NFL Fact or Fiction: Will Andrew Luck Be a Bust?

Stanford Cardinal quarterback Andrew Luck is dominating the Pac-12 and is the consensus No. 1 pick for this spring's NFL draft, but Phil Simms mentioned something that has some people second-guessing his true professional potential.

He questioned Luck's arm strength and suggested the young prospect won't be able to make all the throws at the next level. 

Does Luck have what it takes to be a premier NFL quarterback? Is Simms' prediction fact or fiction? Let's see.

Throws an Accurate Ball

Luck is already more accurate than most NFL quarterbacks. He releases a perfect spiral nearly every time he throws, and he is still extremely accurate when he throws on the run.

CBSSports.com's scouting report boasts Luck's "Pro Bowl-caliber accuracy." His delivery is smooth and controlled, and the result is receivers catching the ball in stride.

The stats back up the delivery. Luck has completed 194 of 272 passes this season, 71.3 percent. Against UCLA, Luck completed 85 percent of his passes, tossing the ball exactly where he pleased en route to a 45-19 win.

Arm Strength Is Good but Could Be Better

Phil Simms' big gripe about Luck was that he doesn't have the top-notch arm strength to make every NFL throw and that he lacks the ability to gun the ball into tight spaces.

He is correct in saying that Luck doesn't have the zip on his passes that some elite NFL quarterbacks do. Brett Favre, Dan Marino, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Aaron Rodgers all can or could toss laser beams across the field when they needed to. Luck hasn't quite shown that ability.

Let's be clear: Luck has a good enough arm to be a highly effective NFL quarterback. It just remains to be seen whether he'll be able to fire fastballs through the air like some of the game's greats.

Moves Well in the Pocket

Luck has shown great polish in the pocket, and most of that is due to his solid footwork. His keen awareness of his surroundings in the pocket aid him in positioning himself to make all the right throws.

He has the discipline to shuffle to the open spots, maintain his balance and square up downfield to toss gems all over the field. 

This will come in handy at the next level, where he'll be facing a little more pressure than he does from the likes of Oregon State or San Jose State.

Relies a Bit Too Much on Check Downs

Although Luck has excellent vision and reads defenses with the best of them, there is one area that Luck could work on. B/R writer Justis Mosqueda's scouting report discusses the fact that oftentimes Luck either checks down to his running back or locks in on one receiver.

This might be applauded by those who hate to see reckless throws, but I'd like to see Luck air it out and spread it around just a bit more. Again, this is just an adjustment that he will be working on.

Mobile and Athletic

One of the most impressive aspects of Luck's game is his mobility. He can scramble outside the pocket to keep plays alive, roll out and throw on the run, or tuck it and run for yardage.

Luck doesn't have blazing speed, but he's athletic enough to keep defenses on their toes and work hard to corral him. When he does scramble, he's not afraid to use his 235-pound frame to finish off runs physically.

This season, he's rushed 29 times for 147 yards and a couple of touchdowns, averaging 5.1 yards per carry. His combination of physicality and athleticism is something NFL coaches love about him.

Must Be More Cautious About Running

Unfortunately, Luck needs to work on choosing his battles. He needs to learn when to run and when to refrain.

When he becomes an NFL franchise's $40 million man, his coach isn't going to want to see him lowering his shoulder to finish runs against Brian Urlacher.

Exercising prudence when it comes to aggressiveness is a maturing process that every quarterback goes through. Luck will have to learn the proper timing and situation to run downhill against NFL defenses.

Gritty Competitor and Prime-Time Leader

Toughness and leadership are must-haves for a quarterback in the jungle that is today's NFL. Luck undoubtedly has those intangibles.

Stanford has been an elite college football program for the past few seasons, and it has seen its fair share of landmark games. Luck has shown he can step up to the task when the lights are brightest. 

Last season's Orange Bowl masterpiece and this season's knock-down, drag-out battle against USC are just a couple of examples of Luck stepping up as a prime-time leader. 

Size

It doesn't hurt to be 6'4", 235 pounds as a quarterback. Luck has the kind of body that will allow him to see over the line, read the defenses and handle the physicality of the professional ranks.

Smart and Mature

The son of former Houston Oiler and current West Virginia athletic director Oliver Luck, Andrew Luck doesn't just have a good head on his shoulders. He is a well-rounded young man who is exceedingly intelligent and mature.

He's the kind of kid who is just as good in the classroom as he is on the field. Sounds cliche, but it's completely true when it comes to Luck. His smarts and common sense translate to the football field, where he diagnoses defenses with surgical proficiency.

Luck Will Be a Bust? Fiction

Phil Simms may have revealed one aspect of Luck's quarterbacking that isn't golden, but there are way too many positive components to his game to think he will be a bust.

Scouts love the way he plays the game, and Stanford loves the way he's catapulting it toward BCS National Championship contention. His size, skills and intangibles are already pro-worthy, and with the right fit, he could become one of the best signal callers in the NFL within a few years.