Browns are 0-4 in their division, as the AFC North is easily one of the most difficult divisions in the league and Cleveland is yet again struggling to earn wins in the regular season.

Though Baltimore's offense is still shaky when it relies more on quarterback Joe Flacco, at worst it is still more than capable of handing the Browns their 11th loss of the season.

There's little chance that even the Browns' best efforts this week will best the Ravens. Baltimore is simply a better team, in almost every way.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Against the Tom Brady-Bill Belichick New England Patriots, the Miami Dolphins haven't had much success. They're 7-14 since 2001, no matter if the game is played at home or away.

While every year and every game is different, all signs point to the powerhouse Patriots winning this week.

The Dolphins have managed to put together a respectable season for themselves despite starting the year 0-7. After a series of hiccups—and losses in close games—the team has gelled on offense and been strong enough on defense to win five of their last seven games.

They're not a bad team, certainly, but the Patriots are one of the best in the NFL. Quarterback Tom Brady is one of three passers on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season passing yardage record. He's got a plethora of high-level targets to throw to.

And though their defense is just as questionable as it's been all season, Brady and the offense's ability to put up a number of scores and build a big lead has served the team just fine, with New England sitting atop the AFC with just two games left in the regular season.

Miami might be able to score a few touchdowns this week, but it won't be enough to best New England on Saturday. Though the Patriots could ostensibly find themselves caught in a trap, I don't see a team as intelligent and disciplined falling prey to that conceit this week.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans

The Houston Texans showed exactly why they are vulnerable in Week 15, falling to the Panthers in a surprising upset after Carolina's defense stopped Houston's run game and forced rookie quarterback T.J. Yates to make plays with his arm.

Forcing Yates into this situation exposes him to mistakes, and those mistakes—two interceptions, as well as a lost fumble by running back Arian Foster—made all the difference last week.

Also, in Week 15, the Indianapolis Colts notched their first win of the season over the Tennessee Titans by employing the same strategy. They stopped the Titans' run game, forced quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to throw, nabbed two interceptions and recovered a Jared Cook fumble.

Tellingly, the Texans lost 28-13 and the Colts won 27-13. If the Colts can recreate this magic on Saturday, then they might be able to reel in their second win of the season, and over the AFC South-leading Texans at that.

Considering it took this long for the Colts to notch a win doesn't bode well for their chances to repeat this effort. But the stage has been set, considering the Colts earned their win by doing the very same thing that earned Houston a loss last week.

It's not likely for the Colts to win but the opportunity to do so is there. I'd say this contest presents the best chance for an underdog to defeat a favored team in Week 16.

St. Louis Rams at Pittsburgh Steelers

With Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger nursing a high ankle sprain that severely limited his mobility—and thus his team's chances to win—it's likely that Roethlisberger has played his last regular-season snap for 2011, especially with the playoffs on the horizon. 

That presents the visiting St. Louis Rams an opportunity to come to town and earn a road victory over one of the league's top teams. But it's not as easy as that.

The Rams are 2-12 right now and have been beaten handily by teams less impressive than a Steelers squad sans Roethlisberger.

They're giving up over 150 rushing yards per game, which means that whether it's Charlie Batch or Dennis Dixon under center for Pittsburgh this week, a steady dose of handing the ball off to running backs Rashard Mendenhall and Isaac Redman should be enough for the Steelers to win at home.

Don't forget about the Steelers' strong defense, either. They're more than capable of meting out serious punishment, and they're not about to ease up at this late stage in the season.

With Roethlisberger likely the only major Pittsburgh starter to sit, the Rams have little chance of upsetting the playoff-bound team at home.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

With the chances of the Green Bay Packers going 16-0 dashed last week in their loss to the Kansas City Chiefs and the No. 1 seed in the NFC nearly locked down, Green Bay is likely to rest their starters in their final two games.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and several of the team's top players probably won't take the field at all against the Detroit Lions in Week 17, but they should play for most of the first half of this week's contest against the Chicago Bears.

While this presents a better opportunity for the Bears to win—and a divisional win would be most welcome, considering Chicago still has a statistical shot at a wild-card playoff berth—Chicago may still struggle mightily depending on how well the Packers starters perform during the game. 

The Bears are in bad shape, that's no secret. After injuries decimated their offense, the team has found themselves on a four-game losing streak. Quarterback Caleb Hanie, under center for most of the collapse, will likely find himself benched this week in favor of the slightly less terrible Josh McCown.

Though that may help the team somewhat, they're going to need the Packers' starters to sit by or before halftime to have a chance at winning this game.