NFL Picks Week 8: One Big Stat To Know from Each Game

Week 8 in the NFL should prove to be the most entertaining so far. There are two former champs with seven combined Super Bowl appearances in the last decade going at it in the New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers. 

The Dallas Cowboys could end the Philadelphia Eagles' Super Bowl hopes by dropping the Dream Team to 2-5. A future superstar takes on another rookie trying to make his own name when Cam Newton and Christian Ponder go at it.

Stats never tell the whole story, but there are some intriguing numbers in all 13 Week 8 games.  

Arizona Cardinals at Baltimore Ravens

Key Stat: Five

That is the amount of games the Arizona Cardinals have lost in a row coming into this week. Kevin Kolb was supposed to be the player to make the Cardinals contenders in the AFC West again, but he has been anything but.

Kolb has a QB rating under 80 and as many interceptions as touchdowns. Things do not get any easier for the Cardinals or their quarterback against the Baltimore Ravens’ top-ranked defense. 

Pick: Ravens 24-10

Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

Key Stat: Two

The number of potential franchise-saving rookie quarterbacks starting on Sunday. Cam Newton has been a huge success for the Carolina Panthers. Another key stat: three—the rank of the Carolina Panthers offense. Quite the improvement from the Panthers’ 32nd-ranked offense in 2010.

In his lone start, Christian Ponder turned some heads as well. His box score was OK: 219 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions against the defending champion Green Bay Packers. What is more important is the energy the Minnesota Vikings showed. The team seemed inspired, which is more than could be said with Donovan McNabb at the helm.

Obviously it is way too soon to tell, but we could be seeing the future elite NFC quarterbacks in this game.

Pick: Panthers 31-28

Miami Dolphins at New York Giants

Key Stat: Zero 

Yes, this is the amount of wins the Miami Dolphins have on the season. After Sunday it is also the amount of games the New York Giants have left against teams under .500 outside of their division.

The Philadelphia Eagles at 2-4 represent the only team with a losing record left and they could get hot in a hurry. The rest of the schedule includes the New England Patriots, New Orleans Saints, Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers.

The Giants can absolutely not afford a trap-game loss to the Dolphins if they want to win the NFC East. 

Pick: Giants 24-14

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams

Key Stat: 24.8

The difference in average points scored between the New Orleans Saints (34.1, tops in the NFL) and St. Louis Rams (9.3, last). To make matters worse, the Rams may be relying on A.J. Feely this weekend. Blowout alert anyone? 

Pick: Saints 34-10

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Key Stat: 23

Of the four major statistical team categories (passing yards, rushing yards, opposing passing yards, opposing rushing yards) that is the Indianapolis Colts’ highest ranking. Their “high” ranking for opposing passing yards is probably due to the 151 yards per game they allow rushing. Why bother throwing it when you can just run it?

Maybe Chris Johnson and the Tennessee Titans' running game can finally get going against this defense. It’s now or never. 

Pick: Titans 28-13

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos

Key Stat: Two

The number of comeback victories of 13 points or more from which Tim Tebow has led the Denver Broncos back. That is the same number as John Elway. Say what you will about Tebow—there is something in him that just makes his team play better.

Will the Tebow magic last against a team with a ton of talent and a fierce pass rush? We will find out Sunday. Just do not count the Denver Broncos out until the fat lady sings. Twice. 

Pick: Lions 21-14 (as a late Tebow drive is stopped just short)

Washington Redskins at Buffalo Bills

Key Stat: 17

That is the difference in turnover ratio between the two teams. The Buffalo Bills lead the AFC in give/take with nine more takeaways than giveaways. The Washington Redskins are holding strong at minus-six, second-worst in the NFC.

A lot of the Redskins’ turnovers had to do with Rex Grossman. The theory is that John Beck is more accurate and a better decision-maker.

That takes nothing from the Bills, who have been the definition of an opportunistic defense. The Bills D ranks 30^th in the NFL against both the pass and the rush, but their ability to force turnovers keeps them in the game. 

Pick: Bills 28-17

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Key Stat: Top 10

The Houston Texans have very quietly been one of the most well-rounded teams in football. They are no worse than 10th in the NFL in the four major statistical categories. Perhaps injuries to Andre Johnson and Mario Williams (though I think Williams was on his way to major Defensive Player of the Year consideration) are not as bad as feared, as it is forcing other players to step up. 

Rookie Blaine Gabbert is looking for the first winning streak of his career. The Texans have too much firepower for that to happen. 

Pick: Texans 24-10

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks

Key Stat: 31st

The rank of the Seattle Seahawks’ rushing offense in the NFL. The pass has not been much better, ranked 28th. The Cincinnati Bengals defense is in the top five against both the pass and the rush, so this could be a long day for the Seahawks.

The Bengals have been one of the NFL’s surprise teams. In a division that was supposed to be a two-horse race, Cincinnati is tied for the AFC North lead with the Pittsburgh Steelers. To keep up with the big boys, the Bengals have to win the games they are supposed to. 

Pick: Bengals 21-17

Cleveland Browns at San Francisco 49ers

Key stat: .5

That is the difference between what the Cleveland Browns’ pass defense gives up (171.5, best in the NFL) and what the San Francisco 49ers produce (171, second-worst in the NFL).

The 49ers are going to have to establish the rush to win this game. That has not been a problem for them thus far this season, as they accumulate over 130 per game.

Pick: 49ers 21-17

New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers

Key Stat: 28.3 

Sure, I could have gone with 1-6 but anyone who has been watching ESPN has had that pounded into his or her head all week. The stat 28.3 is the margin between the New England Patriots’ top-ranked passing offense and their worst-ranked passing defense. As incredible as Tom Brady has been, his defense is giving up just about all of his hard work.

The Patriots again have the best record in the AFC, but there are more chinks in their armor than years past. Of course, there is the pass defense. In general, their games are a lot closer than we are used to.

The Patriots have definitely had the Pittsburgh Steelers’ number in years past, but with two such elite teams you would think the score has to be settled eventually. I think the Steelers pull the upset (weird calling a defending conference champ playing at home an upset victor), but it is not because the defense slows Brady any more than they have in the past.

No, this time Ben Roethlisberger and his talented receiving corps match Brady pass for pass, with a late touchdown to seal it. Look for a coming-out party from Mike Wallace. 

Pick: Steelers 38-35

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Key Stat: 1

The strengths of the two teams go head to head in this one; the Philadelphia Eagles have the top-ranked rushing offense, and the Dallas Cowboys have the top-ranked rushing defense.

Granted the Eagles’ status is more influenced by Michael Vick than any smash-mouth football being played in Philadelphia. Regardless, whichever trend continues will likely determine the winner. Except for one factor: Can Tony Romo prevent a pick-six against Asante Samuel and Nnamdi Asomugha for 60 minutes? I think one of the Pro Bowlers get the better of him.

Pick: Eagles 24-21

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

Key Stat: Three

The Kansas City Chiefs have scored at least 20 points in three straight games, all wins, to turn their season around. After the first few weeks, the Chiefs offense was anemic and they looked destined to be one of the NFL’s worst teams.

If they take out the San Diego Chargers, all will be forgiven and they will be at the top of the division. I just think the Chargers have too much talent in a hard-fought game.

Pick: Chargers 28-21