BCS Rankings 2011: Which Top Teams Are Most Likely to Lose?

At the moment, the top eight slots of the BCS make you believe they are the eight best teams in America. However, the BCS is a fluid situation, and we will soon see a few upsets.

Oregon travels to Palo Alto this weekend for a game filled with BCS aspirations for both teams. If Stanford runs the table, will they make it to the title?

Plus, let us not forget that Alabama goes to Auburn and that Oklahoma State hosts Oklahoma in Bedlam at the end of the regular season. We all know that somebody has to lose, but who is the likeliest to come up short?

Alabama

Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide go on the road this weekend to Starkville against a Mississippi State team that has won three of its last four games. They are coming off of a 55-17 thrashing over Tennessee-Martin.

However, the Tide beat the Bulldogs 30-10 last season, and that should be on the minds of most Bulldog players. Still, Alabama is a nearly three-touchdown favorite for a reason: The Crimson Tide posses arguably the best defense in America, leading in five different defensive categories (Run D, Pass D, Pass Efficiency D, Total D and Scoring D).

The only shot Alabama has to lose this game is if they turn it over or miss another four kicks on special teams. The Tide then get their Iron Bowl rematch with Auburn after blowing a 24-0 lead.

If they can win out, there is a decent chance they get a rematch with the Bayou Bengals, but surely they will need things to go their way. At worst, we should see Alabama take on a solid opponent in the BCS Sugar Bowl.

Chances Bama loses another game: 10 percent.

LSU

Don't forget the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are an FBS opponent. Well, the backups could probably knock them off at home in Death Valley.

However, the Bayou Bengals still have a few tough games remaining. They host Arkansas in what could decide the SEC West crown. They may be the top-ranked team in the nation, but there are a few roadblocks still remaining.

If they do sneak by Tyler Wilson and the scorching-hot Razorbacks, they would more than likely get the Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship.

UGA is a legit top-15 team and could be ranked in the top 10 if they maintain their winning streak. Plus, there are a ton of upsets at the end of the season, which includes the SEC Championships.

Chances LSU loses a game: 20 percent.

Oklahoma State

The Cowboys' offense is nearly unstoppable, ranking third in total offense and averaging 557 yards per game and 50 points per game. Texas Tech could give them a good game, but there is a reason why the Red Raiders are nearly a three-touchdown home dog.

The Cowboys' defense has given up a boatload of yards, however. Try 461 yards per game, which ranks 110th in the nation. Only the Sooners have a legit shot of giving OKST a legit game though. The Sooners defense is active, and they do have the 15th-ranked pass efficiency defense.

Bedlam is always a well-contested game, and this year should be no different.

Chances OKST loses a game: 25 percent.

Stanford

Andrew Luck has not allowed his team to fall for complacency, but they have quite the matchup at home against Oregon. Even if they win, they still have two fairly tough games remaining.

Notre Dame at home and the South Division winner will not be a walk in the park. Of course, there will be no Pac-12 championship if they were to lose to the Ducks, but how much should we expect the Cardinal to drop if they do lose?

The voters are already against Stanford, since they have not played any premier teams yet, so don’t be shocked if they drop outside of the top 10.

The computer rankings currently have Stanford at eight, but the USA Today Poll has them second and the Harris has them fourth.   

A win over the high-powered Ducks offense would them past Alabama and ever so close to Oklahoma State.

Obviously if the Cowboys run the table, they would more than likely get the nod over Stanford. One has to hope that Luck and company come out on fire against Oregon so they can stick their game plan: Power football and pin their ears back on Darron Thomas.

Chances Stanford Loses: 33 percent.

Boise State

The Broncos have a huge test against TCU this weekend, but how about the rest of their schedule?  San Diego State on the road could be a challenging game even though the Aztecs are ranked just 63rd in the BCS. However, any offense that can put some points on the board might be able to stay in a game against the Broncos.

The only problem is that Boise State is 12th in scoring defense, allowing just less than 17 points a game. Kellen Moore is getting back into his groove with the bevy of receivers he has, but Doug Martin (leg) needs to have a good game against TCU in order for them to win.

Wyoming (69th) and New Mexico (120th) will come calling to the blue carpet, but they do not have nearly enough to keep up with the seventh-ranked scoring offense (44 PPG) in the country.

Chances Boise State loses a game: 5 percent.