NFL Week 8 Picks: Why Tom Brady and the Patriots Spank Steelers

New England Patriots (-3.0) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (spread courtesy of Covers.com)  

Let’s make one thing very clear: Tom Brady owns the Steelers.  

He is 6-1 in his career against them and has absolutely torched their highly touted defense. He’s thrown for 2,008 yards and 14 touchdowns, with only three interceptions against them in his career.

Matt Williamson of ESPN’s Scout Inc. has a simple explanation for this phenomenon:  

"It's just a terrible matchup for the Steelers. Any time you design a defense or offense, you're going to have strengths and weaknesses. ... Their defense isn't a good fit for the Patriots. If you're just looking at the roster, you want to force the Steelers to play nickel. You want to take Casey Hampton off the field when he's healthy and replace him with William Gay. Hampton is a good player and Gay isn't. The Patriots have the weapons and the receiving threats to do that."

One of the reasons defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau has the Steelers near the top of the rankings every year is because of all of the exotic zone-blitz schemes that punish opponents that are confused. The AFC North, teams most familiar with the basic concepts, never seem to fall into the traps that other opponents do.

Then there’s Brady, who is potentially the smartest player in the NFL. You also have to remember that James Harrison, one of the top five linebackers in the game, is out with an injury, and the O-line is still incredibly banged up. QB Ben Roethlisberger may not have shown much of a limp last week, but his foot didn’t magically heel in the span of two weeks.

It’s impossible to ignore all of the recent trends ATS in favor of the Pats: Patriots are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Pittsburgh. Patriots are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.  

Sure, Roethlisberger will have a few big plays to Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown on the soft Patriots pass defense, but it won’t be enough to keep up with an offense that been down-right abusive to the Steelers of late.

One final stat: The Patriots are 8-0 after the bye since 2003.

Prediction: Patriots 38, Steelers 25