Bowl Previews and Predictions: Volume One

This is a preview of the first six FBS college bowl games, to be played between Dec. 20 and Dec. 23. I'll be keeping track of my record, and at the end of the bowl season, I will write a recap article detailing either my great success or horrendous failure.

EagleBank Bowl: Wake Forest (7-5) vs. Navy (8-4) Dec. 20 11 am ESPN

This is one of the few bowl games where we actually have the benefit of a previous matchup between the two teams. Back in September, the two teams met at Wake Forest, and the outcome wasn’t pretty for the Demon Deacons.

Navy won 24-17, but more importantly, they won the crucial category of turnovers. Wake turned the ball over an astonishing six times, a stat made all the more crazy by the fact they were the FBS leader in turnover margin going into the game. Navy took advantage and killed Wake’s chances.

Navy also dominated time of possession, keeping the ball for 13 more minutes than Wake Forest. Also, the Midshipmen carried the ball for 292 yards against a defense that allowed an average of 116 yards per game on the ground, good for third in conference.

Even though Wake is coming off a victory over a bowl-bound Vanderbilt team, Navy is going to feel more at home in the Washington, D.C. area and will run the football with impunity again against the Demon Deacons.

Projection: Navy 27, Wake Forest 17

New Mexico Bowl: Colorado State (6-6) vs. Fresno State (7-5) Dec. 20 2:30 pm ESPN

The Bulldogs ranked 88th out of the 119 FBS teams in yards allowed per game with 393.5. Their defense also allowed over 30 points per game. Their offense managed 383.3 yards a game, which is six more than their opponent in the bowl, Colorado State.

The Rams’ defense isn’t much better than that of the Bulldogs. They allowed nearly 30 points a game, in addition to allowing 406.1 yards of offense. Their offense scored 23.9 points a game, good for sixth in their conference. They ranked fourth in their conference (behind BYU, TCU, and BCS-bound Utah) in yards per game as well.

On paper, this game seems like a fairly even match. The two teams are within six yards of each other in both yards allowed and yards gained. Colorado State nearly beat BYU, and Fresno State had Wisconsin in its sights before they fell short in the end. Both teams were blown out by undefeated teams.

After barely squeaking by Sacramento State and Houston, the Rams had some really good performances against TCU and BYU and ended up with a 6-6 record to barely squeak into a bowl.

Fresno State is coming off a thrashing at the hands of Boise State, and three of its five losses were at home. They also won a big game at UCLA.

This game is a bit of a crapshoot, but I have a feeling that Colorado State’s good performances against BCS-caliber competition indicate a toughness that I think will be difficult to overcome by the Bulldogs.

Projection: Colorado State 21, Fresno State 17

MagicJack St. Petersburg Bowl: Memphis (6-6) vs. South Florida (7-5) Dec. 20 4:30 pm ESPN2

The Memphis Tigers come into this bowl game with a balanced offensive attack, averaging 205.6 yards a game on the ground and 226.6 through the air. They also are coming off of a massive 45-6 win against Tulane to become bowl eligible.

Meanwhile, the South Florida Bulls are coming in limping. They are 2-5 in conference games this season after starting the season 5-0 in non-conference play, including a victory over Kansas. They are also allowing only 20.6 points a game.

In terms of shared opponents, the Bulls were 1-1 against Louisville (loss) and UCF (win), while Memphis lost to both teams.

The Tigers are third in Conference USA in yards allowed per game, and they have allowed the fewest passing yards in the conference. The Bulls are second in the Big East in yards allowed per game, and they also allowed the fewest rushing yards per game in the conference.

These teams are almost polar opposites on defense, with USF being stingy against the run and Memphis effective against the pass. The real matchup will involve the offenses, featuring South Florida’s passing offense, ranked third in the Big East, and the Tigers’ strong rushing attack, which ranked second in Conference USA.

In bowl games, with the pressure on, it is a lot easier to rush the ball than it is to pass it, and with that in mind, I have to give the slight edge to the Tigers. Also, their aforementioned balance on offense will contribute to a victory.

Projection: Memphis 30, South Florida 24

Pioneer Las Vegas Bowl: BYU (10-2) vs. Arizona (7-5) Dec. 20 8pm ESPN

BYU is a team whose record is a poor indicator of its quality. Although they won 10 games, BYU's two defeats were lopsided spankings by high-ranked schools, in TCU and Utah. Granted, both of these were road games, but a team that’s considered to be one of the better ones in the sport should at least be able to hang in with those guys.

