Week 11 NFL Picks: 3 Big Home Favorites That Will Cover with Ease

Each and every Sunday, no matter what records are coming in, every team in the NFL can come away with a win (except, maybe, the Colts against the Packers).

Still, the NFL has the world's most exciting product because anything can happen at any moment.

That being said, there are three games this week with big spreads that I think don't even do the home team justice.  You never like to watch a blowout, unless it's your squad getting the big win.

Here are a few games for which a down-to-the-wire, gut-wrenching finish is just not in the cards.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers (-14)

This is a huge spread, I know.  This is a great Green Bay Packers offense as well, though.

Even though Green Bay's defense has not been as dominant as last year's championship team's was, it still has a lot of components that can give certain opponents fits.

A lot of Green Bay's victories have been high-scoring shootouts, because their pass defense makes a 14-point spread look like a stretch.  Those games, such as the 45-38 win over San Diego or the 42-34 win over New Orleans, were shootouts because the other offense was great in its own right.

This week, the Packers play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are 4-5 and fading fast.

The Bucs started out 3-1, but they have been outscored in their last five games by an average of 31 to 14, and it will get no easier this week.  It's to the point where Green Bay's offense is running so smoothly and efficiently that they are a lock for 30 points or more.

To keep up, you need a passing game full of firepower.  The Bucs just don't have that, as they only average 233 passing yards and 97 rushing yards per game.

Josh Freeman is a durable, consistent, smart quarterback, but he doesn't have the weapons to run up and down the field in a shootout.  LeGarrette Blount is the best weapon in their arsenal, but the Packers will be up too early to get him going.

Just ask Adrian Peterson how that works—he only got 14 carries last week.

The Buccaneers' defense is on a really bad slide, and now sits at No. 28 against the pass and No. 29 against the run.

It just doesn't match up well here for Tampa Bay; Green Bay is too finely tuned to get caught up in a slug fest with them, especially in Green Bay.

Prediction:  Green Bay Packers over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 37-16

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions (-7)

The Detroit Lions just went through an excruciating blowout loss to division rival Chicago.  The good news is they are coming home to Detroit and play 2-7 Carolina.

Things aren't necessarily trending upwards for Detroit, but I haven't given up on them like a lot of people have.

They have lost to some tough teams—Atlanta, San Francisco and Chicago—but they have beaten some good teams, too.  What really shines through for me is after they went through a two-game losing streak, they came out and executed perfectly against a Denver team that we're seeing isn't actually as bad as we thought.

Detroit still lacks a running game without Jahvid Best, but they should be able to get it going with Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams against Carolina's No. 28-ranked rush defense.

Coach Jim Schwartz knows what works for his team, and they must run to open up the passing game.  It just doesn't work to have Matthew Stafford throw it 63 times, which turned into four interceptions last week.

Still, Detroit is near the top of the league in turnover differential, with plus-eight.  They had only turned the ball over six times all year before last week, and will get back to that ball security this week against the Panthers, who have just 10 takeaways all year.

Where the Panthers excel is Cam Newton's ability to pass the ball down the field.  He already has over 2,600 passing yards in his rookie season, and has been sensational at times, but he does have 10 interceptions on the year.

I think Detroit and their No. 8-ranked pass defense will take away Steve Smith and let the other receivers try to beat them.  Newton will have a frustrating time trying to pass on Detroit, who allow just 184 yards passing per game and get into some turnover trouble.

Stafford has always been a gamer and will have a short memory of last week's debacle, and he will restore the Lions' roar.

Prediction:  Detroit Lions over Carolina Panthers, 38-20

San Diego Chargers @ Chicago Bears (-4)

The nightmare that the Chargers are living in right now will keep right on rolling when they hit Soldier Field on Sunday.   The Bears are on completely opposite tracks right now—the Chargers have dropped four straight games, while the Bears are on a four-game winning streak.

The Bears have consistently made improvements this season up front.  Early on, it seemed that Jay Cutler wouldn't make it through the season; lately, he has had much more time.

When he has more time, he can take care of the football a lot better, which has gotten the Bears to a plus-nine turnover differential.

That is the exact problem the Chargers have had this season—they are minus-eight in turnover margin.  A lot of the blame has to go on Phillip Rivers, who is having the worst statistical season of his career.

He has already matched a career high with 15 interceptions this year.  He has eight interceptions in his last four games, and now faces a Bears defense in the swirling winds of Chicago who just picked off Matthew Stafford four times. 

The ability of the Bears to win games without lighting up the scoreboard or the stat sheet is why I like them here.

They don't need Cutler to throw for 400 yards; often, they don't even need him to throw for 200 yards.  They know who drives them, and it's Matt Forte.  Forte will get the ball early and often on the ground and through the air, and they will let Rivers out-throw himself, and will eventually bury the Chargers.

It also helps to have the best return man of all time in Devin Hester, who always puts his stamp on the game—even if it's just forcing the punter into a mistake while trying to avoid him.

Prediction: Chicago Bears over San Diego Chargers, 33-23