Falcons vs. Colts: Can Indianapolis Pull the Upset This Weekend?

Last weekend, the St. Louis Rams entered the game winless and without their franchise quarterback Sam Bradford.  Many thought the Rams would be the worst team in the league at season's end. 

They played the New Orleans Saints, who just one week earlier beat the Indianapolis Colts by 55 points on national television.

No one saw this coming—the Rams would upset the Saints and get their first win of the year.

Enter this week's game with another similar scenario.  The Atlanta Falcons are in the NFC South and facing a road test against a winless team in the Colts, who are without their franchise quarterback.

The Colts are returning to Lucas Oil Stadium coming off of a three-game road trip.  They always play well in front of the home crowd.

The Colts hold the all-time lead on the Falcons 13-1, including 3-0 since the 2001 season.

The last/only time the Falcons beat the Colts was in 1998.  The Colts hold a perfect 6-0 record against the Falcons when they play at home.

If we play the game just off of history, the Colts will win by their average win margin of three scores.

The bad news for the Colts though, is we actually play the game on the field and not on paper.

The Falcons enter the game Sunday 4-3 and coming off of a bye week; they're 5-2 the last seven seasons following a bye.

If the Colts play the Falcons of 2011 and not 2010, they actually do have a chance.

The Colts can catch the Falcons in a trap game in which they could have been looking ahead in their week off. 

Usually after a bye week, I'd say the team on the bye has a huge advantage because they could prepare an extra week, but how much time did coach Mike Smith really put into preparing for a winless Colts team when he has a home matchup against division-rival and main-threat New Orleans Saints a week later?

The Colts are a hard team to prepare for right now anyways.  I don't even think the coaching staff knows what they're doing. 

Check that—I know they don't know what they're doing.

It's hard to prepare for a team like that.

The Falcons come into Sunday averaging 22.6 points per game, which is 17th in the league.  They average 335 pass yards per game which is also 17th.  The running game averages 112.7 yards per game which is 18th.

Those are below-average numbers for a team that has so many weapons.

Matt Ryan is only 154-of-252 this season which is only 61.1 percent.  I would have thought he'd be near the 70 percent range.  He's passed for 1,683 yards and nine touchdowns, but he's also thrown eight interceptions and has been sacked 18 times.

The Colts defense knows how to pass rush, especially at home with the crowd behind them.  The Falcons have shown obviously they're struggling to keep Ryan up and he's struggled because of that.

I think the Colts will be able to do get to him on Sunday.

Call me crazy and maybe I am, but with the Falcons struggling to give Ryan time, it falls right into the Colts' lap.

I know they struggle to cover receivers and the Falcons have some good ones in Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez and Julio Jones, but I think they can contain them on Sunday.

One thing that beats the Colts that other teams have success with is the running back screen or throwing to the back.  That has been keeping the Colts defense on their toes and they can't get much of a rush.

The Falcons haven't done that much this year.  Michael Tuner only has seven receptions out of the backfield all year.  That's an average of just one per game.

Turner has been affective on the ground in rushing for 621 yards and six touchdowns on 138 attempts, but he's the only one they have.

The Colts have done a decent job the last few weeks, minus the New Orleans game, in stopping the run.  Matt Ryan is the second-leading rusher on the Falcons team, if that says anything.

All of those factors mixed with the Colts playing at home make me believe the Colts can win.

The Falcons have been bad in their three losses this year.  If the Colts can keep them out of the end zone often, statistics show the Falcons usually lose.

In their three losses they scored 12, 13 and 14 points against the Bears, Bucs and Packers, respectively.  All three of those teams brought pressure.  I think the Colts should be smart enough to see that.

If the Colts don't bring pressure and sit back, I'll admit it could get ugly.

Another factor the Colts have is they have nothing to lose by bringing all heat.  They've already been beaten by a franchise-worst 55 points and are winless.  Why not try doing what other teams have successfully done against the Falcons?

These players are sick of losing and feel disrespected by the "Suck for Luck" talk.  I think this team will be dangerous with the anger they have.

The home crowd can play a factor as well.

I've always known and have been taught that if you let a desperate winless team hang out long enough, they will win.

If you let the Colts hang around long enough, not just the players, but the crowd will get hope and make a ton of noise as well.  Lucas Oil is a tough place to play when the crowd is energized.

I think the Colts will be around long enough to win one finally and start to get on a roll.

Prediction: Indianapolis 27 Atlanta 24 (Overtime)

I'm going on a limb here and expecting Adam Vinatieri to kick the Colts to their first win.  I could be crazy, but I'm going all out in this pick.