Meanwhile, Arizona had a decent 7-5 season, which included victories against Arizona State (the first one in four seasons) and No. 25 California. They also played tight games against Oregon State and USC as well. The Wildcats, however, were the beneficiaries of a friendly schedule, with all of their difficult games played in Tucson during the year.

Offensively, the edge certainly goes to BYU. They averaged 444.8 yards per game during the season and also scored 35.3 a game. Arizona had a respectable 401.3 yards a game, and they averaged 37.1 points per game. They also had a lot more balanced attack on offense than BYU, which is a pass-happy school.

Defensively, Arizona ranked third in the Pac-10 in passing yards allowed, and it ranked third in points allowed per game with 21.3. BYU, meanwhile, ranked fifth in the Mountain West in passing defense, and they ranked sixth in rushing yards allowed. They did, however, hold opponents to 21.2 points a game.

The points per game allowed are extremely similar between the two schools, but, to me, the main difference is the pass defense of Arizona. If they can play against BYU the same way they did against Mark Sanchez and USC (216 yards), then I think that the Wildcats can score an upset over the Cougars.

Projected score: Arizona 31, BYU 24

R & L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss (6-6) vs. Troy (8-4) Dec. 21 8:15 pm ESPN

Southern Miss comes into this bowl game on an outstanding winning streak. They were 2-6 after a loss to Memphis in October, but after that, they won four straight games by a combined score of 135-35 to become bowl eligible. This included a lopsided win over conference champion ECU and a 70-14 thrashing of UAB.

Troy had a bit more of an up-and-down season. After a 65-0 demolition of Alcorn State, Troy got beaten down two weeks in a row by Ohio State and Oklahoma State. They maintained a more consistent level of play the rest of the season, including a very tight game against a then-ranked LSU squad in Baton Rouge.

Troy's 6-1 conference record was also good enough to take the Sun Belt title.

Defensively, Southern Miss finished second in the conference in points allowed per game (23.8) and fourth in yards allowed. Troy led the Sun Belt in points per game allowed and yards per game allowed. They also had 21 interceptions, which lapped the rest of the conference.

Offensively, Troy averaged 33.3 points a game and featured a balanced attack that finished second in the conference in passing yards and third in the conference in rushing yards. Southern Miss finished fifth in Conference USA with 30.7 points per game, and it finished third in rushing yards per game.

In a battle of a conference champion and the middle runner in the Conference USA, I think that ultimately the game will be decided by the passing prowess of the Trojans—who managed to gain 100 more yards per game than they allowed—and Southern Mississippi’s conference-leading time of possession per game (33:26).

Something has to give, and I think that Troy’s offense will come out victorious.

Projection: Troy 38, Southern Miss 28

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: Boise State (12-0) vs. TCU (10-2) Dec. 23 8 pm ESPN

The first big matchup of the bowl season features the undefeated Boise State Broncos, who are ready to show why they should be in Glendale for a BCS game instead of the Buckeyes. They beat Oregon on the road and demolished Fresno State in an exclamation point to their undefeated season.

The TCU Horned Frogs aren’t exactly slouches, either. They come in sporting a 10-2 record, with their only losses coming at Oklahoma and at Utah (both in BCS games). They also thrashed BYU, outscored a high-powered Air Force squad, and only allowed more than 14 points once the entire season (Oklahoma scored 35).

Defensively, Boise State boasts a gaudy 12.3 points per game allowed, which was third in the nation, and they also allowed 294.5 yards per game, good for 15th in the country. TCU, however, was better, finishing second in the country in both points allowed (10.9) and yards per game (215.1).

Offensively is where Boise State makes its impact. The Broncos average 456.8 yards a game, and they score 39.4 points a game. They also finished 12th in the country in passing yards.

TCU features a potent offense that averages 417.1 yards per game, and the Horned Frogs are also ridiculously balanced, with a shade over 150 yards separating their  rushing and passing totals.

This game is a real toss-up, with Boise State featuring a slightly better offense and TCU featuring a slightly better defense.

The key to me will be which offense can better crack the code of the opposing defense. Also, I think the emotional factor of this being the final one for Fiesta Bowl hero Ian Johnson will be enough of a boost for Boise State to squeak out a victory in a great game.

Projection: Boise State 38, TCU 35

The Sheraton Hawaii, Motor City, Meineke Car Care, Champs Sports, Emerald, and Independence Bowls will be featured in my next bowl preview article, published sometime around midweek.