2011-12 NHL Power Rankings: Second Installment (Dec. 4, 2011)

Why read my power rankings? While it may be an overused article topic, I feel like I bring a unique approach to my rankings. Rather than simply ranking the teams 1-30, I break them up into six categories:

Cup Favorites: Teams that should surprise no one were they to go all the way. The class of the league.

Cup Contenders: Teams that will surprise many if they go all the way, but shouldn't. Conference powers that are expected to at least make it out of the first round.

Sleepers: Teams that should make the playoffs, and are equipped to pull off a surprising playoff run. Last year, the Tampa Bay Lightning dominated this section of my rankings.

Bubble Teams: Teams that may or may not make the playoffs. A bubble team is talented enough to make the playoffs, but is not (or is not playing like) a legitimate threat.

Longshots: Teams that are not likely to make the playoffs. If they get hot, they could squeeze in as a 7 or 8 seed, but are fringe teams at best.

Bottom Feeders: Teams that are nowhere near contention and almost guaranteed a high draft pick. Even early in the season, landing in this category means that the playoffs are very unlikely.

Given this system, my rankings may not exactly reflect how a team has played to this point. A team may be playing over their heads, and land in the Cup Contenders category even though they have more points than a Cup Favorite. A team may be placed in the Sleepers category even if they are barely in playoff position, because, in my opinion, that team has underachieved to this point.

In the end, these rankings are more subjective than many, as there is no formula. But I believe that the only point of this type of writing is to stir up a discussion; formulaic power rankings lull most to sleep. As I'm probably doing right now.

Cup Favorites

1. Pittsburgh Penguins

They were #1 in my first installment, and Sidney Crosby has returned and returned to form since. So this shouldn't surprise anyone. They have the deepest roster in the league, an elite goalie, and the world's best player. And they're winning.

2. San Jose Sharks

They were #2 in my first installment, and they're 5-2 since. So this shouldn't surprise anyone. The Sharks are 7-0 when scoring first, and they certainly won't be scoring first any less moving forward.

3. Detroit Red WIngs

The Wings have been hot and cold and scorching this season. In the midst of a seven-game winning streak (their third winning streak of at least four this year), this is clearly a team that can beat, check that, crush anyone. Except San Jose.

Cup Contenders

4. New York Rangers

The NHL's best team at 14-5-3. They are outshot by almost five shots per game, and have not lost a game all season when they are outshot. This stat displays a team that has a system for winning figured out: Score early, dump the puck deep, win draws, play defense, goaltend. This is not the stuff of a hot team, this is the stuff of a legitimate championship contender.

5. Boston Bruins

Far and away the NHL's best team this past June and now this past November. Also were the NHL's worst team this past October. It's unheard of to repeat as cup champs these days, but a 12-0-1 run is not simply the stuff of shaking a hangover, it's the stuff of a team that can win a few consecutive playoff series...again.

6. Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks do soe very important things vey well: Win draws, outshoot opponents, score first, and hold leads. In stark contrast to last year's team, they are 4th in the west record wise with a plus-3 goal differential, instead of 8th with a plus-35. They are winning close games, and if Corey Crawford gets going, they'll be virtually unstoppable.

7. Philadelphia Flyers

The Flyers score 3.5 goals per game. They are a cup contender based on that alone. They have 10 forwards (yeah, TEN) with at least four goals. That means they have three legit scoring lines and probably the best scoring fourth line in the NHL. To actually win a cup, they need to win more than 46.9% of draws and get on the right side of a .900 save %.

Sleepers

8. Minnesota Wild

The Wild sit atop the Western Conference right now. They have the best goaltending tandem in the NHL right now, dominant defense, a PK that scores almost as much as it gets scored on, and a face-off % of 53.1. They also score 2.31 goals per game, and until their offense (or more likely, front office) wakes up, they will be a sleeper.

9. Los Angeles Kings

The Kings are like the Wild with a little more sleeper potential but are also a little more sleep in their eyes. They are scoring only 2.32 goals per game despite bringing in Mike Richards and Simon Gagne this offseason. Without Jonathan Quick, this could be a sinking ship. As it is, they are floating.

10. Toronto Maple Leafs

Phil Kessel and Joffrey Lupul may be carrying this team right now, and people may look at this and say that once they inevitably cool down, so will the Leafs. However, when looking at this team, one should also expect to see a production increase from Mikahli Grabovski, Nikolai Kulemin, and Matthew Lombardi. Add the defensive boost James Reimer's return will provide, and we may be looking at a team that is actually ready to move up.

11. St. Louis Blues

The Blues may be the purest sleeper there is right now. Unlike these other sleepers, the Blues truly go unnoticed. How many people would name the NHL's top nine teams this season and think of St. Louis? They are the NHL's second best team 5-on-5, and have allowed a league-low 2.00 goals per game. As with Toronto, a projected return to earth for Brian Elliott, Alex Steen must be looked at next to a projected improvement from Jaroslav Halak, Chris Stewart and David Perron.

12. Florida Panthers

What is hockey's best line right now? Marleau-Thornton-Pavelski? Ovechkin-Backstrom-Semin? Perr-Getzlaf-Ryan? Try Versteeg-Weiss-Fleischmann. With one of the league's best offensive bluelines and a reborn Jose Theodore, the Panthers are comfortably leading Washington in the Southeast. It's as if all of the talent of the Cap's top line, their blue line offense, and goaltending prowess was transferred to Florida.

Bubble Teams

13. Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks are 7-3 in their last 10 and have the NHL's best power play. While it may be unfair to still call them a "bubble team," this team is proving not to be the team they were last year. They have a weaker blueline, worse goaltending, and far less offensive depth.

