NBA Free Agents: Restricted Players That Will Command Fat Contracts

In the NBA there is always someone willing to take a gamble on someone. Some of these players have earned fat contracts and some have not. However, each of these players will start to enter into their prime in their contract and someone is going to give them a big paycheck to play for them. 

For each player I'll give you my projection of what I think they'll end up commanding in the market and whether I think they'll be worth it. 

Marc Gasol: $10 million

Gasol is far and away not only the best, but also the most accomplished of the restricted free agents in this year's market. It's starting to look a lot less like Memphis got "ripped off" than it did a few years ago. Marc Gasol really started to come into his own last year during the postseason, averaging 15 points and 11.2 boards.

There are two things for certain: First, someone will make a big offer for him and second, Memphis will match it. Gasol says he won't come back and play for less than $9 million. That's not going to be a problem.  

Greg Oden: $9.0 million

Remember, there's always one guy. This isn't about what a guy is "worth" so much as what he can get. In the NBA, those can be two very different conversations. I would say it's ridiculous to think he could make that much money but here's the thing: Portland already extended the $8.45 million qualifying offer.  

Big men are always a tough find in the NBA and someone is going to try and give him even more. 

Arron Afflalo: $8.0 million

Afflalo has generated a tremendous amount of buzz, and it's questionable whether he's worth all of it. My guess is that someone will offer him $8 million. I would be hesitant to pay a player that much that has yet to really prove himself as a starter or as a top-two scorer as a shooting guard, but someone will.

Only time will tell if he's worth that much. 

Jeff Green was once considered as potential top talent when he was taken with the fifth overall pick in the '07 draft. At times he's looked like he could realize that potential and then at times he's looked like he is going to come up short. Rodney Stuckey has shown flashes of brilliance, once scoring 40 points in a game. Either could command a salary over $5 million, the MLE. 

Incidentally I've been asked on numerous occasions regarding restricted free agents. You cannot sign and trade an RFA. If you could, then teams would essentially match every time and then use that to coerce the other team into send them players in exchange.