NFL Week 9 Picks: Avoid These Vastly Overrated Home Favorites

Don’t be hypnotized by the location.

Just because a team plays at home doesn’t mean they deserved to be favorite by three additional points.

In the following two Week 9 affairs, this mantra especially rings true:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals -3.5

The Cards shouldn’t be favorites against anybody aside from maybe the Colts.

QB Kevin Kolb is playing like one of the five worst quarterbacks in the league and seems to throw off his back foot more often than any QB in the NFL ever should. He isn’t making smart reads and has as many touchdowns (eight) as interceptions. It’s clear he was a backup in Philly for a reason.

The running game is 25th in the NFL because of the fragile RB Beanie Wells. He’s great when in the game, but is seemingly hurt every other week. He is questionable for Sunday.

The worst part of their team is the pass defense. CB Patrick Peterson may have been a top-five pick, but he’s getting schooled for at least one big play almost every game. Only two teams in the NFL give up more yards than the Cardinals.

The Rams are coming off a romp of the Saints. Finally their defense made big plays and the running game looked great with Steven Jackson running for 159 yards.

With Sam Bradford set to return, the offense should be rather explosive with WR Brandon Lloyd getting more comfortable by the week.

In the battle of the basement in the NFC West…your best bet is to take the points.

Key Trends:

Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a losing home record.

Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five vs. NFC West.

Cardinals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.

Prediction: Rams 24, Cardinals 20

New York Giants @ New England Patriots -9

The Pats were exposed last week.

Their pass defense is atrocious—like worst-in-the-league bad.

Eli Manning and the pass-happy Giants are going to be airing out the ball upwards of 40 times. With WR Mario Manningham’s big game last week, the Giants now have another dangerous weapon to go along with Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz.

Sure the Pats are a perfect 3-0 at home in Foxboro and the Pats historically are incredibly difficult to beat at home, but we aren’t asking the G-Men to win outright.

I fully expect QB Tom Brady to pick apart the average Giants pass defense, and avoid the pressure of Justin Tuck and Co. upfront. He’ll utilize Wes Welker out of the slot for a lot of quick slants over the middle to keep the defense honest to set up the deep ball for Deion Branch.

In a rematch of the helmet-catch Super Bowl, I think the Pats win, but will have to sweat it out.

Key Trends:

Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Prediction: Patriots 38, Giants 31