Why Aaron Rodgers is Having the Greatest Season by a Quarterback in NFL History

We hear about it all of the time.

We hear about the Packers on their quest for immortality. We hear about Aaron Rodgers having an MVP season. We hear about the current 19-game win streak (including the postseason), which is the second-longest in NFL history.

The Packers are the best team in the NFL. There's no question about that. It remains to be seen whether this current Packers team is a dynasty in the making, although the chances of that look pretty good at the moment.

We know Rodgers is having a season for the ages. We know that Rodgers will likely win the MVP award in 2011.

The question is, where does this season rank amongst the greatest single seasons by quarterbacks of all time?

Yes, the season isn't over yet. Yes, there are three games left and anything can happen.

And yes, the postseason still has yet to arrive.

People may believe that it's way too early to discuss this subject. But this is football. Where would we be without speculation and debate?

Through 13 games of the regular season, Rodgers is on pace to break several major passing records.

Rodgers is completing 70 percent of his passes, which is less than a percent away from Drew Brees' mark set in 2009. He's also on pace to break Dan Marino's passing yardage record set over 25 years ago, which stands at 5,084 yards.

As it currently stands, Rodgers would break Peyton Manning's passer rating record set in 2004, with his 123.3 QB rating.

He is also on pace to at least challenge Tom Brady's passing touchdown record of 50 set in 2007.

Did I mention that his yards-per-attempt average of 9.42 would be the third-best in a single season since 1955?

The Packers are 13-0. Rodgers is statistically having possibly the greatest season of all time.

We can't predict the future. I don't know if the Packers will go 16-0, although if they don't rest their starters, I think it's a pretty sure bet that they go undefeated during the regular season.

I can't automatically come to the conclusion that the Packers will be this year's Super Bowl champions. Just look at the 2007 New England Patriots for prior reference.

However, based upon the 13-game sample of the Packers and Rodgers' season, I can come to this conclusion—Rodgers is having the greatest single season by a quarterback in NFL history.

Is it still a question of "Will he have the greatest single season by the time the 2011 season is over?"

Yes, of course. So many things can happen between Week 15 of the NFL season and the time the Super Bowl concludes in February.

Is there an argument for other quarterbacks in other single seasons, most recently 1999 Kurt Warner, 2004 Peyton Manning, 2007 Tom Brady and maybe even 2010 Tom Brady?

No doubt about it. That's the great thing about sports. There are rarely subjects about which you can't get into a debate.

However, when you look at the entire picture, it is hard to argue against Rodgers' season.

Let's go into quick detail why this season by Rodgers surpasses those four other seasons by those three quarterbacks.

He's On Track To Break Numerous Passing Records

I already covered just about all of the major passing statistics Rodgers will—or is on track to—break.

Outside of Warner's '99 season, all of the above seasons have come in the age of "no contact." What I mean by this is the rule change leading up the 2004 season that changed the way defensive backs can play wide receivers.

Before 2004, defensive backs could get somewhat rough and touch the receivers past five yards from the line of scrimmage. After Ty Law's infamous "shut-down" game of Marvin Harrison in the 2003 AFC Championship game, the NFL changed its rules, after lobbying from several quarterbacks, including Brady and Manning.

Over recent years—especially in the last three—the NFL has also banned certain hits on receivers and has made it nearly impossible to rough up a quarterback without receiving a flag or a fine.

All of these rule changes have contributed to the evolution of the NFL from a "ground attack" game to the "vertical passing" league that you see today.

Why did I cover a short history of the rule changes of the last several years?

Because it's fair game. Whereas Dan Marino's 1984 single season occurred in a completely different era of the NFL, in which vertical passing of Marino's magnitude was nearly non-existent, the single seasons experienced by Manning and Brady in recent years are easily comparable to Rodgers' 2011 season.

When it comes to the individual statistics themselves, Rodgers is simply having a better year than either Brady or Manning's record-breaking years.

He's Doing It with Less of a Supporting Cast

Yes, Rodgers has a very talented team around him. No player in the NFL can succeed or put up great "individual" statistics without the help of his teammates.

