NFL Picks Week 10: Texans Will Help Themselves to a Road Win vs. Buccaneers

The Houston Texans seem to have the AFC South pretty well in hand, but things will look a little different if they lose on the road against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Sunday.

The oddsmakers don't think that's going to happen, as Bodog has the Texans favored by three-and-a-half points.

Since you're asking, I don't think it's going to happen either. It's not easy for opponents to defeat the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay, but I think the Texans are good enough to make it happen.

Per a report from the Houston Chronicle, it sounds like Andre Johnson's status is still iffy. If he does play, Matt Schaub and Houston's passing attack will get a huge boost. If he can't play, you can look for Houston's running game to be heavily featured once again.

UPDATE: According to the Houston Chronicle, Johnson is a no-go.

And that's not a bad thing, of course. The Texans have the NFL's second-ranked rushing attack, not to mention the league's best running back duo in Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Both of them have over 600 yards rushing, and Foster is a guy who can beat you catching passes out of the backfield, too.

Making matters even better is the fact that the Bucs rank 26th in the NFL against the run. They're so desperate for help up front that they actually went out and acquired Albert Haynesworth this week. 

I'm going to go ahead and assume that Haynesworth's presence won't have an immediate impact. The Bucs are still going to be weak against the run, and that's going to play into Houston's hands.

Offensively, the key for the Bucs will be to get their own running game going by giving the ball to LeGarrette Blount early and often. He could be in for tough sledding, though, as he's going up against the league's fourth-ranked rush defense.

One thing we've seen the Bucs do this year is give up on the running game early, choosing instead to put the ball in Josh Freeman's hands. When they have, the results have been mixed, to say the least. Freeman has been given a lot of extra opportunities this season, but he hasn't done much with them. Expect more of the same against the Texans, who are also lucky enough to have the league's second-ranked pass defense.

For what it's worth, the Texans are a team that I'm not sure should be counted among the NFL's elite. But on Sunday, all that matters is that they're a better team than the Buccaneers.

Texans 28, Buccaneers 17