2012 NFL Mock Draft: Highly Touted Studs Who Are Guaranteed Busts

I know which players NFL franchises should stay away from in the 2012 draft. It is the ones with the most potential to bust.

Athletic ability can blind NFL franchises from bust-alicious red flags, and teams end up with an overpaid underachiever that brings little to the table. 

A string of bad first-round choices can derail a franchise, and Super Bowls are won by the teams that draft well. The teams that that avoid the draft busts.

That led me to to factoring in the bust potential in the evaluation of each player in my first-round NFL mock draft.

Players are graded on a bust scale ranging from 1-10, with one being the lowest and 10 being the highest.

*Note: I included underclassmen that may ultimately decide to return to school.

No. 1 Indianapolis Colts, QB Andrew Luck, Stanford

Why He Fits

He fits because he is Andrew "Freaking" Luck.

And that is really the only reason the Colts would pick him up. They have a fairly decent QB that plans on returning next season.

However, Luck's value is just too great to pass up.

The Colts will either trade this pick, trade Manning and start rebuilding, or hold onto both for a year, and then trade Manning.

Potential Bust Factor: 1

No player should have a zero bust factor, but Luck would be the closest. There is not one red flag concerning Luck.

No. 2 Miami Dolphins, QB Matt Barkley, USC

Why He Fits

The Dolphins are still looking for Dan Marino's replacement.

Chad Henne actually looked better this year before being injured, but not good enough that the Dolphins should pass on drafting a QB with Barkley's skill.

Barkley is having a fantastic season. He has eased any concern scouts had about his accuracy and decision-making. He is hitting 68 percent of his passes and only has four interceptions.

Potential Bust Factor: 4

As I mentioned, Barkley has greatly improved his accuracy and decision making, but maintaining these improvements in the speed of the NFL is not guaranteed.

Barkley could revert to old habits in the face of NFL defenses. Still, his bust quotient for a QB is low. This kid has all the tools, and he has shown that he knows how to make improvements in his game.

No. 3 St Louis Rams, Justin Blackmon, WR, Oklahoma State

Why He Fits

The Rams need to add explosiveness to their offense. The trade for Brandon Lloyd will help, but they need a home run threat who can grow with Bradford.

Blackmon is slipping on draft boards, but I believe once this kid gets to the combine he will be soaring again. He has all the tools and skills to succeed.

Potential Bust Factor: 6

The physical knock on Blackmon is he isn't explosive off the line. At  6'1", he is not the biggest receiver and may have a hard time getting off the line. There is a chance he could struggle against NFL secondaries that are bigger and faster.

Also, Blackmon has an arrest for a DUI. While this may be just a youthful bad decision, it may also be indicative of a bigger problem.

No. 4 Arizona Cardinals, Matt Kalil, OT, USC

Why He Fits

The Cardinals pegged Kevin Kolb as their future. Kolb has shown flashes this season, but he isn't finding any consistency because the Cardinals aren't giving him enough time to do so.

Kalil is a great LT prospect. This is the player who was good enough to keep Tyron Smith at RT at USC. He is strong in the run and pass game, and he appears to still be growing into his body.

Potential Bust Factor: 4

Kalil is 6'7" and 295 pounds. While this suggests he has the frame to add more weight, there is a slight worry that as he bulks up he will slow down, and if he doesn't bulk up, he won't be able to handle the stronger defensive ends.

No. 5 Jacksonville Jaguars, Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

Why He Fits

The Jaguars need to replace an aging Rashean Mathis. Claiborne would do that and then some. Claiborne may not be as talented as last year's teammate Patrick Peterson, but he is really close.

And, like Peterson, he has the ability to add return skills to the team that drafts him.

Potential Bust Factor: 2

Claiborne has all the tools. If he stays healthy, he will be at least an average No. 1 corner and possibly top 10.

No. 6 Carolina Panthers, Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

Why He Fits

Cam Newton needs a big play receiver to grow with.

