Week 12 NFL Picks: Predicting Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins

Tony Romo and the Dallas Cowboys are right where they need to be as they prepare for their Thanksgiving Day game against the Miami Dolphins.

The Cowboys have won three straight games, including two against teams with losing records. Romo threw eight touchdown passes and no interceptions in those games.

In their 27-24 overtime win against the Redskins on Sunday, Romo threw touchdown passes to three receivers.

With six games left, the Cowboys have plenty to be happy about: their three straight wins helped them catch the New York Giants for the NFC East Division lead; Romo is playing very well; DeMarco Murray has made the running game relevant for the Cowboys; Rookie kicker Dan Bailey leads the league in field-goal percentage (.962).

Now, the Cowboys still face four teams with losing records in their last six games.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins are also on the upward swing. After losing their first seven games, the Dolphins have won three straight. On Sunday, the Dolphins summarily beat the Buffalo Bills 35-8. Matt Moore threw three touchdown passes.

The Dolphins were without their regular kicker, Dan Carpenter, due to a groin injury and picked up Shayne Graham to kick against the BIlls. Whether Carpenter will be ready to play against the Cowboys is questionable.

The Cowboys are 27-15-1 on Thanksgiving Day and have won four of their last five.

To continue their Thanksgiving Day success, the Cowboys must answer a few questions.

Can Romo continue his run of relatively mistake-free play? Can DeMarco Murray regain his ferocious rushing march? Will DeMarcus Ware take advantage of a Miami offensive line that tends to give up numerous sacks? How well will Sean Lee progress? Will the Cowboys contain Reggie Bush?

Tony Romo

24-of-31, 332 yards passing, 3 TD, 2 rushes, 10 yards

Romo will succeed fantastically against the struggling Dolphins pass defense. He'll be very accurate and avoid making such poor throws that will lead to interceptions. While Romo will make a few bad reads, none will end up in the mitts of players in green and orange.

Romo will use short passes to set up the deep throws.  He'll hit players on dump passes and bubble screens, then he'll air it out. On a couple of occasions he'll connect with receivers on bombs.

DeMarco Murray

16 rushes, 78 yards, 5 receptions, 35 yards

Murray fell off a bit against the Redskins.

After a streak of four straight games in which he averaged six or more yards per carry, Murray averaged 2.9 yards per carry while rushing for 73 yards against the Redskins.

Against the Dolphins, Murray will regain his step to some degree, breaking several runs of significant yardage. Once or twice, he'll break runs of twenty yards or more.

Also, Murray will be active in the passing game, taking a few receptions. Two of those will notch first downs for the Cowboys.

Dez Bryant

4 receptions, 80 yards, TD

Dez Bryant was huge in the Cowboys win against the Redskins on Sunday, even though he only caught three passes. All three of his catches carried impact, including the first score of the game and a catch to set up the game-winning field goal.

Thursday will be no different for Bryant. He will make a few catches, break free and pick up yards after the catch. One catch will go for a touchdown.

Laurent Robinson

Laurent Robinson will likely start again for the Cowboys as Miles Austin continues to nurse a hamstring injury. According to the Dallas Morning News, Austin didn't practice on Monday and doesn't appear to be on track to return to action on Thursday.

With Austin out, Robinson will continue his strong production. He has hauled in three receptions in six of the last eight games.

He'll pull in a few against the Dolphins. Robinson will use his speed to gain separation and grab catches for solid gains. One catch will see him go in the end zone.

Jason Witten

5 receptions, 60 yards, TD

Witten snapped his streak of nine straight games with at least four receptions on Sunday. However, one of his three catches was a 59-yard touchdown pass.

Witten will have solid production again on Thursday. He'll break up the seam and open the window for passes from Romo. He'll have at least five catches, one for a touchdown.

DeMarcus Ware

3 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 pass deflection

The Dolphins don't do a very good job protecting their quarterbacks (30 sacks this season). They've given up sacks on 9.1 percent of quarterback drop backs.

This doesn't bode well for them as they face one of the premier pass-rushers.

DeMarcus Ware will continue his sack parade in the Dolphins backfield. On a few occasions, he'll hurry Moore to pass early. At least twice he'll take Moore down for sacks.

Sean Lee

5 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 1 pass deflection

Lee was terrific in his second game playing with a cast on his wrist, posting a superb 10 tackles. One can imagine what he has prepared for the Dolphins.

Lee will be even stronger against the Dolphins. He'll be solid stopping the run and honest and aggressive playing his gap. Also, Lee will be strong in pass coverage, knocking down a pass and picking up a receiver on a short pass to keep the guy from breaking away.

He'll have his share of tackles. However, he won't grab as many as he did on Sunday, simply as a matter of fewer ball-carriers coming at him. Lee will take what comes at him. 

Terence Newman

2 tackles, 1 INT

Newman has done a solid job in coverage with four interceptions. He's done a very good job sticking his man.

Against the Dolphins, Newman will remain a sure cover man. He'll keep pace with Brandon Marshall. Though Marshall will take some receptions, Newman won't let him go far after the catch.

Also, Newman will grab an interception.

Dan Bailey

1/1 FG, 3/3 XP

Bailey is nothing but clutch. He kicked his third game-winning field goal against the Redskins on Sunday.

With 100 points, Bailey is on track to break to rookie record for kicking points held by Kevin Butler (144).

On Thursday, Bailey will be solid. He might not get as many chances as other games, but he will be on target.

Prediction

Prediction:  Cowboys 24, Dolphins 17

The Cowboys will pull out a victory, but it will be a close one. The Dolphins might be a losing team, but they put up a fight in every game. They haven't lost a game by more than three points since October 17. Only once have they been held to fewer than 10 points this season.

This one will be decided in the fourth quarter. One can hardly tell if it will require Bailey to knock one through in the final minute, but the Cowboys will see Romo and the Cowboys offense play disciplined ball at the end of the game to hold on.

Romo and the Cowboys will be solid offensively. Romo will be gorgeous passing the ball once again. Murray will do well, but not in eye-popping fashion.

The Cowboys defense will do a pretty good job. Moore will manage to rack up about 200 yards passing, but the Cowboys will sack him a few times. Dallas will be strong once again stopping the run. They'll stop Bush's string of touchdowns and keep Daniel Thomas silent.

This will be an important win to tally. The Cowboys face the Arizona Cardinals before playing the first of two games against the Giants in a four-week span.  

Dallas will continue to heat up when they need to be hot.