NFL Predictions: Playoff Predictions After 6 Weeks of the Gridiron

Oh, how playoff pictures for everyone has changed over the first six weeks of the NFL season.  We all had our preseason picks, but after six weeks, I'd be shocked if your six predictions from both conferences are still the same.

That's the joy of the game!  Things are always changing in the NFL and the playoff picture is no different.  With every passing week, we've watched the Philadelphia Eagles be less than a "Dream Team," the Cincinnati Bengals continue to win ball games and the Green Bay Packers dominate in every sense of the word.

Of those three aspects of 2011 I just mentioned, how many of you thought those first two would be true?  I was certainly not in that group. 

After six weeks of examining and evaluating, this is my breakdown of the playoffs we are all anxiously awaiting.

AFC No. 1 Seed: Baltimore Ravens (13-3)

The Ravens came into 2011 as one of the top teams in the AFC.  Despite the Steelers having an AFC Championship campaign in 2010, the Ravens came into 2011 favored.

This was for good reason.  As usual, the team is a defensive powerhouse, letting guys like Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata lead the way.  The defense is currently the third-best in the NFL, but I think all fans and experts can agree that the Baltimore defense is the most feared in the game.

As for the offense, they're statistically average, but they've got a lot to offer.  Ray Rice is my pick to be the rushing champion, and I certainly classify him as a top five running back.  Joe Flacco may not be a top five quarterback, but he's definitely one of the more effective ones. 

Torrey Smith has stepped up in a big way in place of injured receiver, Lee Evans, and he's done a great job being a complement to Anquan Boldin.

Two of Baltimore's big remaining games are road trips to Pittsburgh and San Diego.  This team is really good, and I don't say that loosely at all.  They will lose one of those two tough games, but NOT both.

Which leads me to the third loss.  I expect that by Week 17, the Ravens will have clinched the top seed, and therefore will lose to Cincinnati (in Cincinnati) simply because they're not going to be playing at full strength.

AFC No. 2 Seed: New England Patriots (12-4)

I'd be shocked if anyone thought that the New England Patriots wouldn't be on this list.  The fact is that they're playing some of the best football in the AFC, as per the usual.

Tom Brady hasn't lost a step at all and the offense as a whole is continuing to click.  It's the top-ranked offense in football.

Then there comes New England's defense.  It is dead last.  Talk about a tale of two teams.

The defense against the rush isn't bad, but the Pats' secondary is simply atrocious and allow over 320 yards of passing PER GAME!  It's going to be hard to slow a lot of teams down.

I foresee losses in Pittsburgh and in Philadelphia for sure.  They also have games against the Jets as the visitors, and also play at home against the Giants and Bills.  One of those teams will expose the defensive weakness and be the fourth loss for the Patriots.

Despite the defensive issues, Brady will lead the offensive juggernaut to a first round bye.

AFC No. 3 Seed: San Diego Chargers (12-4)

With the exception of a so-so run defense, this team is a top ten team all around.

Philip Rivers is throwing well.  Vincent Jackson is rejuvenated.  Ryan Matthews is beginning to become the running back we all thought he'd be last year.  Takeo Spikes is tackling everyone who gets near him.

So far, it appears the Chargers have been "re-charged" and are ready for an incredible 2011 run.  I just still question if they're at the next level yet.  2010 was a bad year, and that's just being overlooked right now.  There had to be a reason for it that could still be waiting to happen again.

In any case, they're 4-1 now, and after a Week 9 loss to Green Bay, I expect they'll carry a 12-2 record into Week 16.  They have two tough games to close, which are in Detroit and then in Oakland.

Detroit, in all likelihood, will be in the playoffs by Week 16.  Still, they could also be playing for the division at that point, so I expect the Lions to take down the Bolts.  The Raiders are still an up-and-down team, but they owned the Chargers in 2010, so I see them beating them in Week 17 as well.

AFC No. 4 Seed: Houston Texans (10-6)

Two or three weeks ago, I'd tell you that the Texans were a team vying for the top seed. 

That's just not the case anymore.  They've been without receiver Andre Johnson and linebacker Mario Williams for a couple weeks now, and the effects have been extremely clear.

The Week 6 loss to Baltimore can be excused—it was in Baltimore and as I've mentioned, they're the class of the AFC.  The Week 5 home loss to Oakland isn't so excusable.

Sure, the Raiders aren't bad at all, but even after three seasons of "their year," the Texans cannot be consistent.  That could wind up being a huge problem for them.  The defense has been that way for years, and after a hot start to 2011, they've begun to fall apart.

Despite the dissension, Houston has the advantage of being in a division where two of their three rivals are in a down season.  Tennessee is their main threat, but they're just not good enough to hold back the Texans.

There will be a lot of stumbles and slip-ups along the way, but Houston will sneak into the postseason.

AFC No. 5 Seed: Cincinnati Bengals (11-5)

Okay, I'm going to explain this one logically as opposed to statistically because I know that most of you reading this are angry, shocked, laughing hysterically or some combination of all of them.  Just take a look at my breakdown.

Cincinnati is 4-2 now with the top defense in football.  They've had a bad slip-up against the Broncos (a two-point loss) and an awful game against the 49ers (a five-point loss).  Their next two games are in Seattle and in Tennessee.  They will win against Seattle but lose to Tennessee.