Jeffery is this year's Julio Jones. His size to speed ratio is too much to pass on. He is near tight end size at 6'4" and 230 pounds, but he runs like a receiver.

Potential Bust Factor: 6

Jeffery is not producing like the typical No. 6 pick. This is easily attributal to the horrible excuse for QB play he has received, but it raises concerns that he is not prepared to run the consistent routes needed from a No. 1 receiver.

No. 7 Minnesota Vikings, Jonathan Martin, OT, Stanford

Why He Fits

The Vikings need someone to block for Adrian Peterson and keep Christian Ponder upright.

Martin has had a stellar career at Stanford. He is an elite pass blocker, and is quickly becoming one of the nation's better run blockers.

Potential Bust Factor: 2

Martin is pro ready right now. He has the size and technique to be an adequate left tackle from day one.

You could cite the concern that he has hit his peak, and he will never be elite, but it is hard to see any reason he won't at the very least be an average LT.

No. 8 Seattle Seahawks, Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

Why He Fits

Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst are not the long term answer for the Seahawks at QB. Robert Griffin could be. Griffin is displaying insanely awesome decision making and accuracy this year.

He has a solid arm, and he is a fantastic athlete. The sky is the limit for Griffin.

Potential Bust Factor: 7

Griffin is only 6'2". He makes up for this with his mobility, but he could have a hard time with passes getting batted down and vision while in the pocket.

And, as with any QB that likes to run, there is always the chance that he will run themselves into huge hits and onto the IR.

No. 9 Philadelphia Eagles, Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Why He Fits

The Eagles are in desperate need of offensive line help. Michael Vick is getting pounded into oblivion. Reiff would be an excellent start.

Reiff has excellent footwork and would likely be ready to start Week 1. He could start at guard or right tackle while developing into a left tackle.

Potential Bust Factor: 3

Reiff may not turn into an elite left tackle, but this guy is going to be a good player somewhere on the line.

No. 10 Denver Broncos, Dre Kirkpatrick, CB, Alabama

Why He Fits

Champ Bailey can't play forever. Kirkpatrick is an excellent replacement plan. Kirkpatrick is 6'3" and 195 pounds, and he can run with receivers.

He is a solid tackler and plays with passion.

Potential Bust Factor: 5

Kirkpatrick may just be too tall to hang with quick receivers. And there are plenty of those in the NFL. That was the case when he was beat on a 65-yard touchdown by speedy Florida wideout Andre Debose.

No. 11 Cleveland Browns, Vontaze Burfict, LB, Arizona State

Why He Fits

The Browns defense is having a solid season. Their LBs are playing well, but D'Qwell Jackson is on the last year of his deal, and Scott Fujita is close to retiring.

Burfict is a talented and versatile linebacker. He will be able to rush the passer, play the run and cover. I expect him to be the first LB taken.

Potential Bust Factor: 7

Burfict has a tendency to lose his head in games. This costs his team penalties, yards and momentum.

These problems may be intensified as he learns the ropes of the NFL.

No. 12 Kansas City Chiefs, Landry Jones, QB, Oklahoma

Why He Fits

Matt Cassel is a flawed QB. And he is about to to turn 30. The Chiefs will be ecstatic if Jones is still on the board when they pick.

Jones has all the tools teams look for in a franchise QB.

Potential Bust Factor: 3

Jones would be able to sit and learn behind Cassel. This would limit his exposure to early failures and give him a season to bulk up. This kid has a bright future, and there is little that could derail him.

No. 13 Tennessee Titans, Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Why He Fits

Tennessee's defensive line is showing its weakness. Arian Foster ran right through them. Coples would instantly upgrade this line. He is the perfect end for a 4-3 system.

He can rush the passer and stuff the run.

Potential Bust Factor: 3

Coples is a great blend of size and athleticism. He also has the production to show he will have an easy adjustment to the NFL.

No. 14 Dallas Cowboys, Stephon Gilmore, CB, South Carolina

Why He Fits

The Cowboys lack depth in their defensive backfield, and they need someone to groom to be a shutdown corner.