However, when comparing his supporting cast to those of Brady, Manning and Warner, Rodgers' team pales in comparison.

In 2004, Manning had three receivers go over 1,000 yards. He had Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley all contribute to his tremendous 2004 season.

Did I mention that he also had Edgerrin James, who was second-team All NFL and a Pro Bowler that year?

There is no question that Manning was the engine that made everything go, but the Colts ranked 11th in rushing yards per attempt, and James ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing yards.

What is the point?

That supporting cast far exceeds Rodgers' supporting cast of Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley and Ryan Grant/James Starks/John Kuhn/Brandon Saine.

The Packers rank in the bottom five in rushing yards and yards per attempt.

Outside of Greg Jennings and maybe—maybe—Jermichael Finley, nobody on the Packers is of the caliber of the Colts' supporting cast of players.

As far as Brady's 2007 season, he had Randy Moss, who broke the single-season touchdown record, Wes Welker, who established himself as the best possession receiver in the league, and a running game that ranked 13th in the NFL in rushing yards.

Did I mention that they had the No. 4 in defense in 2007?

Warner had Marshall Faulk, a future league MVP and the 1999 AP Offensive Player of the Year. He had Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, not to mention the fourth-best defense in the NFL.

The Packers' defense ranks 17th in the NFL. The only player on this list who could argue he had a worse defense was Manning in '04 with his 19th-ranked defense.

I am also ignoring the fact that Rodgers doesn't have a good offensive line. Is there even a single All-Pro or Pro Bowl nod amongst the five starting lineman: Newhouse, Smith, Wells, Lang and Bulaga?

Do you really want to compare those guys to Orlando Pace, Jeff Saturday, Matt Light and Logan Mankins?

Rodgers is doing just as much, if not more, with a lot less. A lot less in the trenches, a lot less defensively, a lot less in the running game and less in the receiving game.

The Team Record

Yes, it's a team accomplishment.

Let's be blunt, though. The Packers wouldn't be 13-0 and they wouldn't be anywhere close to that good without Rodgers. That is just safe to assume.

They have the 29th-best rushing attack, 17th-best defense and an offensive line that is by no means elite. Rodgers gets sacked a ton and prolongs a lot of passing plays with his ability to scramble.

The Packers are 13-0. The only team on that list that could say the same was the 2007 Patriots.

The Intangibles

This is an unheralded part of Rodgers' skill set, because it's not a recorded statistic.

But something that Rodgers excels at is the pre-snap read. There is nobody in the game better than Rodgers at reading a defense before the snap.

Case in point? Look at the Packers' first drive yesterday against Oakland. Rodgers did not accumulate a single stat and the drive shows one play, a 46-yard touchdown run by Ryan Grant.

Grant did his job. But Rodgers also did his.

On the first snap from around midfield, Rodgers used a hard snap count to draw the defense offsides. That gained the offense five yards and even enabled Rodgers to take a deep shot to Jennings down the seam, which did go incomplete (on many occasions this season, the same play has gone for a completion).

On the next play, the call was a designed pass play. Rodgers read the defensive alignment, yelled "kill, kill", which is a common audible to a run play, and Grant went on to score his first rushing touchdown in seemingly forever and have his first 10-plus-yard run in 68 touches.

A lot of that had to do with Rodgers' pre-snap read.

Were all of these other quarterbacks great at pre-snap reads? Of course. But Rodgers is definitely on the same level as Brady and Manning when it comes to pre-snap adjustments.

Conclusion      

When you factor in the statistics, the supporting cast, the team record, the intangibles and the skill sets, it's somewhat easy to come to the conclusion that Rodgers is having the greatest regular season by a quarterback (through 13 games) in NFL history.

Is it arguable? Of course. Those three other quarterbacks had some of the greatest seasons in NFL history, and one could certainly make the argument that they're better than Rodgers' 2011 season.

However, if you look at the entire picture, you will see that Rodgers' 2011 season is more than just an MVP season.

It might be the greatest of all time.