They follow those games up with a home game against the Steelers, and I'm saying now that the Bengals' defense will shut them down and get the win, leaving them at 6-3.  After that, games at home against Cleveland, Houston and Arizona should be wins, as well as the road trip to St. Louis.  There are also away games in Pittsburgh and Baltimore, which will be losses.  Our tally now is 10-5. 

Week 17 is a home game against Baltimore—I said before that I just don't expect the Ravens to be at full strength, so the Bengals seize the opportunity. 

That sums up the Bengals' road, but what about other contenders?  I've got the Raiders finishing 10-6, Jets at 9-7, Titans at 9-7, Bills at 10-6 and Steelers at 10-6.  The Bengals outdo all of them.

Which leads us to the final slot...

AFC No. 6 Seed: Buffalo Bills (10-6)

If I've done the calculations and tiebreakers correctly, then the Bills would just edge out the Steelers by a slim margin to claim the sixth spot in the AFC postseason.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is a man rejuvenated and Fred Jackson is running like one of the best backs in the league.  Their offense has been rolling.

Like their divisional counterparts (the Patriots), the Bills just are so lacking on defense.  They've allowed at least 23 points in five of their six games, and are allowing just under 285 passing yards per game.

These shortcomings could wind up being this team's downfall.  A lot of their games are going to be shootouts, thus meaning that they'll be close.  It's believable that they could wind up 12-4, but the defense has just been too inconsistent.

Still, Buffalo finds a way in for the first time in the 21st century!

NFC No. 1 Seed: Green Bay Packers (15-1)

If I need to explain this slide, then you haven't been watching much football in 2011.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers have been unstoppable since December of 2010.  They've got one of the league's best defenses and none of their games have been all that close so far.

To beat the Packers, you'll have to outdo the offense by beating a lackluster defense.  That sounds like a very basic statement on how to win a game, but outdoing the Packers' offense is not going to be simple for anyone.  However, Green Bay's downfall could be a bad defense.

I see their Week 12 match in Detroit being their only blemish.  Green Bay's basically got home field advantage in their pockets.

NFC No. 2 Seed: New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Drew Brees throwing the football?  Always sounds like a winner to me.

The Saints' offense is currently ranked second overall, and most of that can be attributed to the man under center.  In addition to him, Jimmy Graham is really progressing as a tight end and there are so many runners in the backfield that they almost have to be effective by law.

Their defense is so-so, and that has shown in their two losses this season.  One of those was against Green Bay, so let's not pass judgment on that. 

The rest of the way isn't all that tough.  I see their only loss being in Atlanta, and they'll dominate the rest of the way. 

NFC No. 3 Seed: San Francisco 49ers (12-4)

Who thought this team would even be a playoff contender?  Let alone a pick to compete for a first round bye?

The San Francisco 49ers haven't been all that impressive offensively.  Even in their 48-3 thrashing of Tampa Bay in Week 5, Josh Freeman out-threw Alex Smith, and he had only 187 yards.

Still, despite some occasional troubles on offense, the defense has been tough.  In particular, their run defense has stepped up as one of their legitimate threats to offenses everywhere.

They're the class of the NFC West this year, and we're actually going to get a playoff team with a winning record from the division.  I fully expect to see the Niners sweep the West en route to a great 2011.

NFC No. 4 Seed: Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

Yes, even amongst all the media attention and criticism, the "Dream Team" is going to emerge victorious in the NFC East. 

It's true that through six games, the Eagles have had a real issue with team chemistry and performance.  Their offense hasn't been all that bad—in fact, they have the best rush offense in the league. 

Michael Vick is still Michael Vick, which means I expect to see the same effectiveness and accomplishments begin to emerge eventually.  The problem thus far has been inconsistency.

The defense has twice allowed 13 points in a game, which qualifies as a good performance.  Then during their four losses, they allowed 24 or more throughout all of them.  The offense has been the same way, with Vick tossing for under 200 yards in some games, followed up by 275-plus yard performances.

All the criticism aside, the Eagles still have a good team, and they'll be hosting a playoff game.

NFC No. 5 Seed: Detroit Lions (11-5)

The Lions currently have the longest drought from the playoffs in the NFL—go ahead and write it down that the Lions will break that streak this year.

They've been playing lights out football so far and are showing no signs of stopping.  Matthew Stafford is showing how valuable he is to the team and Calvin Johnson has begun to turn into a receiver of historic proportions.

In addition to a great offense, they've got a fierce defensive line, led by Ndamukong Suh.

Despite good play, their game against the 49ers in Week 6 showed me a lot about how ready they are.  With games against New Orleans, Green Bay and San Diego coming up, I'm interested to see how they play.

NFC No. 6 Seed: Atlanta Falcons (10-6)

Matt Ryan and the Falcons have been a bit of a conundrum so far in 2011.  In the case of my predictions, they just barely beat out the 10-6 Washington Redskins (yet another bold prediction).

If I'm being honest, I'm basing a lot of my judgment on the 2010 Falcons that owned the top seed in the NFC.  Michael Turner and the offensive line have not been as effective as they were last season.

Matt Ryan isn't putting up outstanding numbers either, averaging around 225 yards per game.

Like the offense, the defense is really just getting by.  Still, the Falcons have shown how strong they are and how strong they can be.  I'll keep my faith in them to make a late run.

For the record, other teams fighting for this slot include Washington (10-6), Dallas (9-7), Tampa Bay (9-7) and the New York Giants (8-8).