NFL Week 8: Selections Against the Spread for Every Game

Last week: 7-5-1.  Season totals: 57-41-5, Pct. .578.  Best Bets: 12-8-1, Pct. .595.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.

SUNDAY

N.Y. GIANTS 20, Miami 3 (+10) — J.P. Losman, who once cost the Bills two first-round draft picks plus one second-rounder, may actually start for the Dolphins here as Miami's comedy of errors at the quarterback position continues.  The water gets mighty deep for the Giants after this one schedule-wise, so they can't afford to slip up—and won't.

CAROLINA 28, Minnesota 21 (+4) — Cam Newton finds himself ahead of another fellow rookie quarterback on the learning curve, and the Vikings suffered blowout losses in both of their two prior visits to Carolina. The home team in this series has won and covered in the last four.

BALTIMORE 17, Arizona 6 (+13) — Kevin Kolb would just as soon forget the first time he played in Baltimore—on Nov. 23, 2008, when he was 10-for-23 for 73 yards and two interceptions, one of which was returned 107 yards for a touchdown.  But the Ravens are likely stone-cold looking ahead to next Sunday night's rematch in Pittsburgh, and when was the last time a team went two-thirds of an entire game without picking up a single first down, as their offense did in Jacksonville Monday night?

TENNESSEE 40, Indianapolis 3 (+9) —- The only other time a team lost 62-7 one week (in the regular season), they lost 40-3 the following week (the Saints having done so in the first two games of the 1973 season).  And the Colts are fully capable of following that same script.

New Orleans 28, ST. LOUIS 17 (+13) — Guess I'm taking in all of the neighborhood strays this week—and the Saints have double the looking-ahead issues that the Ravens do, in that their next two games after this are against both of the other two teams in what figures to be a tight three-team race to the wire in the NFC South: Home to Tampa Bay, followed by at Atlanta.

HOUSTON 30, Jacksonville 13 (+9 1/2) — Gary Kubiak is broadly hinting that Andre Johnson will be back this week.  And here looking ahead's mirror image, letdown, is the deciding factor: The Jaguars are in for one beauty of one of those after their herculean effort, especially on defense, from Monday night.

BUFFALO 24, Washington 7 (+4) — There is nary an able body to be found anywhere on the Washington offense and not only have the Bills beaten the Skins five in a row by a combined 74 points, but Washington is also 5-12 both ways in fatigue games.  Buffalo finally wins one in Toronto.

DENVER 20 (+3), Detroit 13 — The Lions were being way, way overhyped and they haven't won in Denver since 1970.  Tim Tebow should have been a Raider, because he fits that team's "Just Win, Baby" narrative all too perfectly.

New England 34, PITTSBURGH 21 (+1 1/2) — Right now the Patriots are as clearly the second-best team in the NFL as the Packers are clearly the best, and they've won eight in a row off the bye and have covered six of their last seven in Pittsburgh.  If the Steelers aren't looking ahead to next Sunday night's payback game against Baltimore, they might as well be.

SAN FRANCISCO 20, Cleveland 14 (+9 1/2) — Not entirely sold on the 49ers just yet: Oh, they'll win the wretched NFC West by open games, but a deep playoff run is another matter entirely.  Cleveland's defense is playing more than well enough to keep this thing close.

SEATTLE 17 (+2 1/2), Cincinnati 10 — No Cedric Benson this week (one-game suspension) and the Seahawks are 4-0 against the spread at home in the calendar year of 2011 (including last year's regular-season finale and wild-card playoff win, both in January) while Cincinnati is 5-16-1 straight up following a bye week; in percentage terms, that's tied for the worst in the league with the Texans, who are 2-6.

Dallas 30 (+3 1/2), PHILADELPHIA 27 — Yeah, I know all about Fat Boy and his 12-0 lifetime record coming off a bye (15-0 if playoffs are included) — but hadn't the Eagles beaten the Falcons four straight times, the 49ers five and the Giants six until this year?  They have also dropped their last five at home and seven of nine all told dating back to last year's season-ending flameout—and if DeMarco Murray makes it back-to-back 200-yard games facing the dainty Philly front seven it wouldn't shock me one bit.

MONDAY NIGHT

KANSAS CITY 23 (+3 1/2), San Diego 21 — Just as Devil's Night and Halloween supposedly exist to give the evil spirits one last fling before All Saints and All Souls days, the underdogs will get one last fling before traditionally favorite-dominated November and December.  Philip Rivers simply doesn't look right this season, and people are starting to notice.

BEST BETS: TENNESSEE, BUFFALO, NEW ENGLAND