NFL Picks Week 7: 5 Stats You Have to See Before You Bet

Another week, another three-team teaser right?

At this point in the season people would like to think they know what to expect from teams on a weekly basis.

But the sharps in Las Vegas do an incredibly good job of taking that knowledge and creating an even playing field for each team with the point spreads and over/under sets.

Some weeks turn out great, while others just don't. It's frustrating but exhilarating at the same time, which is why you come back for more.

Here's a few stats that should help you before you place your bets this week.

* All gambling information has been acquired from the World Features Syndicate, Inc.

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders | Oak -4, O/U 42

With the way the Kansas City Chiefs started the season out, most gamblers mark them down for a loss and decide whether the line is good enough to bet on.

But the Chiefs have managed to put up a good fight over the last three weeks and won their last two—albeit against mediocre competition.

The Oakland Raiders have a new starting quarterback in either Kyle Boller and the newly acquired Carson Palmer against a 17th-ranked Chiefs pass defense. 

The Raiders' passing game was never a strong point this season, however, it's been all about league-leading rusher Darren McFadden and the rest of their ground attack.

The Chiefs have below average run defense ranked 21st in the league, giving up an average of 119.6 yards per game on the ground.

The Raiders' defense has been putrid through six weeks. They are ranked 28th overall, 16th in run defense and 28th in pass defense.

Matt Cassell and Dwayne Bowe have been lighting it up the last few weeks against better defenses than that. The two have hooked up for 302 yards and four touchdowns in the last three weeks.

With the Raiders uncertainty at quarterback and the Chiefs looking like a team on the rise, this is a perfect scenario for an upset over a rising division opponent. 

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins | Car -2.5, O/U 43.5

With all the ranting and raving going on about Cam Newton, people forget that the Panthers are still just a 1-5 team. 

Newton may be capable of bombing it deep to Steve Smith all day to the tune of 308 yards per game, but he also still has more interceptions thrown than touchdowns.

And with all the yards the Panthers have been able to put up on a weekly basis, they have only been able to muster 22.2 points per game. Defensively they have surrendered a preposterous 27.2 points on average.

While the Redskins are a team in transition with a new starting quarterback and a fantasy-owners nightmare at running back, anything is better than the interception machine Rex Grossman has been.

The Redskins' defense is third in the league in points allowed with 16.6 per game and are sixth overall in total defense.

Beck may not have a lot of experience in his five-year career, but he rarely turns the ball over and is a solid game manager for a middle-of-the-pack running game.

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets | SD -2, O/U 44

The Chargers may be 4-1, but those four wins come against opponents with a combined record of 4-17. The Jets defense isn't what it used to be, but San Diego is -5 in in turnover differential despite their easy schedule.

The New York Jets didn't look too convincing in their Monday night game against the Miami Dolphins and the Chargers are coming off a bye week, but bye teams went 1-5 last week and the Jets are tied for second in the league in forced turnovers.

As long as Antonio Gates sits out, Philip Rivers only has one real receiving threat on the field in Vincent Jackson. That makes for an easy day for Darrelle Revis and the Jets pass defense.

This has all the ingredients of an Chargers letdown.

New Orleans Saints at Indianapolis Colts | NO -14, O/U 48.5

It would take a miracle for the Colts to pick up their first win of the season this weekend, but they could very well cover the 14-point spread the sharps have given them. 

Since Curtis Painter has been named the starting quarterback the Colts' passing game has become far more dynamic than they were with Kerry Collins at the helm.

With Collins under center the team averaged about 160 yards passing per game; with Painter that total has risen to about 248.

Although the Colts' pass defense has leaked like a sieve over the last four weeks, allowing 294 yards per game, but over the same time span Drew Brees has thrown an average of two interceptions a game.

With the both teams capable of flying up and down the field with ease, the 44.5 point over/under looks like a great betting option as well.

Seattle Seahawks at Cleveland Browns | Cle -3, O/U 41

Usually it's best to stay away from two teams as unpredictable as the ones involved in this tilt, but this one is just begging for it. 

The Seahawks are coming off their bye week to fly to the Eastern Time Zone, which usually doesn't bode well for West Coast teams, and the Browns have become extremely one-dimensional.

With the over/under at 41 points, it seems highly unlikely that these two teams can perform to that level. With Peyton Hillis out due to injury, Colt McCoy has been forced to throw the ball a lot more than he ever should.

Among active starters, McCoy is averaging a league-worst 5.53 yards per passing attempt, and the Browns are averaging a measly 18.2 points per game.

The Seahawks haven't fared much better with only a slightly better 18.8 points per games and Tarvaris Jackson has been limited in practice this week.

With all the uncertainty on each team's offense, the putrid 37 points per game combined that they are averaging appears to be a safe indicator of a low-scoring affair.