14. Buffalo Sabres

The Sabres looked to me like the best team in the East on opening day, with three excellent scoring lines, a bolstered blueline, and Ryan Miller. I went on record saying they were a top line center away from being the best team in the NHL. Apparently they are a top line center away from being any sort of cup contender.

15. Dallas Stars

The Stars are getting outscored 5-on-5. They are mediocre on special teams. They are leading the Pacific. Why? excellent third period play. If Kari fades, Dallas misses the playoffs, and even if he doesn't, they don't escape round one.

16. Phoenix Coyotes

Ok, so this must be the year where Phoenix finally disappears like a desert mirage. No more Bryz or Jovo, and fan support continues to plummet. Winnipeg chose the lowly Thrashers over them. And Dave Tippett's boys are proving everyone wrong once again. Shane Doan's team leading 20 goals last year will likely be shattered by Radim Vrbata by the all-star break

17. Edmonton Oilers

The Los Angeles Kings brought in Mike Richards and Simon Gagne, looking to turn their team into an offensive force. They should've accounted for Ryan Smyth, who's return to Edmonton has turned the Oilers into just that. Like with Dallas, they remain a playoff contender as long as Khabilbulin remains hot.

18. Washington Capitals

When was the last time the Caps looked up in the power rankings and saw Edmonton? Probably not since the last time Alex Ovechkin looked up on the team's goal chart and saw Jason Chimera. 

19. Nashville Predators

While Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is grabbing all the headlines, Craig Smith is quietly making a Calder case. The rookie is, along with the league's best defensive trifecta, making up for sluggish starts from Nashville's go-to point sources.

 20. New Jersey Devils

How can a team built around Zach Parise, Ilya Kovalchuk, and Martin Brodeur be in 12 place? When the former two are a combined minus-21 and the latter has a save % of .879 and a GAA of 3.31. New Jersey enough talent defensively that they may make the playoffs anyway, but this is no longer a championship roster and probably needs to be blown up.

21. Tampa Bay Lightning

I have come to the realization this season that Steven Stamkos is the best winger in the NHL. He's so good that he may lead a highly flawed team to the playoffs. But even if Roloson has another legendary performance left in him, they aren't getting through Boston or Pittsburgh again. Maybe Washington.

Longshots

22. Colorado Avalanche

As with Edmonton, the question with the Avs is more "when" than "if." Unlike Edmonton, the answer for Colorado is "later." This team has a ton of young talent, but just doesn't seem to have the defense to be a playoff team this year. Erik Johnson won't let Chris Stewart make the Avs happy they traded him without a fight.

23. Ottawa Senators

Is it wrong to call a team currently in 8th place a longshot? Not when they are in 8th place thanks to Milan Michalek's ridiculous 16 goals and Erik Karlsson's insane 21 points. These guys will cool off, but the defense will not heat up: the Sens have allowed the most goals in the NHL this year, and that's with their only decent netminder in goal for all but one game so far.

24. Montreal Canadiens

Two years ago, the playoff wizardry of Jaroslav Halak got the Habs to the eastern finals. Last year, the Vezina-worthy campaign of Carey Price got Montreal to the playoffs. This year, even the game's best goalie isn't going to be enough. Not when Scott Gomez may or may not finish the season with more millons than points.

25. Calgary Flames

The Flames are unique in today's NHL. With an ultra-competitive climate that is constantly shifting, Calgary remains the only team with a "we aren't good enough and that's ok" mentality. Some struggling franchises rebuild (Edmonton, NY Isles), while others bring in quality free agents (Florida, Columbus). The Flames seem to be fine with paying Iginla, Kipper, and Jokenin to remain on the outside looking in indefinitely.

26. Winnipeg Jets

The Jets have simply got to move Dustin Byfuglien to forward. He's 5th in the NHL in D-man scoring, but you have to go to #33 to find a guy with as low a plus/minus. He's also 5th in D-men PIM. Clearly he's not helping the team at all defensively, and a move to forward would only increase his offensive impact.

Bottom Feeders

27. Anaheim Ducks

Cam Fowler has racked up a nice minus-40 rating in his first 101 NHL games. Lubimor Visnovsky has less than 1/16 of last year's point total. "Hockey's best line" is a combined -28. Jonas Hiller has a .900 save % and a 3.14 GAA. While lack of secondary scoring and stay-at-home D-men are built in roster flaws, everything that could be going wrong for Ducks is so far this season, save Teemu Selanne's ageless dominance.

28. New York Islanders

The Islanders are miles away from a playoff team (literally), but here are a few things they must do to even look respectable: 1) Never play Rick DiPietro. Ever. 2) stop letting guys who are not NHL-caliber players (Reasoner, Mottau, MacDonald, etc) play for your team There are plenty of unsigned guys better than a third of this roster. There is a minimum salary cap, which they'd be under if they got rid of DiPietro and thus would have to go over by signing some NHL-caliber free agents. 

29. Columbus Blue Jackets

Why were people calling Columbus a playoff-caliber team before the season? They have dreadful depth, defense, and goaltending. The only thing going for them was Rick Nash (minus-14, a team-worst) and Jeff Carter (8 points, which is sadly good enough for 8th best on the team). 

30. Carolina Hurricanes

Much like Columbus, Carolina doesn't have much depth or defense, and their worst player in plus/minus is their captain. In fact, Staal is literally the NHL's last-ranked player at minus-17. Five spots up on the NHL's minus-meter is Tomas Kaberle (actually the third worst Hurricane). If these pathetic 5-on-5 numbers weren't enough, the 'Canes have the 28th ranked PP and the 25th ranked PK.