Gilmore is a complete corner. He is great in the run game, and he can take INTs to the house when he makes them. He is also a capable blitzer.

Potential Bust Factor: 5 

Gilmore is not going to struggle with the physical side of being a corner, but he may struggle to keep up with quicker receivers.

No. 15 Washington Redskins, Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame

Why He Fits

Rocky McIntosh is not well equipped for the Redskins defense. They will look to upgrade their ILB position, and Te'o would be an excellent fit.

He is a big, physical player with a nose for the ball, and he would likely be an instant upgrade in the run game.

Potential Bust Factor: 6

Te'o may not be fast enough for the NFL. Players who often excel in college because of heart and instincts are often run right out of the NFL.

No. 16 Chicago Bears, Mike Brewster, C, Ohio State

Why He Fits

The Bears need linemen. I know this. You know this. Jay Cutler certainly knows it. Brewster is a very solid all-around center. He would be able to come in and start in Week 1.

Potential Bust Factor: 2

Brewster has all the tools and attitude to succeed. It would seem that only injury could derail him.

No. 17 New York Jets, Courtney Upshaw, DE/OLB, Alabam

Why He Fits

The Jets need youth and speed on their defense. They need someone they can send off the edge and have them get to the QB.

Upshaw is that kind of player. He has the athleticism to get to the passer, and the strength to hold the edge against the run.

Potential Bust Factor: 3

This guy is going to be able to contribute. He may not ever turn into an elite pass rusher, but he will be a solid all-around player.

No. 18 Cincinnati Bengals Via Oakland, Lamar Miller, RB, Miami

Why He Fits

Cincinnati needs someone to take over for Cedric Benson. Miller would give the Bengals a young stud at running back to pair with Andy Dalton and AJ Green in a promising offense.

Miller has the speed to break off big runs, and he has the toughness to run between the tackles.

Potential Bust Factor: 6

Miller is coming from a dysfunctional Miami team and would be going to a Bengal team that is a haven for dysfunction.

No. 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Alfonzo Dennard, CB, Nebraska

Why He Fits

Dennard fits because the Bucs can't count on corner Aqib Talib. Dennard has the skills to be an excellent corner in the NFL. His coverage is ahead of his tackling at this point, but he is still a decent tackler.

Potential Bust Factor: 7

Dennard's bust factor is high not because of ability or attitude, but because of injury concerns. He missed the first three games of the season with a leg injury. This is always a red flag for a corner.

No. 20 Cleveland Browns Via Atalanta, Jayron Hosley, CB, Virginia Tech

Why He Fits

Hosley would give the Browns an excellent young DB tandem with Joe Haden. They currently have little depth behind Haden, and another corner could help make this defense elite.

Potential Bust Factor: 8

Hosley is an overrated prospect. He has excellent ball skills, but his number of interceptions will lead to him being over valued.

He is going to need to bulk up to hang with physical NFL receivers. Once he does, he likely won't be able to keep up with them.

No. 21 Houston Texans, Michael Floyd, WR, Notre Dame

Why He Fits

The Texans need a complement to Andre Johnson. Anyone who has watched that offense since Johnson has been out with a hamstring knows the guys they currently have are not the answer.

Potential Bust Factor: 9

Floyd has the ability to make, but he has the diva attitude to go with it. He has had his share of off-the-field problems at Notre Dame, and you have to wonder if he will put in the work to succeed on the next level.

No. 22 San Diego Chargers, T.J. McDonald, S, USC

Why He Fits

I get the funny feeling that Bob Sanders is not the long-term answer at safety for the Chargers. The Chargers could plug McDonald next to Eric Weddle and call the safety position good for the next decade.

Potential Bust Factor: 5

McDonald has the size and ability to play either safety spot, but this may mean that ultimately he is not suited to play either.

No. 23 Baltimore Ravens, David DeCastro, G, Stanford

Why He Fits

The Ravens need to infuse some youth into their aging offensive line. DeCastro will give them flexibility to play multiple spots as they continue to build their line.

