2012 NFL Mock Draft: Matt Barkley Would Be Wise to Follow Matt Kalil's Lead

If USC quarterback Matt Barkley knows what's good for him, he'll forgo his senior season and declare for the 2012 NFL draft.

And not just because he'd be selected in the top 10, or perhaps even in the top five, though, even that would be reason enough.

From a purely football perspective, Barkley would only return to school if he thought:

1) that he could win the Heisman Trophy and/or

2) that the Trojans had an excellent chance to win the BCS National Championship.

The odds of Barkley and the Trojans achieving those goals next season have taken a serious blow in recent days, with star juniors Matt Kalil and Nick Perry opting to join seniors Armond Armstead, Chris Galippo, Martin Coleman and Marshall Jones in the NFL draft pool.

Kalil is projected to be the top prospect at offensive tackle in the draft and could go as high as No. 2 overall. Perry led the Pac-12 with 9.5 sacks but may have to wait until the later rounds to hear his name called considering just how deep the stock of pass-rushers is likely to be.

Either way, those two won't be going back to SC and neither should Barkley. The junior from Huntington Beach has been privileged to have a tackle of Kalil's caliber protecting his blind side. In fact, Kalil didn't give up a single sack this season as part of a stellar offensive line that was the best in the FBS with just eight sacks allowed.

Hence, Barkley won't be able to sit back and deliver the ball comfortably from the pocket like he's become accustomed to if he does in fact decide to stay in school. Instead, he'd have to fend for himself while on the run and under pressure, which would ultimately hurt his numbers in the Heisman race, his team's chances in the national title chase and, most importantly, his draft stock.

What happens if Barkley struggles to perform when he's under duress? What happens if Barkley suffers an injury from such a beating? Will scouts like him as much then, enough to drop into mid-to-late first-round territory?

That's a risk that, frankly, Barkley shouldn't be willing to take. He wouldn't be returning to the No. 1 team in the country like Matt Leinart did in 2005, when he gave up the chance to be the first pick in the 2005 NFL draft to chase a second Heisman Trophy and help SC defend its BCS title (which was later vacated).

Unlike his fellow Mater Dei Monarch and USC Trojan, Barkley would be playing for a Lane Kiffin-coached team that might not even be the best in the Pac-12 with so much talent already lost from both sides of the ball.

At this point, the greater certainty is that Barkley, should he throw his helmet into the ring, would be either the second- or third-best quarterback in the draft, depending on how highly scouts value Baylor's Robert Griffin III, and would go early on the first day.

So unless Barkley would rather spend the next year of his life ballroom dancing and dodging oncoming tacklers, he'd best bid farewell to the Cardinal and Gold and say hello to the pros.

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