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NFL Week 12 Picks: Predicting Scores for Every Thanksgiving Game

Andrea HangstNov 24, 2011

It's Thanksgiving, and that means eating too much delicious food, spending time with people you care about and, of course, football.

Three games are scheduled for today: the Detroit Lions host the undefeated Green Bay Packers; the Miami Dolphins travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys; and brothers Jim and John Harbaugh face off as their respective teams, the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens, meet in the night game.

Here are my picks and predictions for each of these three exciting contests.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

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A day of high-quality NFL action kicks off with an early contest between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers.

Gone are the days when the Lions hosted their traditional Thanksgiving game and everyone complained about of how terrible it was to watch Detroit play.

Instead, the Lions are at 7-3 and are hosting their undefeated divisional rival. They are hoping to be the team that will best the Packers for the first time this year. If any team has what it takes to do so, it's the Lions.

The Packers have a high-powered offense centered firmly around quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the passing game. Rodgers has completed 72.3 percent of his passes this year—for 3,168 yards, 31 touchdowns and four interceptions—and has even rushed for two more scores.

Rodgers has completed passes to 13 different receivers this year, and that's the biggest threat to the Lions' strong defense. Stopping that aerial attack is difficult, but not impossible. If any team is up to the task, it's the Lions.

At the same time, Detroit is more than capable of putting forth a serious offensive effort. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown 25 touchdowns of his own so far this year.

The key to beating the Packers lies not just in trying to shut down Rodgers and the passing game, but also matching him throw-for-throw, completion-for-completion. Detroit must come out of four quarters having scored more than the Packers—who haven't ended a game with fewer than 24 points this season.

This will be a close, tough game that the Lions certainly have a chance to win, but I am picking the Packers today. They'll remain undefeated simply because their offense will make fewer mistakes than Detroit's.

Final score: Packers 41, Lions 35

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins

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Both the Miami Dolphins and the Dallas Cowboys are on three-game winning streaks. The Dolphins started the year 0-7 and then won their next three straight, while the Cowboys, at 6-4, need to continue winning in order to reach the postseason.

When the two meet in Jerryland this afternoon, one team's streak will be broken. I predict it will be the Dolphins'.

It seems like Miami has managed to fix the chronic mistakes that plagued the team in those first seven losses: quarterback Matt Moore finally looks comfortable as a starter, running back Reggie Bush has become the integral part of the team's offense that he was meant to be and their defense is playing strongly.

However, those improvements won't be enough against the red-hot Dallas Cowboys. In their past three games, quarterback Tony Romo has thrown six touchdowns and zero interceptions. He has been helped immensely by the team's improved running game behind rookie DeMarco Murray.

While I don't think Romo will escape this game without any picks (I predict he will be intercepted twice), he will lead his team to victory.

The Dolphins aren't a bad team, but their early missteps will rear their ugly heads once again, costing them a win on the road this holiday.

Final score: Cowboys 30, Dolphins 25

Baltimore Ravens vs. San Francisco 49ers

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The storyline—two head coach brothers facing each other on Thanksgiving—is compelling to be sure, but the best thing about tonight's game between the San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens is that it's a big game between two excellent teams.

The Niners have seemingly come from nowhere to become one of the very best teams in the NFL. Their 6-10 record in 2010 became a 9-1 record in the first 11 weeks of the 2011 season.

While San Francisco has fielded a top-tier defense since 2009, their offense has never matched their success and the team as a whole has suffered.

Now, with new head coach Jim Harbaugh at the helm, he's taken that underperforming offense and found a formula to make it work: a heavy dose of running combined with efficient and intelligent passing, all of which plays to the strengths of quarterback Alex Smith.

San Francisco's defense—with 15 interceptions and 25 sacks on the year—is like a nightmare version of their Baltimore counterpart (as impossible as that sounds). It will be this defense that will lead them to their 10th win of the season.

Baltimore, leading the AFC North at 7-3, has fielded one of its best squads in years. Yet, the team still suffers from offensive inconsistency.

Quarterback Joe Flacco has thrown eight interceptions and has lost five fumbles already this year. His young receiving corps hasn't done him many favors either, with a number of dropped passes and missed opportunities.

Good defenses know how to capitalize on an offense's mistakes. While I don't believe the Niners will be without their flaws when their offense takes the field, San Francisco has become the team Baltimore wishes they were.

As such, the visiting team will leave town with another win and Baltimore will suffer their first home loss of the season.

Final score: 49ers 24, Ravens 17

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