NFL Gambling: Why the Green Bay Packers May Be the Perfect Team to Bet Against

Central to the Rock Box Sports handicapping philosophy is the idea of exploiting the gap between perception and reality. This is why we like hype. We like it so much that we often capitalize it for effect. Like this: Hype.

Media "Hype". ESPN "Hype". Sports Illustrated "Hype". It’s a beautiful, beautiful thing for the savvy gambler on more than one level. First and foremost, Hype inflates public perception. And that, in turn, inflates point spreads. And then we take the points. And that inflates our bank accounts. That’s pretty much the way it works around here when all goes well.

But hold on, I’m getting ahead of myself just a bit. There’s a secondary quality to Hype as well. Hype inflates egos. It creates distractions. It diverts focus. The Greeks had it right, my friends. Hubris rankles the Gods. Pride comes before the fall. And Hype comes before the Pride.

And while we’re at it, let's throw in the fact that Hype motivates the opposition. Have you ever seen Ray Lewis on the sidelines before a game against Tom Brady and the Patriots? If you didn’t know any better, you might get the sense that he feels a touch of animosity. That’s because he doesn’t like the Hype. He feels disrespected. Overlooked. He wants to do something about it.

So what we’re saying here is that Hype is like a beautiful equation for the astute gambler:

Line value + distracted/overconfident Hype recipient + motivated opposition = KaChing!

Okay, so with that established, we’re ready to get down to the real business of today’s column: The 2011 Green Bay Packers and the "Quest for the Undefeated Season". Because there’s no Hype quite like the “can they go undefeated?” Hype that kicks in when a team gets to 12-0 and beyond.

If you happen to be a Patriots fan, as I am, you might recall an interesting point spread phenomenon that emerged during the 2007 near-perfect season. After starting on a murderous 9-3 tear ATS (actually, they started 8-0 ATS), the Pats went 1-3 ATS in their final four regular season games that year, in addition to going 0-3 ATS in the postseason, for an Icarus-like 1-6 ATS crash and burn down the stretch.

Considering that the Packers are in a similar position right about now, sitting at 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS, Rock Box Sports decided to take a closer look at some of the other prominent teams that have started 12-0 or better in recent history. The list includes (in addition to the 2007 Pats): the 1998 Broncos (started 13-0), 2005 Colts (13-0), 2009 Colts (14-0) and 2009 Saints (13-0).

So what did we find? Well, it shocked even us. All of the aforementioned teams were in roughly similar spots after 12 games in terms of their ATS records:

1998 Broncos: 9-3

2005 Colts: 9-3

2007 Pats: 9-3

2009 Colts: 8-3-1

2009 Saints: 8-4

2011 Packers: 8-4.

Okay, pretty good, right? Everyone’s betting the undefeated team, people are making money, Hype is building, the media’s on board, the public’s on board, [Insert Name Here] is the greatest quarterback ever to play the game. HE JUST CAN’T BE STOPPED.

And then what?

The bandwagon capsizes. The combination of public frenzy, media distraction, player hubris and increasingly motivated opposition becomes too much to bear and the whole thing just tips. Call it the Point Spread Valdez.

Here’s a look at these same teams and their ATS records over the last four games of the regular season:

1998 Broncos: 0-4

2005 Colts: 0-3-1

2007 Pats: 1-3

2009 Colts: 2-2

2009 Saints: 0-4

See what I’m getting at here? Total ATS record in the final four games of the regular season for teams that started 13-0 or better since 1998: 3-16-1.   

Don’t believe the Hype, folks. The best bet in the NFL over the next four weeks might just be a blind one against the Green Bay Packers.

Share this:

• Email