NFL Picks Week 10: Underdogs You Can Bet the House on

When it comes to sports, there's nothing like a good underdog. Specifically, you have to like the underdogs that you know are going to shock the world.

Underdogs like these don't come along every day, but they're out there. Concerning Week 10 of the 2011 NFL season, I think there are a couple of underdogs you can have faith in. Not all of them are going to win outright, but they'll do you proud if you pick them.

Let's talk football, shall we?

Note: all spreads according to Bodog.

Denver Broncos (+3.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

They say that Tim Tebow is a born winner, but he did more than win this past Sunday against the Oakland Raiders; he lit up the stat sheet, too.

There are a couple reasons Tebow's latest start was success. The first is that he got a lot of help from his running game. The second and more important reason is that the Broncos utilized a system perfectly designed to take advantage of Tebow's talents, such as they are.

If this system proves to be successful against the Chiefs, the Broncos are going to start piling up points like they did in Oakland. This is going to be a problem for the Chiefs, as they don't have the kind of offense that is built to win shootouts. They need to control the tempo of the game by running the football, and games can get away from them if Matt Cassel is asked to do too much.

It may sound like I'm being a little too quick to trust Tebow and the Broncos, but I really liked what I saw from them on Sunday. I'm taking them to win this game outright.

New England Patriots (+1) at New York Jets

A couple weeks ago, I don't think any of us expected to be concerned about New England's offense at any point this season. But because the Pats have scored 20 or fewer points in three straight games, you have to worry about their offense these days.

That said, I still think the Pats are a better team than the Jets. The Jets have looked better in recent weeks, but I view them as a football team with plenty of weaknesses. 

If the Pats return to form, the Jets are going to be in for a long afternoon. Much like the Chiefs, the Jets don't have the kind of offense that can keep up in a shootout, so they're going to be in trouble if the Patriots get back to looking like the Patriots.

It's going to happen sooner or later. It just happen to think that it's going to happen sooner.

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+1)

Right now, I think the Saints and Falcons are about as evenly matched as any two teams in the league, and they are very similar in many respects.

When you look at these two teams, you see teams with dangerous offenses and defenses that are merely decent. Because of that, actually picking a winner for this game is extraordinarily difficult.

The reason I think the Falcons have the edge is because of their running game. Michael Turner is as steady as they come, and feeding him the ball early and often is a good way for the Falcons to wear the Saints down. Next thing you know, Matt Ryan could hit Julio Jones with a bomb, which is something he did twice in Week 9.

Additionally, I give the Falcons the edge because they have the home-field advantage. They'll get it done.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

The Bengals have surpassed expectations in a big way this season, but they haven't yet proved that they belong in the AFC North. To do that, they need to knock off the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Had you asked me a couple weeks ago, I would have told you there's no way the Bengals win this game. But right now, I like their chances. Cincinnati's defense has been playing at a high level all season, and Andy Dalton is getting better every week.

Don't be surprised if this game is a lot like the Steelers-Ravens clashes we've seen in recent years. It's going to be a hard-fought, low-scoring game, and in the end I think the Bengals will take it.

If they do, the rest of the AFC is going to be on high alert.

Minnesota Vikings (+14) at Green Bay Packers

Before we go any further, I'm not foolish enough to suggest that the Vikings are actually going to win this game. The Packers are too good to lose a game at home to a team like the Vikings.

But the Vikings deserve more credit than a 14-point spread. The Packers only beat them by six points in their first meeting, and the Vikings just aren't as bad as they were in the early portion of the season.

The decision to start Christian Ponder has a lot to do with this. He's been able to hold his own so far, and the Vikings' offense has been much more effective as a result. This is largely thanks to the fact that Adrian Peterson isn't facing eight men in the box on every down.

The Packers will win this game, but don't expect them to cover.