Potential Bust Factor: 2

DeCastro's versatility will limit his bust potential.

No. 24 New York Giants, Alameda Ta'amu, DT, Washington

Why He Fits

The Giants have long favored pass rushing defensive tackles over run stuffers. They could badly use a big body to stick in their and plug some holes on run downs. Ta'amu would do that.

Potential Bust Factor: 7

Ta'amu has limited big time college experience. And men of his size often straddle the line between being a big run stuffer and just big and stuffed.

No. 25 Cincinnati Bengals, Casey Hayward, CB, Vanderbilt

Why He Fits

The Bengals need to replace Jonathan Joseph. They signed Nate Clements this offseason, but he is not a long-term answer.

Hayward would be. He has a nose for the ball and he doesn't shy away from contact. He had 70 tackles in 2010.

Potential Bust Factor: 3

I don't see any red flags with Hayward. He lacks ideal size, but not to the degree it is alarming.

No. 26 Buffalo Bills, Ronnell Lewis, OLB/DE, Oklahoma

Why He Fits

The Bills need LBs to fit their hybrid 4-3/3-4 scheme. Lewis is that guy. He has the size to play inside in the 3-4 and the overall skill to play outside in the 4-3.

Potential Bust Factor: 5

Lewis is a hard hitting linebacker, but he lacks pure athleticism. This could cost him the NFL.

No. 27 Detroit Lions, Barrett Jones, T/G, Alabama

Why He Fits

The Lions have been investing high draft picks on their defensive line. It is now time for them to do that on their offensive line. Jones is a pro ready prospect who is better suited for guard, but would be able to play tackle in a pinch.

Potential Bust Factor: 2

Like many of the linemen in this draft, Jones versatility really limits his bust potential. A failed tackle is tomorrow's successful guard.

No. 28 New England Patriots Via Saints, Brandon Jenkins, DE/LB, Florida State

Why He Fits

The Patriots need a pass rusher. Jenkins has prototypical size/speed combo to be an outstanding rush linebacker in a 3-4.

Potential Bust Factor: 9

While Jenkins has the athleticism, he is struggling this year at DE. If he is unable to handle college tackles as a DE, he will have a hard time rushing the passer in the NFL.

No. 29 Pittsburgh Steelers, Jerel Worthy, DT, Michigan State

Why He Fits

The Steelers need an infusion of youth on their defense. They could start with the center of their defense by adding Worthy to their defensive line.

Worthy is great size for a defensive end in a 3-4. He also has the potential to bulk up to nose tackle size.

Potential Bust Factor: 7

Worthy has a history of inconsistent play. He is going to have to learn to bring it every play if he wants to make it in the NFL.

No. 30 San Francisco 49ers, Janoris Jenkins, CB, N. Alabama

Why He Fits

The 49ers are in desperate need of corner help. They do not have anyone they can leave one-on-one with a receiver and expect a good result. Jenkins has the potential to be that guy.

Potential Bust Factor: 9

Jenkins has the athletic tools, however, he also has a ton of baggage. This baggage saw him traveling from Florida to North Alabama this season, and it could see him traveling right out of the NFL.

He is the ultimate boom-or-bust first-round pick.

No. 31 New England Patriots, Juron Criner, WR, Arizona

Why He Fits

Wes Welker can't continue to catch every pass. Chad Johsnon clearly isn't the long-term answer, and the Patriots would be wise to find the answer in the draft.

Potential Bust Factor: 4

Criner is a big receiver with good hands, and he is a solid route runner. However, he may not have the athleticism to get open in the NFL.

At the very least he will be a solid possession third down receiver.

No. 32 Green Bay Packers, Chase Minnifield, CB, Virginia

Why He Fits

The Packers need to bolster their aging secondary. Minnifield is a talented corner with the tools to be a productive member of the secondary.

Potential Bust Factor: 4

Minnifield doesn't have the look of a shutdown corner, but he is going to be a solid all around corner who can play in man and zone.