NFL Week 11 Picks: Take the Points With These 5 Underdogs

Hey, at least Indianapolis can't lose this week, right guys? But let's not pile on—to the picks! (My picks in bold.)

Buffalo (+1) at Miami

Yes, I am predicting the Bills will reverse trends and beat the Dolphins this week.

Sure, the Bills have lost two games in a row and three of four. Sure, the Dolphins have won two games in a row after starting 0-7.

But consider who they played. After starting 4-1, the Bills have lost to the Giants, Jets and Cowboys—all pretty solid football teams. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have beaten the Chiefs and Redskins, two rather dreadful football teams.

At some point, you have to believe in talent winning out. And I believe the Bills are simply more talented than the Dolphins. It isn't time to completely abandon the Bills just yet.

Cincinnati (+6) at Baltimore

Do I think the Ravens will win this game? Yes.

But do I think it will be a tightly contested game? Absolutely.

Baltimore is as inconsistent as they come. On one hand, they squeaked out close wins against the Steelers (23-30) and Cardinals (30-27) in the past four weeks. On the other, they inexplicably lost to Seattle last week (22-17), and Jacksonville (12-7) four weeks ago. They are 2-2 in their past four, and they seem to suffer from playing to the level of their opponent.

Cincinnati isn't an elite team just yet, but they are a competitive squad (they played the Steelers tough last week, losing 24-17) that has earned their 6-3 record.

Tampa Bay (+14) at Green Bay

In six of Green Bay's nine wins, they have won by a margin of less than 14 points. They are 31st in passing yards allowed, and Tampa Bay is certainly better at throwing the ball (15th in yards per game) than they are running it (25th in yards per game.)

Yes, you might be praying for a garbage-time cover, but the Packers are coming off of a short week, and the Bucs should be plenty motivated after getting trounced by the Texans on Sunday, 37-9.

Dallas at Washington (from +7.5 to +9)

Washington sucks. That being said, this is an NFC rivalry game and these are generally pretty close on familiarity alone. Plus, Tony Romo and the Cowboys are fickle enough that a pretty solid Washington defense that is ninth in points allowed (19.8 per game) and 12th in yards allowed (337.1 per game) should give them some fits.

This is a risky play, but I don't trust the Cowboys enough to pull away from a divisional rival. They'll get a closer-than-expected win.

San Diego (+3.5) at Chicago

I can't stop looking at this line, mostly because I just don't believe that this Bears team is as good as their current four-game winning streak or that this Chargers team is as bad as their current three-game losing streak.

I don't believe the Bears will get 21 points from their defense and special teams like they did last week. I do believe having 10 days to prepare for this game will see a refocused and refreshed Chargers team ready to resuscitate their season.

Expect San Diego to sneak by the Bears in a fairly high-scoring game.