NFL Picks Week 10: Biggest Head-Scratching Spreads of the Week

Have you ever looked at a spread and had to rub your eyes thinking you'd just misread what you saw?

That happened to me on two separate spreads this week. Upon further review, here are two spreads that are just too obvious not to take.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Baltimore Ravens -6.5 @ Seattle Seahawks

QB Joe Flacco earned his nickname “Joe Cool” back after the Ravens' incredible fourth-quarter comeback against the Steelers.

If he can win in Pittsburgh with so much on the line, surely he can handle the 12^th man in Seattle. The strong home-field advantage for the Seahawks is the main reason this spread isn’t higher, but it’s impossible to figure out where the offense is going to come from.

They have averaged less than 10 points a game in their last three because of a running game that is 30^th in the league, gaining a mere 88.3 yards a game.

The Ravens have given up the least amount of yards in the league and never take a game off (unlike the offense).

So, whether you feel comfortable with the streaky offense or not, you can always rely on the Ravens defense…which is good enough to beat a 2-6 team with Tarvaris Jackson as your quarterback by at least a TD.

Key Trends:

Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games versus a team with a winning road record.

Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games versus a team with a losing home record.

Ravens are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a road favorite.

Prediction: Ravens 23 Seahawks 10

Washington Redskins +4 @ Miami Dolphins

So the Dolphins win one game and now everyone is jumping on the bandwagon?

Don’t buy it.

The ‘Fins are still one of the worst teams in the NFL, and they still have QB Matt Moore under center.

The Redskins may not have a great QB with John Beck, but he doesn’t turn the ball over and is making smart decisions with what the defense is giving him (even if that means 14 screen passes).

Let’s not be mistaken here…these are two bad teams. The only difference is that the Redskins have the better O-Line and the better defense. Carl Landry, DeAngelo Hall and London Fletcher are all savvy veterans that will feast on a QB like Moore. They are allowing less than 220 yards a game via the air—good enough for 11^th in the NFL.

I’m not saying this is going to be the game of the century, but it’s clear that the talent level in this matchup is a mismatch.

Considering the Dolphins stink at home against any opponent (0-4)…take the points.

Prediction: Redskins 23 Dolphins 17