NFL Picks Week 9: Big Favorites You Must Be Cautious of

If we learned one thing in Week 8, it's that you can't rely too heavily on big favorites to cover the spread. Or even to win, for that matter.

We know this thanks in large part to the St. Louis Rams. They came into their tilt with the New Orleans Saints as double-digit underdogs and proceeded to give the Saints a beating, winning 31-21.

So a word to the wise—beware big favorites.

In Week 9, that means to beware these four matchups.

Note: all spreads according to Sportsbook.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-8.5)

The Saints are on this list only partially because of their loss in St. Louis. The main reason they're on this list is because the Bucs have already beaten them this season.

That was back in Week 6, when the Bucs intercepted Drew Brees three times en route to a 26-20 win. It was a job well done.

I don't expect the Bucs to beat the Saints twice in a row, but I do think this is going to be a close game. Bucs running back LeGarrette Blount returned to practice on Wednesday (see AP report), and he should be good to go after missing two games with a knee injury.

He's going to help the Bucs control the clock, and I think that is going to make a big difference in the grand scheme of things.

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys (-12)

The big question in this game will be whether or not the Seahawks can generate any offense whatsoever. Given the way they've been playing in recent weeks, this is an iffy proposition.

That said, you have to keep in mind that Tarvaris Jackson just threw for more than 300 yards against one of the best pass defenses in the league in the Cincinnati Bengals. If he can keep it up, he and the Seahawks may surprise the Cowboys.

Besides, we're talking about a Cowboys team that is extremely unpredictable offensively. They're just as likely to score less than 20 points as they are to score more than 20, and Seattle's defense is actually halfway decent.

So if you ask me, 12 points is a bit much.

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-8)

Tim Tebow will once again be under the spotlight, but the bigger question marks in this matchup lie with Oakland.

For starters, will Carson Palmer be ready to carry the offense? Secondly, will Darren McFadden's injured foot allow him to play? And if it does, how much will he play?

Question marks like these make me feel like the Raiders are going to be in for another long day offensively. I doubt they'll have any trouble handling Tebow, but it's hard to see them pulling away.

As such, I think you can expect a hard-fought game that will do down to the wire.

New York Giants at New England Patriots (-8.5)

Anybody else get the feeling that this game is going to be a shootout?

Shoot, that's what I'm thinking. The Patriots are going to come out swinging after getting schooled in Pittsburgh, and the Giants should be able to score plenty of points against a Patriots defense that kinda sucks.

And remember, we're not talking about the regular old Eli Manning.

He's been very good this year, and I don't think he's going to have much trouble against a Pats defense that ranks dead last in the NFL against the pass.

By the time this one's over, expect plenty of points, but not a very wide margin of victory. I think the Pats are going to win this one by a touchdown or less.