Will Virginia Best NC State Down the Stretch? $1 Says They Will

I live in Raleigh and claim Virginia as my team of choice.  This makes for a difficult college basketball life. I am the subject of much ridicule and mockery among the Tobacco road fandom in the area, especially with this disastrous season. Sometimes, however, you just need to draw a line in the sand. Today is that day.

I have bet a coworker one dollar—I’m not a gambling man—that Virginia will win more games to finish out the regular season than North Carolina State. Virginia currently possesses one ACC win, while NC State has four. On the face of it, this appears to be a pretty stupid bet on my part. A look at the numbers reveals that it might be more even than on first blush.

Let’s break it down.

1. Schedule

The two teams have similarly tough schedules left. Below is what they look like.

UVa	NC State
@ BC	CLEM
@ GT	UNC
NCST	@ UVA
@ MIA	FSU
DUKE	DUKE
MARY	@ WFU

Virginia opens this six-game stretch with two road games against two teams below .500 in ACC play. UVa beat Boston College pretty handily the first time around and took Georgia Tech to overtime, but both of those contests were at home. NC State has two homers against rough competition—Clemson and North Carolina. UNC might even have Ty Lawson back at that point, making a win against the Heels an even tougher proposition.

The two teams play each other in the third game of the set. They match up well, as will be evident in the next section, entitled “why UVa and NC State match up well.”

NC State has the clear advantage versus the Florida schools. Virginia must take on Miami away from JPJ, while State has Florida State at home. In internet parlance, Miami > FSU.

Maryland at home versus Wake Forest on the road is sort of a wash. Wake Forest plays extraordinarily at home, brandishing a solid 13-1 home record. Maryland is a good road team, downing the likes of UNC, Georgia Tech, and BC on the road—no easy feat.

The schedules are somewhat even, but the nod goes to NC State.

2. Why UVa and NC State match up well

A quick peek at Kenpom.com’s Pythagorean Winning Percentage (PWP) reveals that Virginia is actually ranked slightly higher than NC State despite only having one ACC win.  The PWP is essentially a weighted average of offensive and defensive efficiency measure (an explanation can be found here). 

Actually, the teams only differ in the thousandths place of the PWP calculation, pitting them 94th and 95th in the country. Virginia is a little bit better on offense and NC State is a little better on defense, but in general these teams are very, very close.

This battle is even.

3. Luck 

I have mentioned this statistic previously and Virginia’s luck has only gotten worse since I wrote about it then. Virginia’s luck is now at -1.7 wins, 317th best in the nation. 

NC State, on the other hand, has had great luck allowing NC State to win an additional 2.6 games, tenth best in the nation. Luck has to even out eventually, right? Doesn’t it? 

The fine gentleman who took the other end of this bet definitely mentioned a “regression to the mean” worry and rightly so. Big advantage on Virginia’s side here.

In summary, I feel like I made a solid bet here. What do you think? Let me know in the comments.