NFL Picks Week 11: Favorites That Are Going to Disappoint

The problem with favorites is that they have a lot to live up to. It's not enough that they have to win. They have to win and cover a mysteriously calculated point spread too.

Such is the plight of favorites, and not all of them manage to live up to expectations.

In Week 11, there are only three favorites that I think are going to fall short. They'll win, but don't expect them to win and cover. This week, that may be asking them to do too much. 

Note: all spreads according to Sportsbook.

New York Jets (-6) at Denver Broncos

The Jets just got knocked around by the New England Patriots and that team's pass-heavy offense, and now they get to face the Broncos and their option offense.

I can't recall the last time, if ever, an NFL team committed itself to running an option offense full-time, but the Broncos have done it quite well in the last two games. For them, it's all about running the football, and if nothing else, that will allow them to avoid testing the Jets' pass defense.

My guess is that the Broncos are going to end up winning the time of possession battle, so it will be up to the Jets to be efficient with their possessions. That's an iffy proposition when it comes to the Jets, especially seeing as how LaDainian Tomlinson is likely going to be out. But it's also not unheard of for Mark Sanchez to pull an impressive performance out of his pocket.

In the end, I think the Jets will have just enough to keep the Broncos at bay. Emphasis on "just enough."

Jets 20, Broncos 17

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-7)

The Bengals are coming off a game in which they were narrowly defeated by the Pittsburgh Steelers; the Ravens are coming off a game in which they were embarrassingly defeated by the Seattle Seahawks.

Evidently, the oddsmakers think home cooking will get the Ravens back on their feet. This despite the fact that their offense is about as reliable as a cardboard spaceship. That the offense will be going up against a tough Bengals defense makes me worried.

It's going to be interesting to see how Cincinnati's own offense responds. It's a solid enough unit, but certainly not prolific. On the road against the Ravens and their studly defense, Andy Dalton and friends could be in for some tough sledding.

The good news for those who would pick the Bengals is that their offense is not going to doom them. They'll be held in check, but the Ravens won't be able to pull away.

Ravens 20, Bengals 17

Tennessee Titans at Atlanta Falcons (-6)

Don't look now, but Chris Johnson has actually showed signs of life in the last two weeks. He had over 100 yards of total offense against the Bengals in Week 9, and he rushed for 130 yards against the Carolina Panthers this past Sunday.

The Titans are going to need more of the same from CJ2K if they are to stand a chance against the Falcons on the road this coming Sunday. The Falcons are by no means a great team, but they are a tough team to beat at home. Only the Green Bay Packers and New Orleans Saints have trumped the Falcons at home this season, and the Titans aren't quite in their class.

However, the Falcons are far from invincible. They let their opponents hang around, and they have an offense that suffers from an identity crisis from time to time. Furthermore, their defense is somewhere below elite.

The Falcons are a better team, and they are going to win this game. What I am banking on is that the Titans will catch the Falcons unawares after their big letdown against the Saints. The Titans will give them a scare and ultimately force the Falcons to put them away.

Falcons 28, Titans 24